Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the warm sector's gonna be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 But I think it will be wetter than the 18Z run based on it's look at 48 hrs though extrapolating a model is not always productive. Yeah the NAM looked to amplified out west against the rest of the guidance (before 00z runs). The convection is going to be pretty strong with a lot of westerly momentum. I agree with you that the convection is a major concern (what's new). Actually looks similar I guess. But yes, even similar, DMC is always a worry with positive tilt systems even if this ends the same as 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the warm sector's gonna be rockin The DAY 3 SPC outlook was telling! There is going to be some sick convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Actually looks similar I guess. But yes, even similar, DMC is always a worry with positive tilt systems even if this ends the same as 18Z GFS. What is DMC?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What is DMC?. deep moist convection, i believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not sure what I'm more interestered in.....snow or tornadoes to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nice run of the GFS, but with the lack of the northeastern confluence having an effect on our storm, would it really flatten out like that? I think areas north of us should get in on the fun this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we are close to locking this thing up - through 60 at least the GFS and NAM are pretty close, with the NAM being a bit more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 deep moist convection, i believe... You are correct sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 deep moist convection, i believe... Correct Not sure what I'm more interestered in.....snow or tornadoes to the south. The severe weather may end up being quite the story. What ENSO phase are we in again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hey there bl! 2m freezing running I-95 @ 60 vs close to I-81 on hr66 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The DAY 3 SPC outlook was telling! There is going to be some sick convection. timing and overall minimal landmass it's going to be "hot" in are probably limiting factors but some definite potential in the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I want to see the 00z ECMWF and 3z SREF first but I am thinking a slow crawling northern edge will be the way I hedge in my forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nice run...~0.6" for DCA?.....on to euro meh, there goes the suspense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 meh, there goes the suspense How do you know he is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The text to take into consideration most w.r.t. the convective threat across the deep south as these types of systems can have huge influences on moisture transport vectors as well as diabatic induced low level PV anomalies, via SPC: "IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I want to see the 00z ECMWF and 3z SREF first but I am thinking a slow crawling northern edge will be the way I hedge in my forecasts. i guess the million dollar question is where that edge will be, i dont envy you in having to forecast that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is shaping up to be very similar to the good dc snows. UKMET is a solid hit. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nice run...~0.6" for DCA?.....on to euro Yes and mostly snow. Solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The text to take into consideration most w.r.t. the convective threat, via SPC: "IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. " So, just to be sure, are you saying we do not want that to happen because it would rob the moisture influx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i guess the million dollar question is where that edge will be, i dont envy you in having to forecast that. North of where it is now. I am 100% sure of that. PHL will get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Colder for sure. That northern cutoff is a little close for comfort for me. I will take the NAM please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is shaping up to be very similar to the good dc snows. UKMET is a solid hit. Good luck The UKIE is out already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So, just to be sure, are you saying we do not want that to happen because it would rob the moisture influx? "Robbing" moisture is actually not really what is occurring. I am not worried to the point it will mean this storm busts, but it certainly can have major implications on how the system develops. This is still the best DC threat all year by miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i guess the million dollar question is where that edge will be, i dont envy you in having to forecast that. Who's bright idea was it to do this bs for a living? (oh right me...lol). Unfortunately, this northern edge will be even tighter than usual if you are talking strictly snow accumulation. The northern edge will "warm" as well and that will mean not too much accumulation. But as you head south, all of a sudden it is a steady, moderate wet snowstorm. This will have quite the "snow gradient" in that regard (where as in usual miller A storms mid-winter with ample cold air in place, there would at least be a region of dustings to an inch and so on and so forth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nice run...~0.6" for DCA?.....on to euro I like the run and think its funny look surface look at 60 hours with a second low right near the convection may be due to the convection scheme not doing its job quite right. That happened last year with one or two of the storms and remember discussing it with Steve Tracton. Still it's an all snow event on both the GFS and NAm with neither having trivial amounts. I shoul dhave said I expect a second low but think it might be a little north of where the GFS has it but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Could someone post the ukmet or describe it? It will be well appreciated i am mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 hmm, just dawned on me snow in October this year March 1, 1980 type storm, but certainly not that magnitude 79/80, IAD and DCA did substantially better than BWI, percentage-wise of annual snowfall that is just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The UKIE is out already? Remember this is a 6 hour total....and the prior 6 may be robust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like the run and think its funny look surface look at 60 hours with a second low right near the convection may be due to the convection scheme not doing its job quite right. That happened last year with one or two of the storms and remember discussing it with Steve Tracton. Still it's an all snow event on both the GFS and NAm with neither having trivial amounts. In this case it looks normal to me. In fact most of that in the surface is frontal convergence/kinking as opposed to sub-grid scale QPF induced "fake" surface lows. I think in this case what the GFS is trying to simulate is relatively realistic in terms of convective development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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