Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like what I see so far....I dont like to extrapolate...but...yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 zwyts - agree, i like 500... a lot... so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like what I see so far....I dont like to extrapolate...but...yeah I thought you had died....too much silence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 meh wasn't expecting that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 meh at 60 hrs it looked like a massive hit and then it gets shoved wide right by the northern stream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 wasn't expecting that at all We barely get any precip Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 agree - it just got crushed at 66-72... 500 mb looked amped at 54 and 60 hours - nam-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Precip gets up to PHL which I think is important, but it is south....~0.20" for DC metro...0.5" contour 75-100 mi south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 at 60 hrs it looked like a massive hit and then it gets shoved wide right by the northern stream.... Do you think it will happen like that Matt? Looks suspect like it really could be a massive hit if the chips fall the slightest bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We barely get any precip Mitch. still have 2 and 1/2 days every storm that has fallen apart this year has done it < 60 hrs out, so it can still change (and it ain't perfect either, just better than the rest, but not perfect) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 agree - it just got crushed at 66-72... 500 mb looked amped at 54 and 60 hours - nam-ish Yes, the confluence modeled on this run is stronger than nam/gfs with the northern stream just a bit too slow for our liking. Was really good for a while there, better than 12z though and leaves us on the edge of something really good maybe at 12z if the h5 features are more like the american models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the crucial time is between 60 and 66 hours...it basically gets crushed and goes horizontal during a timeframe when we need it to gain latitude....strange run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 talk about the odd couple, Euro and Canadian....I mean, wtf when has that happened and been right? I can't remember it's possible, but with GFS, Ukie, NAM, and JMA hits of varying degrees, I'm not throwing the towel in by any stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I know earlier the issue of this potential MCS cutting off the moisture advection toward the cyclone was brought up. Now, you cannot accurately judge that based on these charts we have but it sure seems like something's up with the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 996 over hatteras headed ENE QPF TOTALS dc 0.15 ezf 0.25 ric ~0.90 roa ~0.70 LYH 0.70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ugh, should have skept. I haven't look at maps but is assume 850 lp took a similar track? If so we're still just dealing with precip shield variations and not lp track. Can't freak out on that at all nor discount nam/gfs combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the crucial time is between 60 and 66 hours...it basically gets crushed and goes horizontal during a timeframe when we need it to gain latitude....strange run... i sure was expecting it to gain latitude given the amplitude of the southern stream wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ugh, should have skept. I haven't look at maps but is assume 850 lp took a similar track? If so we're still just dealing with precip shield variations and not lp track. Can't freak out on that at all nor discount nam/gfs combo. there is a negative tilt and then out of nowhere it just gets stomped on...I dont have good upper level maps but the storm gets owned so badly...I have no idea if it is realistic or not..still plenty of ways to get this north....onto tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 such a disappointing run...hopefully in 12 hours we have better news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yea, absolutely no reason to hit the panic button (or easy button). Haven't looked at maps but I can understand what's goin on here. Should have hit the sack an hour ago but what can you do? This entire thing still screams moderate event in our parts. No sense in thinking otherwise yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This reminds me of dec 2009 storm. All models were south for the longest time because the northern stream crushed the vort. This seems similar if the confluence lifts a bit north we got a big storm. Will wait and see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yea, absolutely no reason to hit the panic button (or easy button). Haven't looked at maps but I can understand what's goin on here. Should have hit the sack an hour ago but what can you do? This entire thing still screams moderate event in our parts. No sense in thinking otherwise yet. It does, and for some sections even significant, because the euro wouldve been really nice had the northern influence would've been like the nam and even to some extent the gfs. I don't buy the s/w getting crushed like tht. 12z we rejoice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd be pretty worried in Philly, but the EURO may very well have overtrened considering this system's GOM origin.....these usually bump n at the last moment. DC and Balt. may do ok, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It does, and for some sections even significant, because the euro wouldve been really nice had the northern influence would've been like the nam and even to some extent the gfs. I don't buy the s/w getting crushed like tht. 12z we rejoice... not that it matters much but my optimism was somewhat predicated on the idea that the southern stream could amplify sufficiently on its own without a phase even with confluence over New England...If we cant get hit by a storm with a negatively tilted trough and a 1000mb surface low over Birmingham then I may just be wrong.....hopefully it works itself out in our favor....I am chasing if it is going to be a miss here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 not that it matters much but my optimism was somewhat predicated on the idea that the southern stream could amplify sufficiently on its own without a phase even with confluence over New England...If we cant get hit by a storm with a negatively tilted trough and a 1000mb surface low over Birmingham then I may just be wrong.....hopefully it works itself out in our favor....I am chasing if it is going to be a miss here.... To be honest, when i say a 1000 over Birmingham, I get pretty excited, im having trouble finding the euro's reasoning for crushing the storm like that. However, i am with you thinking this will be north, ever since 12z today went south, i thought we'd see some hints tonight, but the real return north would be 12z, which i strongly believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 not that it matters much but my optimism was somewhat predicated on the idea that the southern stream could amplify sufficiently on its own without a phase even with confluence over New England...If we cant get hit by a storm with a negatively tilted trough and a 1000mb surface low over Birmingham then I may just be wrong.....hopefully it works itself out in our favor....I am chasing if it is going to be a miss here.... Just got home from work..going back in 6 hours and I'm hanging around for the 6z NAM I can't say that the Euro doesn't worry me..it does...BUT with out short range models and a few others against it....I dunno..I remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just got home from work..going back in 6 hours and I'm hanging around for the 6z NAM I can't say that the Euro doesn't worry me..it does...BUT with out short range models and a few others against it....I dunno..I remain optimistic. Same randy...ps srefs came a good bit north, a good start to our day especially since this the 03z gets new 00z data, good sign for the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yup, SREFS looks good and came north a bit. Solidly .50 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The euro has and always will hate us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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