mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 talk about the odd couple, Euro and Canadian....I mean, wtf when has that happened and been right? I can't remember it's possible, but with GFS, Ukie, NAM, and JMA hits of varying degrees, I'm not throwing the towel in by any stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I know earlier the issue of this potential MCS cutting off the moisture advection toward the cyclone was brought up. Now, you cannot accurately judge that based on these charts we have but it sure seems like something's up with the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 996 over hatteras headed ENE QPF TOTALS dc 0.15 ezf 0.25 ric ~0.90 roa ~0.70 LYH 0.70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ugh, should have skept. I haven't look at maps but is assume 850 lp took a similar track? If so we're still just dealing with precip shield variations and not lp track. Can't freak out on that at all nor discount nam/gfs combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the crucial time is between 60 and 66 hours...it basically gets crushed and goes horizontal during a timeframe when we need it to gain latitude....strange run... i sure was expecting it to gain latitude given the amplitude of the southern stream wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yea, absolutely no reason to hit the panic button (or easy button). Haven't looked at maps but I can understand what's goin on here. Should have hit the sack an hour ago but what can you do? This entire thing still screams moderate event in our parts. No sense in thinking otherwise yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This reminds me of dec 2009 storm. All models were south for the longest time because the northern stream crushed the vort. This seems similar if the confluence lifts a bit north we got a big storm. Will wait and see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yea, absolutely no reason to hit the panic button (or easy button). Haven't looked at maps but I can understand what's goin on here. Should have hit the sack an hour ago but what can you do? This entire thing still screams moderate event in our parts. No sense in thinking otherwise yet. It does, and for some sections even significant, because the euro wouldve been really nice had the northern influence would've been like the nam and even to some extent the gfs. I don't buy the s/w getting crushed like tht. 12z we rejoice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd be pretty worried in Philly, but the EURO may very well have overtrened considering this system's GOM origin.....these usually bump n at the last moment. DC and Balt. may do ok, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 not that it matters much but my optimism was somewhat predicated on the idea that the southern stream could amplify sufficiently on its own without a phase even with confluence over New England...If we cant get hit by a storm with a negatively tilted trough and a 1000mb surface low over Birmingham then I may just be wrong.....hopefully it works itself out in our favor....I am chasing if it is going to be a miss here.... To be honest, when i say a 1000 over Birmingham, I get pretty excited, im having trouble finding the euro's reasoning for crushing the storm like that. However, i am with you thinking this will be north, ever since 12z today went south, i thought we'd see some hints tonight, but the real return north would be 12z, which i strongly believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 not that it matters much but my optimism was somewhat predicated on the idea that the southern stream could amplify sufficiently on its own without a phase even with confluence over New England...If we cant get hit by a storm with a negatively tilted trough and a 1000mb surface low over Birmingham then I may just be wrong.....hopefully it works itself out in our favor....I am chasing if it is going to be a miss here.... Just got home from work..going back in 6 hours and I'm hanging around for the 6z NAM I can't say that the Euro doesn't worry me..it does...BUT with out short range models and a few others against it....I dunno..I remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just got home from work..going back in 6 hours and I'm hanging around for the 6z NAM I can't say that the Euro doesn't worry me..it does...BUT with out short range models and a few others against it....I dunno..I remain optimistic. Same randy...ps srefs came a good bit north, a good start to our day especially since this the 03z gets new 00z data, good sign for the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yup, SREFS looks good and came north a bit. Solidly .50 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The euro has and always will hate us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The euro has and always will hate us Check this out: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF MOVE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THIS SYSTEM...BUT ITS NEWER RUN ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO DECAY/SHEAR UNDER THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS AN IMPROVEMENT OVER ITS PRIOR RUN. THIS LEAVES THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS CONTENDERS. LOOKING AT THE 700 HPA LEVEL...THE 00Z NAM IS THE DEEPEST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM /ONE OF ITS BIASES WITH POTENTIAL SNOW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER 48/...EVEN AS IT SHOWS A POSITIVE TILT/MORE OPEN LOOK ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM IS COMPOSED OF A PAIR OF STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE MID-LEVELS...WHICH MEANS EVEN IF NOTHING ELSE IS CONSIDERED A MORE OPEN LOOK AT 500 HPA/700 HPA LEVELS WOULD BE ADVISABLE ACROSS THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO MERGE OVER THE LOWER 48. THIS ARGUES AGAINST THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET SOLUTIONS. WILL THEREFORE PREFER THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION