stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC really gets clobbered. Everyone does OK, really. Step back from the ledge, folks. Until we get confirmation from the GFS/Euro, I think we're all going to be a little on the ledge still. Realistically, we know the NAM likes to go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If this storm gets another shift north, say 20-30 miles, DC to Baltimore will really be in business. Right now it looks like the heavier stuff is just south of BWI to my untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC really gets clobbered. Everyone does OK, really. Step back from the ledge, folks. it is, but I like how the NAM smoothed the northern edge to give peps in southern PA some qpf good sign if you want future drifts to the north imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC really gets clobbered. Everyone does OK, really. Step back from the ledge, folks. Looks like DC basically gets the same QPF as Baltimore, maybe .10 more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If this storm gets another shift north, say 20-30 miles, DC to Baltimore will really be in business. Right now it looks like the heavier stuff is just south of BWI to my untrained eye all of Baltimore, from say Towson on south, is in the .5"-.74" range, so we're good and have room for more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow, you guys do get pounded via this run. How about that. Still we have to see how the rest of the 12z suite comes in. I still think the low can come up a bit further north. How about the Virginia Capes. Time will tell. No doubt, will be eagerly awaiting any changes on these runs, but now everyone is interested in this event.. Plus, the snow may continue into late Sunday night on the back edge of this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So weird to see a 40 south cut off like that. Reminds me 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powhatan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Gorgeous at 60. Very nice hit for basically all of VA. What about RIC? Will it be left or right of the freezing line with the more northerly track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You are kind of like the MA version of CTblizz a bit. Maybe toss in snowNH. Can you tell us more about this "weenie banding signal?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What about RIC? Will it be left or right of the freezing line with the more northerly track? RIC is snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Can you tell us more about this "weenie banding signal?" I just like the 700mb look. It has a nice warm front look to it..probably strong frontogenesis from 850-700mb or so. Basically a strong thermal gradient and probably a good frontal slope where air can rise rather quickly. It looks good for a 4-6 hr band of heavier snows for that area. Probably into BWI and DE too. But it's the NAM and despite it being 48-54 hrs out, I don't have high confidence in the model depictions on where this occurs, since 50 miles will mean everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I admit im a weenie in my posts, but that never affects my maps, ive done well this winter. It's fine, I personally wouldn't guarantee a shift north based on the 12z NAM, but the underlying reasons as to why it could happen are there. I'd wait to see what the rest of the guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nice banding signal wish the Walt Drag site was operational. this looks better and better. CSI and instability too, nice guys. Great - 850 wind too anomalous flow, some body is going to get smoked. Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 RIC is snow on this run. They have some trouble on the 15 and 18z soundings with an elevated warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This one is such a difficult forecast up this way. I hate being on the edge! I think we've all been here probably too many times. I strongly believe heavier precip will fall on the nrn edge than what any of the models are showing. It's going to be a tight gradient. That is fairly certain. I can already see the nowcasting "look at the band setting up to the n&w." We've been here so many times and I don't think this will be any different. I think dca will prob end up with lower totals than whatever the nam shows tomorrow and I think the northern fringe will end up with higher totals. We'll see but man, right now it's very hard not to seriously invest some confidence on a decent event in the metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's fine, I personally wouldn't guarantee a shift north based on the 12z NAM, but the underlying reasons as to why it could happen are there. I'd wait to see what the rest of the guidance does. Im not saying a trend solely via the nam, because the northern stream is trending faster in a season with a fast flow. In addition, the trough looks to tilt a bit earlier with confluence moving out quicker on the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DCA sounding at 21z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Who cares?...it's the NAM.....until the Euro shows a legit storm, there is no storm...just pretty models runs from an inferior model heh, do you really feel this way? lol There's alot of confidence in play here. All of the guidance shows a similar 850 track. That hasn't wobbled nearly as much as the nrn extent of the precip shield. I'm going to take some time later and compare every single 850 track over the last 2 runs with every model in figure out the spread but it really isn't that big. I'm pretty sure of that. The fine details are being worked out now and I