usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nice run...~0.6" for DCA?.....on to euro I like the run and think its funny look surface look at 60 hours with a second low right near the convection may be due to the convection scheme not doing its job quite right. That happened last year with one or two of the storms and remember discussing it with Steve Tracton. Still it's an all snow event on both the GFS and NAm with neither having trivial amounts. I shoul dhave said I expect a second low but think it might be a little north of where the GFS has it but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Could someone post the ukmet or describe it? It will be well appreciated i am mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Who's bright idea was it to do this bs for a living? (oh right me...lol). Unfortunately, this northern edge will be even tighter than usual if you are talking strictly snow accumulation. The northern edge will "warm" as well and that will mean not too much accumulation. But as you head south, all of a sudden it is a steady, moderate wet snowstorm. This will have quite the "snow gradient" in that regard (where as in usual miller A storms mid-winter with ample cold air in place, there would at least be a region of dustings to an inch and so on and so forth). wild guess is good snows make it to PHL metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 hmm, just dawned on me snow in October this year March 1, 1980 type storm, but certainly not that magnitude 79/80, IAD and DCA did substantially better than BWI, percentage-wise of annual snowfall that is just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The UKIE is out already? Remember this is a 6 hour total....and the prior 6 may be robust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like the run and think its funny look surface look at 60 hours with a second low right near the convection may be due to the convection scheme not doing its job quite right. That happened last year with one or two of the storms and remember discussing it with Steve Tracton. Still it's an all snow event on both the GFS and NAm with neither having trivial amounts. In this case it looks normal to me. In fact most of that in the surface is frontal convergence/kinking as opposed to sub-grid scale QPF induced "fake" surface lows. I think in this case what the GFS is trying to simulate is relatively realistic in terms of convective development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like the run and think its funny look surface look at 60 hours with a second low right near the convection may be due to the convection scheme not doing its job quite right. That happened last year with one or two of the storms and remember discussing it with Steve Tracton. Still it's an all snow event on both the GFS and NAm with neither having trivial amounts. I shoul dhave said I expect a second low but think it might be a little north of where the GFS has it but I guess we'll see. I know people are gong to be concerned that we are "fringed" but I think where we are at is fine right now...hopefully the euro is similar to the GFS or at least a bit north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Liking the trend of the UKMET, as well as the NAM and even the GFS as I don't see the wave getting flattened in that fashion, but rather coming further NW with the confluence. RGEM also looks impressive at 48 so that is hopefully a sign of what the Canadian is about to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 wild guess is good snows make it to PHL metro They are definitely in the game but I am not digging the placement of the deformation zones / confluence. But of course, that's assuming the solutions now are correct. Let's see how the ECMWF goes but I am loving the model convergence tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What kind of ratios are we looking at here? Gonna be heavy, right? So like 8:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I know people are gong to be concerned that we are "fringed" but I think where we are at is fine right now...hopefully the euro is similar to the GFS or at least a bit north of 12z yeah, i really like your spot here, especially since there is usually at least a small move north as the storm gets near. im down in DC a lot, wish this was one of the weekends I was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Good luck down there guys! Trends look good for a good DC proper snowstorm. GFS/NAM/UKIE all solid hits now. Awaiting the EURO and then it's GAME ON! Take pics so us up north can live vicariously through you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Remember this is a 6 hour total....and the prior 6 may be robust... jerry what parameter do you input for that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 jerry what parameter do you input for that map Quant. Precip .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 jerry what parameter do you input for that map MSL Pressure/precip in the composite variables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GGEM gets precip back into DC this run and maybe even a little into Baltimore, still far south but I like where the RGEM stands. Nonetheless, GGEM north of its 12z run, so thats always a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 can't hot link this one-Ukie precip map Jerry posted, but BIG http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the GEM is kind of weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the GEM is kind of weak. Let's wait for the Euro the GGEM is kind of meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I hope the Low tracks a tad further N so that DC- PHL get a good snow. System is S. stream, so lots of qpf to work with. Check 00Z ECM as well. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GEFS 48 has 1004 L basically right over NO 60 has 1001 L C AL/C GA line 72 has 997 L east of HSE by about 150 miles (rough guess) For those that care, QPF at IAD/DCA 0.25... BWI prob 0.15... EZF 0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GEFS 48 has 1004 L basically right over NO 60 has 1001 L C AL/C GA line 72 has 997 L east of HSE by about 150 miles (rough guess) It's a little bit south and east of the 12z GEFS. It overall also looks flatter than the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What time does the EURO come out? I don't usually make it this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What time does the EURO come out? I don't usually make it this late. 30 mins or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Æ think they were kidding on the ratios. Also, I thot the key euro frames wouldn't be out til past 1am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 euro runs quick....once it initializes we should be in range in 20 minutes....1:05 or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 euro out to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yikes to the 0Z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Is that a good or bad yikes mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Good. d@mn good, and there ;looks to have some more qpf to fall after that map based on upper level maps, but heaviest in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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