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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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agree - it just got crushed at 66-72... 500 mb looked amped at 54 and 60 hours - nam-ish

Yes, the confluence modeled on this run is stronger than nam/gfs with the northern stream just a bit too slow for our liking. Was really good for a while there, better than 12z though and leaves us on the edge of something really good maybe at 12z if the h5 features are more like the american models.

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I know earlier the issue of this potential MCS cutting off the moisture advection toward the cyclone was brought up. Now, you cannot accurately judge that based on these charts we have but it sure seems like something's up with the ECMWF.

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Ugh, should have skept. I haven't look at maps but is assume 850 lp took a similar track?

If so we're still just dealing with precip shield variations and not lp track. Can't freak out on that at all nor discount nam/gfs combo.

there is a negative tilt and then out of nowhere it just gets stomped on...I dont have good upper level maps but the storm gets owned so badly...I have no idea if it is realistic or not..still plenty of ways to get this north....onto tomorrow

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Yea, absolutely no reason to hit the panic button (or easy button). Haven't looked at maps but I can understand what's goin on here. Should have hit the sack an hour ago but what can you do?

This entire thing still screams moderate event in our parts. No sense in thinking otherwise yet.

It does, and for some sections even significant, because the euro wouldve been really nice had the northern influence would've been like the nam and even to some extent the gfs. I don't buy the s/w getting crushed like tht. 12z we rejoice...

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It does, and for some sections even significant, because the euro wouldve been really nice had the northern influence would've been like the nam and even to some extent the gfs. I don't buy the s/w getting crushed like tht. 12z we rejoice...

not that it matters much but my optimism was somewhat predicated on the idea that the southern stream could amplify sufficiently on its own without a phase even with confluence over New England...If we cant get hit by a storm with a negatively tilted trough and a 1000mb surface low over Birmingham then I may just be wrong.....hopefully it works itself out in our favor....I am chasing if it is going to be a miss here....

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not that it matters much but my optimism was somewhat predicated on the idea that the southern stream could amplify sufficiently on its own without a phase even with confluence over New England...If we cant get hit by a storm with a negatively tilted trough and a 1000mb surface low over Birmingham then I may just be wrong.....hopefully it works itself out in our favor....I am chasing if it is going to be a miss here....

To be honest, when i say a 1000 over Birmingham, I get pretty excited, im having trouble finding the euro's reasoning for crushing the storm like that. However, i am with you thinking this will be north, ever since 12z today went south, i thought we'd see some hints tonight,

but the real return north would be 12z, which i strongly believe.

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not that it matters much but my optimism was somewhat predicated on the idea that the southern stream could amplify sufficiently on its own without a phase even with confluence over New England...If we cant get hit by a storm with a negatively tilted trough and a 1000mb surface low over Birmingham then I may just be wrong.....hopefully it works itself out in our favor....I am chasing if it is going to be a miss here....

Just got home from work..going back in 6 hours and I'm hanging around for the 6z NAM :axe:

I can't say that the Euro doesn't worry me..it does...BUT with out short range models and a few others against it....I dunno..I remain optimistic.

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Just got home from work..going back in 6 hours and I'm hanging around for the 6z NAM :axe:

I can't say that the Euro doesn't worry me..it does...BUT with out short range models and a few others against it....I dunno..I remain optimistic.

Same randy...ps srefs came a good bit north, a good start to our day especially since this the 03z gets new 00z data, good sign for the nam.

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