TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That wasn't your original post. Also, considering the fact that the SREF system is a multi-model ensemble (non of the members are the operational NAM-NMMB model), I wouldn't expect the operational NAM to "trend" toward the SREF necessarily (it can happen, to be sure). It's a completely different animal than the GEFS/GFS or ECMWF and its ensembles. I know dtk, i mean like many have stated it can be a trend starter, but im not sure that makes sense either now that i think about it because the data is old and 09z srefs shouldnt indicate 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM looks juicier at 42. Maybe a little slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Noticed thru 36, the 12z nam looks pretty good so far at h5, not sure sfc shows it, but i like the ul looks so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looking at 48HR, it seems hard to believe this could miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM looks juicier at 42. Maybe a little slower? does look to come further than than 6Z, but that's assuming the confluence doesn't cut it off at the pass like was on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow. Please keep coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow. Please keep coming north Wish granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wish granted. I'll take that. I'm not going to be greedy. If I could lock it in now, I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks good at 54. Nice and wet. Harrisonburg is going to get mauled. Precip shield 50 miles north or so of 6Z. I feel a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0c 2m line at 54 is I-95... everbody west of there below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Very nice at 57.. large strip of 0.5 QPF across VA... just south of DCA. DCA/IAD below freezing and BWI at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Difference between the 12z NAM and the 00z Euro. Both jump and reform the surface low, but the Euro scoots it off of Wilmington, whereas the NAM goes off the Outer Banks and still gains a little bit of latitude. edit - retracted, bad memory. Surface lows not far off from each other, though trajectory after the outer banks is slightly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The whole area getting blasted at 60HR. This is back to being a big snow event like 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0c 2m line at 54 is I-95... everbody west of there below 32 While the northern stream has made the track worrisome, it has also pretty well guaranteed an all-snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The southern ULL isn't as amplified, but I think the nrn stream confluence was just a bit more north which results in not much change or maybe a tick north on the NAM. Anyways, it's the NAM and we'll see what the rest of the guidance does at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Gorgeous at 60. Very nice hit for basically all of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The whole area getting blasted at 60HR. This is back to being a big snow event like 00Z. The Force is strong with this one... 0.5 QPF across NOVA/DC/S MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Pretty cold at 54hrs. Freezing line basically wrapping around the heavy precip in the deform band. WV and eastern KY are loving this run. And so are we...this is an all snow run for the entire LWX area, IMO. Lots of good UVVs at 700mb as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 We just need the Euro to come around and I'd feel a lot better about this. But as it stands, NAM just pummels us...is it too cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The whole area getting blasted at 60HR. This is back to being a big snow event like 00Z. This won't be like 00z, but a nice event on this run. 00z was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thinking the low wont jump east as far and where the slp is, id think itll be even more north at 18z pr 0z, we'll see. Regardless, a confidence booster for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This one is such a difficult forecast up this way. I hate being on the edge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DCA around 0.7 QPF at 60... more to come still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nice QPF gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This one is such a difficult forecast up this way. I hate being on the edge! Well al, id bet on this coming nort more like matt and even Ian have been saying, its going to come north, i think the 50 miles north on precip proves that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC really gets clobbered. Everyone does OK, really. Step back from the ledge, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 just keep drifting north baby, baby steps, but just keep coming and I'll tell you when to stop anyway, what I do like seeing is how the NAM moves the nrn stream out of the way; it's a NINA, and the flow across the north has been fast all season so it "seems" reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Another weenie banding signal for the city on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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