JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z NAM would be a good hit for most of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Oh boy, nam is confirming a near perfect scenario for us. Low in LA a bit stronger and hp to the N a bit stronger. Precip clearly further N than 6z. It looks really good folks. Nam @ 72 aside, it's looking just like all the other favorable recent guidance. Strongly agree. Much better than 06z in regards to the QPF placement field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ok, onto the real models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 h7 would suggest we see more snow/precip after 84 hrs... sim radar would argue in favor of that as well. All in all, a good 12z NAM run even if its in the outer ranges. And since Wes likes to mention it the 850 low is passing through SE VA at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Strongly agree. Much better than 06z in regards to the QPF placement field Absolutely. No sense getting caught up in the fine details past 48. If I extrapolate to tomorrow's 12z run were looking really good. lol. Jokes aside, it's time to get cautiously excited. Consensus is there. It's not a miller B. Wide swings likely done with. We're gonna have to deal with the painful bullseye movement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ok, onto the real models.. NAM is in a great place now because it gives it room to inch up a bit. Valley low tuesday? Mountain high this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 h7 would suggest we see more snow/precip after 84 hrs... sim radar would argue in favor of that as well. All in all, a good 12z NAM run even if its in the outer ranges. And since Wes likes to mention it the 850 low is passing through SE VA at 84 850 track is very similar to the other models, and it is basically an all snow event for the airports. Pretty good run. Would like it to be at 24 hrs rather than 72 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Absolutely. No sense getting caught up in the fine details past 48. If I extrapolate to tomorrow's 12z run were looking really good. lol. Jokes aside, it's time to get cautiously excited. Consensus is there. It's not a miller B. Wide swings likely done with. We're gonna have to deal with the painful bullseye movement now. if there is such a thing, this is where we want the NAM to be at the end of its range it's got the major features right, it has us in the precip (albeit maybe not the heaviest portion), and we have wiggle room for it to make that inevitable north drift/shift other than that, I normally don't pay attention to the NAM past 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not that it matters much but the NAM will likely be OTS..lagging that 50/50 behind and too much confluence because of it Looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if there is such a thing, this is where we want the NAM to be at the end of its range it's got the major features right, it has us in the precip (albeit maybe not the heaviest portion), and we have wiggle room for it to make that inevitable north drift/shift other than that, I normally don't pay attention to the NAM past 48 hrs I think the nam is worth looking now to compare to the globals. This is a pretty major storm and the solution is becoming locked in a bit. Everything is pointing to the ns being out in front now. That can't really go away anymore. No more scare the crap out of us inland 850 pass anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM isn't bad for us-- 4 inches with a little more to come. (460 in SW VA) Ashamed this air mass isn't a smidge colder, i'd get a foot from this, Wondering if that double barrel low isn't from the multiple vorticies and as we get closer it becomes one slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM isn't bad for us-- 4 inches with a little more to come. (460 in SW VA) Ashamed this air mass isn't a smidge colder, i'd get a foot from this, Wondering if that double barrel low isn't from the multiple vorticies and as we get closer it becomes one slp. I don't think it's a double barrel system. HM expanded nicely on this last night. This is a pretty classic miller A evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 850 track is very similar to the other models, and it is basically an all snow event for the airports. Pretty good run. Would like it to be at 24 hrs rather than 72 though. It is a pretty good run, looks very similar to the 06Z gfs to me though the latter would start as rain. Would be a sloppy snow but would be our biggest snow this year if either verified. The models do seem to be converging towards a solution though I wouldn't be surprised by a hiccup or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't think it's a double barrel system. HM expanded nicely on this last night. This is a pretty classic miller A evolution. yeah, and if it isn't, then it's coming further north, or at least, heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It is a pretty good run, looks very similar to the 06Z gfs to me though the latter would start as rain. Would be a sloppy snow but would be our biggest snow this year if either verified. The models do seem to be converging towards a solution though I wouldn't be surprised by a hiccup or two. Wes, I'm still in learn and understand mode so I struggle sometimes with the hiccups so to speak. Correct me if I'm wrong. IF we do get a hiccup it would likely be a more supressed and ots solution no? I think major details of the speed and timing of the ns and ss vorts has been worked out. I doubt the ns will all of a sudden slow down and bring the whole thing inland as a rainer. IMO- our biggest threat is missing to the south with the heavier precip. I can live with that much more than 38 degree heavy rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 When you say it's good for "us" I'm sure you mean Nova/DC/Baltimore, but areas to the south near 95 have mainly rain from this. Not that it matters b/c at the end of the reliable range it looks nearly identical to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 When you say it's good for "us" I'm sure you mean Nova/DC/Baltimore, but areas to the south near 95 have mainly rain from this. Not that it matters b/c at the end of the reliable range it looks nearly identical to 0z. Obviously the majority of the board population is near the metros. Not everyone lives in the same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z NAM snow clown maps indicate very little snow in the Baltimore area; this is surely due to the lighter precip rates if it