WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like the GFS ensemble members are generally a little south of the op with the precip shield. Being ~48 hours out, we're within the time where the Op is superior (in statistics) to the ensemble mean and the members. Perhaps dtk can comment on how true that still is since the GEFS has been updated, but until told otherwise, I'd trust the Op more than the ensembles at this junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0z euro precip mean dropped the 0.50" line from dc to fredricksburg 1" line went from ric to va beach fwiw Just curious. How far north did the 0.25" line make it? BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we all got a lil giddy with the 00z NAM... which prob way overdone and extreme... I love for it to reappear, but doubt it... I agree with much of what Zwyts has said. I would also like to see a slight north shift starting with the NAM... though 06z NAM was .6-.7 QPF at DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just curious. How far north did the 0.25" line make it? BWI? right on top of bwi 0.10 to philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I may be delusional, but I feel like we have seen this same scenario many times over the years. The models clearly want to give us precip, so to me the massive suppression risk is low now. I am very confident in the next 24 hours we'll see the whole area get painted with .50" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I may be delusional, but I feel like we have seen this same scenario many times over the years. The models clearly want to give us precip, so to me the massive suppression risk is low now. I am very confident in the next 24 hours we'll see the whole area get painted with .50" of precip. I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't happen until 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 09z SREF 24 hr tot precip has 0.5 QPF line right over top of DCA at 72... which basically is a hold when you compare it to the 03z SREF 24 hr tot precip at 78. Perhaps a few miles further south on 09z SREF, but basically same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 09z SREF 24 hr tot precip has 0.5 QPF line right over top of DCA at 72 Using old data til 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 09z SREF 24 hr tot precip has 0.5 QPF line right over top of DCA at 72... which basically is a hold when you compare it to the 03z SREF 24 hr tot precip at 78. Perhaps a few miles further south on 09z SREF, but basically same Please let us know exactly how many miles farther south on the 72 hour SREF using older data. Is it 5 miles Yoda? 10? 3 blocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Please let us know exactly how many miles farther south on the 72 hour SREF using older data. Is it 5 miles Yoda? 10? 3 blocks? Let me go measure. I will have the street that 03z had it on and compare it to the 09z SREF street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Please let us know exactly how many miles farther south on the 72 hour SREF using older data. Is it 5 miles Yoda? 10? 3 blocks? Was gonna say if 12zs are coming north this would happen on 15z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hey, those few miles are pretty important for some of us. I do think the Precip shield will be larger then modeled. That seems to be the norm in these suppressed systems. But it is looking more likely that a chase down to like Harrisonburg should be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 0.5" line moved very little but the nrn edge shrunk considerably to the south. Either way, for the DC proper, it wasn't that noticeable of a change. it also gives rise to the notion of heavier precip just south of the nrn edge of the cutoff. As far as the euro looking funny, it looks like at 500mb, the confluence to the north prevented the s/w trough from amplifying at hr 66 and shoved it east. You can see a weak disturbance moving into New England which actually reinforces the confluence at this time. Part of me believes the whole nrn tick in the final 48 hrs, but there has been an overall subtle trend south. It's a delicate balance between this wanting to come north and the confluence over NNE. A 50 miles shift here or there is huge. Even 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Being ~48 hours out, we're within the time where the Op is superior (in statistics) to the ensemble mean and the members. Perhaps dtk can comment on how true that still is since the GEFS has been updated, but until told otherwise, I'd trust the Op more than the ensembles at this junction. Yeah and within 72 hours, on average, it's not even really close. The ensembles can still have some utility in the 48/72 hour lead time range for particularly volatile situations (where error growth is much larger than normal)....but really only to express possible outcomes and uncertainty (I wouldn't use the ensemble mean for any lead time < 3, maybe 4 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Being ~48 hours out, we're within the time where the Op is superior (in statistics) to the ensemble mean and the members. Perhaps dtk can comment on how true that still is since the GEFS has been updated, but until told otherwise, I'd trust the Op more than the ensembles at this junction. This close in I am basically just looking for a red flag with a bunch of members diverging rapidly from the op. Don't think I have ever seen the statistics on that though. You wouldn't have a link handy by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Using old data til 15z What are you talking about? First of all, it's an ensemble (with perturbed ICs). Secondly, the IC for 9z SREF comes from the 6z cycle of the NAM....and by the way, we do have observations at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What are you talking about? First of all, it's an ensemble (with perturbed ICs). Secondly, the IC for 9z SREF comes from the 6z cycle of the NAM....and by the way, we do have observations at 6z. I know, but im saying if the 12z nam wants to come north, a new complete set of upper air data and observations is there that would maybe also trend rhe 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 at 12Z 33hrs, the nrn stream is further east than 6Z and a bit more ridging ahead of ythe srn trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I know, but im saying if the 12z nam wants to come north, a new complete set of upper air data and observations is there that would maybe also trend rhe 15z SREF That wasn't your original post. Also, considering the fact that the SREF system is a multi-model ensemble (non of the members are the operational NAM-NMMB model), I wouldn't expect the operational NAM to "trend" toward the SREF necessarily (it can happen, to be sure). It's a completely different animal than the GEFS/GFS or ECMWF and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm reminds me alot of Jan. 30, 2010. Maybe the setup isn't the same, it certainly is nowhere near as cold, but in that storm it was the low heights in the NE that was squashing the precip from coming north. I remember at that time, mets saying that that feature was often overmodeled. Going on memory here, so might be fuzzy. Anyway, in that storm, we didn't start seeing the north movement of the precip until within 24 hours of the event. And that movement was huge when it happened. Not saying the same thing happens here, but I can tell you that I'll be watching all the way through tomorrows runs before I jump for joy or off the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That wasn't your original post. Also, considering the fact that the SREF system is a multi-model ensemble (non of the members are the operational NAM-NMMB model), I wouldn't expect the operational NAM to "trend" toward the SREF necessarily (it can happen, to be sure). It's a completely different animal than the GEFS/GFS or ECMWF and its ensembles. I know dtk, i mean like many have stated it can be a trend starter, but im not sure that makes sense either now that i think about it because the data is old and 09z srefs shouldnt indicate 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Noticed thru 36, the 12z nam looks pretty good so far at h5, not sure sfc shows it, but i like the ul looks so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM looks juicier at 42. Maybe a little slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looking at 48HR, it seems hard to believe this could miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM looks juicier at 42. Maybe a little slower? does look to come further than than 6Z, but that's assuming the confluence doesn't cut it off at the pass like was on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow. Please keep coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow. Please keep coming north Wish granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wish granted. I'll take that. I'm not going to be greedy. If I could lock it in now, I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks good at 54. Nice and wet. Harrisonburg is going to get mauled. Precip shield 50 miles north or so of 6Z. I feel a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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