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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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0z GFS is definitely not going to be a NAM run. It has more frontal DMC early which inhibits advection across the WCB early on. It looks flatter aloft too.

Yeah the NAM looked to amplified out west against the rest of the guidance (before 00z runs). The convection is going to be pretty strong with a lot of westerly momentum. I agree with you that the convection is a major concern (what's new).

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But I think it will be wetter than the 18Z run based on it's look at 48 hrs though extrapolating a model is not always productive.

Yeah the NAM looked to amplified out west against the rest of the guidance (before 00z runs). The convection is going to be pretty strong with a lot of westerly momentum. I agree with you that the convection is a major concern (what's new).

Actually looks similar I guess. But yes, even similar, DMC is always a worry with positive tilt systems even if this ends the same as 18Z GFS.

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deep moist convection, i believe...

Correct

Not sure what I'm more interestered in.....snow or tornadoes to the south.

The severe weather may end up being quite the story. What ENSO phase are we in again? ;)

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The DAY 3 SPC outlook was telling! There is going to be some sick convection.

timing and overall minimal landmass it's going to be "hot" in are probably limiting factors but some definite potential in the deep south.

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The text to take into consideration most w.r.t. the convective threat across the deep south as these types of systems can have huge influences on moisture transport vectors as well as diabatic induced low level PV anomalies, via SPC:

"IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE

SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE

EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. "

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The text to take into consideration most w.r.t. the convective threat, via SPC:

"IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE

SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE

EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. "

So, just to be sure, are you saying we do not want that to happen because it would rob the moisture influx?

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So, just to be sure, are you saying we do not want that to happen because it would rob the moisture influx?

"Robbing" moisture is actually not really what is occurring. I am not worried to the point it will mean this storm busts, but it certainly can have major implications on how the system develops. This is still the best DC threat all year by miles.

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i guess the million dollar question is where that edge will be, i dont envy you in having to forecast that.

Who's bright idea was it to do this bs for a living? (oh right me...lol).

Unfortunately, this northern edge will be even tighter than usual if you are talking strictly snow accumulation. The northern edge will "warm" as well and that will mean not too much accumulation. But as you head south, all of a sudden it is a steady, moderate wet snowstorm. This will have quite the "snow gradient" in that regard (where as in usual miller A storms mid-winter with ample cold air in place, there would at least be a region of dustings to an inch and so on and so forth).

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