comes further north as the global models depict, that will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z NAM snow clown maps indicate very little snow in the Baltimore area; this is surely due to the lighter precip rates if it comes further north as the global models depict, that will change It's an interesting evolution down here- we start as rain, flip to a west snow. as we dry out at 500 MB, a warm nose punches in at 700mb for a couple hours so it's going to be sleet and freezing drizzle. Comma head fires up and we cool everything nicely and it's a 3-5 hour punch of heavy snow. (continues past 84 on the NAM) Has low level warning potential. (for me) EDIT TO say comma head does moisten 500 mb up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z NAM snow clown maps indicate very little snow in the Baltimore area; this is surely due to the lighter precip rates ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z NAM BUFKIT for BWI (I bolded the column for QPF) 120219/1800Z 78 05009KT 38.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 21| 0| 79 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120219/1900Z 79 02008KT 34.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 57| 0| 43 120219/2000Z 80 02009KT 33.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 67| 0| 33 120219/2100Z 81 02011KT 33.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 65| 0| 35 120219/2200Z 82 02012KT 34.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 61| 0| 39 120219/2300Z 83 02011KT 33.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 66| 0| 34 120220/0000Z 84 02011KT 34.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 60| 0| 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ????? different calculation/ratios, etc. I guess http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't think it's a double barrel system. HM expanded nicely on this last night. This is a pretty classic miller A evolution. As depicted on the NAM, maybe I'm using the wrong term with double barrell low. IN my region, we have rain to snow, dries out aloft for 3-5 hours and then get the comma head. That'd be a unique miller A for my area. I understand when the low hits the wedge and the transfer-- and it's a little elongated in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 this must be off the same graph Scuddz posted http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the one thing that is troubling me about this storm is the trough out west where we typically want a ridge for an east coast storm...are there exceptions you guys can think of off the top of your head where we had a significant snow storm with a trough out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the one thing that is troubling me about this storm is the trough out west where we typically want a ridge for an east coast storm...are there exceptions you guys can think of off the top of your head where we had a significant snow storm with a trough out west? We can get snow in this setup. I'm not the stats person but it's not a feat I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A quick look at this morning's SREF and NAM suggest that thickness is good with the 540 line well situated but precip starts after sunrise Sunday and there is a ton of surface warmage. Two meter freezing scoots to Pennsylvania coal country. I'm thinking that we get flurries to rain to snow at sunset if CAA wraps in as the storm scoots east. In short, a lot of scooting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the one thing that is troubling me about this storm is the trough out west where we typically want a ridge for an east coast storm...are there exceptions you guys can think of off the top of your head where we had a significant snow storm with a trough out west? As a general rule of thumb that is true but it applies to a more amplified pattern and that is absent in this setup. The flow has been modeled consistent flat since this storm was sniffed out. What's more important is the ridging in the mw behind the 2 pieces of energy. I might be using this term incorrectly but the wavelengths are short with this setup. We are greatly benefitting from the timing of the 2 features in the split flow and the trough out west is relatively shallow and not much consequence to what we're all praying for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I still think there will be a gradual shift north and west even if small...this doesn't mean a bad result necessarily for anyone, but you still have to favor JYO - MRB - HGR - Marcus's House for the best snows....Plus there is still a lot of time I still like my 2-4" call for my backyard....We are going to have to deal with some rain and some non-accumulating stuff but once it gets cranking, 33 and +SN should overcome that....I expect we will even get street accumulation at least on side roads in DC and maybe main roads depending on timing...I like 3" for my backyard...If we end up with a closer track, I still think we can do ok with deform...we just deal with more rain as a percentage than we want There is still a lot of time for the track to shift but I think an OTS miss is pretty unlikely and I would lean toward PHL-NYC-BOS getting in on this...The southern stream is amped enough on its own.... A couple additional things to consider: This could change but as of now the heaviest snow falls during day time...this will cut down on accumulation since the BL will cool less quickly, and sun angle will be an enemy This air mass is really tough...As of now MOS has us in the low to mid 50s on Saturday afternoon and low to mid 40s when precip arrives Saturday night...As a point of reference on January 25, 2011 we were about 5-7 degrees colder at midnight and same with 2/22/87....We would like to see temps trend toward the mid to upper 40s Saturday afternoon..and upper 30s by midnight....that will give us more of a head start...I expect they will trend down a little This is going to be more like a March storm than a February one...Even Feb 87 had a slightly better air mass....So imagine this storm happening around March 15-20th with somewhat better sun angle and I think you get a better idea of the result...It probably means DCA is capped in the 2-4" range, but accumulations could potentially vary quite a bit over short distances....Stay fleixible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nothing scarey on the gfs. @ 48 on h5 vort panel it looks really close to 6z. 3 pieces of energy lined up nicely with the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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