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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


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nice run...~0.6" for DCA?.....on to euro

I like the run and think its funny look surface look at 60 hours with a second low right near the convection may be due to the convection scheme not doing its job quite right. That happened last year with one or two of the storms and remember discussing it with Steve Tracton. Still it's an all snow event on both the GFS and NAm with neither having trivial amounts. I shoul dhave said I expect a second low but think it might be a little north of where the GFS has it but I guess we'll see.

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Who's bright idea was it to do this bs for a living? (oh right me...lol).

Unfortunately, this northern edge will be even tighter than usual if you are talking strictly snow accumulation. The northern edge will "warm" as well and that will mean not too much accumulation. But as you head south, all of a sudden it is a steady, moderate wet snowstorm. This will have quite the "snow gradient" in that regard (where as in usual miller A storms mid-winter with ample cold air in place, there would at least be a region of dustings to an inch and so on and so forth).

wild guess is good snows make it to PHL metro

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I like the run and think its funny look surface look at 60 hours with a second low right near the convection may be due to the convection scheme not doing its job quite right. That happened last year with one or two of the storms and remember discussing it with Steve Tracton. Still it's an all snow event on both the GFS and NAm with neither having trivial amounts.

In this case it looks normal to me. In fact most of that in the surface is frontal convergence/kinking as opposed to sub-grid scale QPF induced "fake" surface lows. I think in this case what the GFS is trying to simulate is relatively realistic in terms of convective development.

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I like the run and think its funny look surface look at 60 hours with a second low right near the convection may be due to the convection scheme not doing its job quite right. That happened last year with one or two of the storms and remember discussing it with Steve Tracton. Still it's an all snow event on both the GFS and NAm with neither having trivial amounts. I shoul dhave said I expect a second low but think it might be a little north of where the GFS has it but I guess we'll see.

I know people are gong to be concerned that we are "fringed" but I think where we are at is fine right now...hopefully the euro is similar to the GFS or at least a bit north of 12z

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wild guess is good snows make it to PHL metro

They are definitely in the game but I am not digging the placement of the deformation zones / confluence. But of course, that's assuming the solutions now are correct. Let's see how the ECMWF goes but I am loving the model convergence tonight.

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I know people are gong to be concerned that we are "fringed" but I think where we are at is fine right now...hopefully the euro is similar to the GFS or at least a bit north of 12z

yeah, i really like your spot here, especially since there is usually at least a small move north as the storm gets near. im down in DC a lot, wish this was one of the weekends I was there.

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