really feel like i'm on the right side of the luckometer this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DCA sounding at 21z Sunday Nice look for some potential convective enhancement there. Temps aloft are not cold enough for idea dendrite growth, but I'm just pleased the whole column is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I do believe we will see a jog north...hopefully today, if not then tomorrow....But I don't care what the NAM says...It's fun to look and salivate at....nothing more.....Until the euro is on board, I am a skeptic All models show these features, but yeah..I'm with you on wanting to see the GFS and Euro climb aboard for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I do believe we will see a jog north...hopefully today, if not then tomorrow....But I don't care what the NAM says...It's fun to look and salivate at....nothing more.....Until the euro is on board, I am a skeptic It isn't a guarantee to predict any type of trends yet with the synoptic setup since the overall solution will be highly dependent upon convective development and propagation which is always an uncertainty regarding positive tilt waves with elongated warm fronts such as this. NAM initiates convection early with early DMC never organizing into an MCS with activity quickly becoming elevated above the low level warm front ...low level transport vectors remain poleward oriented. ECMWF does the opposite. No solution is off the table yet in those terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, 12z RGEM at 48 http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I do believe we will see a jog north...hopefully today, if not then tomorrow....But I don't care what the NAM says...It's fun to look and salivate at....nothing more.....Until the euro is on board, I am a skeptic I'm cautiously optimistic. I just compared 850 with the 6z & 12z nam and 0z & 6z gfs. The low is basically in the exact same spot right over Hatteras. The differences in placement are so small that you can't really ever call it differences. The track from there has some slight variations but not much. I only have crappy euro access so I can compare that. Can you compare 850 placement as it goes offshore for me? This is why I'm so confident. We only battling confluence here. The storm is basically locked in. The models are basically yelling SNOW at me. How much is being worked out but I would have to think a 3-5" event is at least 60% probable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM is a solid 6-12 for the area...maybe even a bit higher. I hope this happens folks...good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm cautiously optimistic. I just compared 850 with the 6z & 12z nam and 0z & 6z gfs. The low is basically in the exact same spot right over Hatteras. The differences in placement are so small that you can't really ever call it differences. The track from there has some slight variations but not much. I only have crappy euro access so I can compare that. Can you compare 850 placement as it goes offshore for me? This is why I'm so confident. We only battling confluence here. The storm is basically locked in. The models are basically yelling SNOW at me. How much is being worked out but I would have to think a 3-5" event is at least 60% probable at this point. There is free ECMWF at wunderground.com/wundermap in 3 hourly increments to hour 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm wondering why LWX and Wakefield are being so conservative in their forecasts? A good example here is CHO, which all models show as a 4+ inch hit (most show 8+). Any thoughts on the extremely conservative text forecasts? My apologies if this is in the wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the most surprising thing to me is the the improvement in the bl. A couple days ago I was rooting to stay just fringed enough to maximize snow potential on the nrn edge because rain was clearly on the table. You and ji both rooted for a wrapped up wet event and take chances with the precip. Now everything is pointing to all snow. THAT is something I don't think any of us were expecting and happens very rarely with a very marginal airmass going in. It's pretty much anti-climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm wondering why LWX and Wakefield are being so conservative in their forecasts? A good example here is CHO, which all models show as a 4+ inch hit (most show 8+). Any thoughts on the extremely conservative text forecasts? My apologies if this is in the wrong thread. Forecasts seem pretty balanced to me at this time. At lease those from NWS. I don't think NWS generally puts accumulation forecasts up (I don't see any for LWX right now). My forecast near DC shows chance for rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just remember one thing...whether you are in DC or VA..etc. Just because the precip contours are stratiform and drop off as you move north, the potential snowfall contours will not be. They'll be a second max probably near that nrn edge. I'm just throwing it out there for those who are watching how much QPF models drop for their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There is free ECMWF at wunderground.com/wundermap in 3 hourly increments to hour 180. lol- the embarassing part of this is that I actually had it in my faves but totally forgot about 3hr increments. I've been sticking with raleighs site for too long. 850 on last nights euro takes pretty much the same track as all other guidance. That part of this storm is locked in. We just need the ns to be friendly and my gut is telling me not to worry too much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.