HERE WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE DETAIL ISSUES OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE USUAL ISSUES WITH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nam still pretty good. Maybe 30 miles south with heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nam still pretty good. Maybe 30 miles south with heaviest precip Yeah, i feel like 12z has the ingredients to come north like many expect, as ive seen a quicker northern stream and confluence being modeled less significant. Bet JYO ends up near the bullseye by 12z or 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nam is very solid hit and very cold and good precip at night. Encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro ensembles look similar to the op at the surface, but I could not tell you about precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Gfs solid with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Gfs would be a 4-5 inch snowstorm ...still hoping for a northern trend today of about 50-100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Gfs would be a 4-5 inch snowstorm ...still hoping for a northern trend today of about 50-100 miles One of the things that worries me a little in terms of the bust potental is that the GFS has been very consistent with setting up a heavy band across WV but then during subsequent panels, the band seems to dissapate as the storm passes by the our south... the 00z euro does something very similar to this yet the band of snow initial sets up further south and west in to TN and then almost disappear as the storm exits the coast (hours 69-78 via wundermap- this is all a have access to). I would be curious to understand what the models are picking up on to cause this? Perhaps the storm is getting sheared out as it uncounters the westerly flow? Perhaps a met could comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nam is very solid hit and very cold and good precip at night. Encouraging Decent shift south with the precip though....we need that to stop and the 12z runs to show it coming back North...glad to still have some snow on a few models though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 One of the things that worries me a little in terms of the bust potental is that the GFS has been very consistent with setting up a heavy band across WV but then during subsequent panels, the band seems to dissapate as the storm passes by the our south... the 00z euro does something very similar to this yet the band of snow initial sets up further south and west in to TN and then almost disappear as the storm exits the coast (hours 69-78 via wundermap- this is all a have access to). I would be curious to understand what the models are picking up on to cause this? Perhaps the storm is getting sheared out as it uncounters the westerly flow? Perhaps a met could comment. Not a Met and will probably explain this poorly but the the problem looks to be the confluence. If you look at the 500mb charts you will see that the lines in the chart are converging to the north and east which means that air is piling up through that region. In the upper atmosphere when that occurs the air has only one direction to go and that is down which is not conducive to create precip. What you would like to see is diffluence where the lines are separating at 500mb which creates rising air flow from the lower levels which creates condensation and precip. Again not a Met so maybe one can explain it better or correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Weenie suicide alert if the precip slides east on the 12Z models. We got a storm and the most suppressed models are outliers. Cross your fingers and cross your toes for that northward trend for the 0Z models this eve. Wear your PJs inside out. Buy TP if you are using. Im at work using their trashy computers,just waiting for the 12z nam.If it comes in south i'll probably be the 1st weenie suicide.No wait,i'll defenitly be the 1st.For my area I need a north shift of at least 50 miles,100 would be prefered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not a Met and will probably explain this poorly but the the problem looks to be the confluence. If you look at the 500mb charts you will see that the lines in the chart are converging to the north and east which means that air is piling up through that region. In the upper atmosphere when that occurs the air has only one direction to go and that is down which is not conducive to create precip. What you would like to see is diffluence where the lines are separating at 500mb which creates rising air flow from the lower levels which creates condensation and precip. Again not a Met so maybe one can explain it better or correct me if I am wrong. Awesome explanation... thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Im at work using their trashy computers,just waiting for the 12z nam.If it comes in south i'll probably be the 1st weenie suicide.No wait,i'll defenitly be the 1st.For my area I need a north shift of at least 50 miles,100 would be prefered. Don't know if I would get to excited one way or the other until tonight's 00Z run of the NAM when it gets into it's wheelhouse of 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like the GFS ensemble members are generally a little south of the op with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 just saw the 6z nam and gfs...looks to me like we're on the northern fringe of a signficant event...just need a little jog north to get into our comfort level. at 60 hours out, i'll take it. also, this is obviously not pd2, but i remember even that storm coming north slightly more than advertised even with that huge high. i like (edit: i'm ok with) where we're at...at least for the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I will be shocked if this isn't a solid hit in the area even up to Philly and the southern half of NJ. That's the way these suppressed gulf storms roll typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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