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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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Wow, I come back several hours after being a little concerned about the 18Z runs and the 12Z Euro...and this? Unbelievable! If we had a choice and could say "this is exactly what will happen", I'd run off with this one into the locker room and call it a good enough game for me.

What's particularly surprising is how much colder the 2-m temperatures are through the event.

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I got a little excited when I compared 12z to 18z gfs 2m temps.....and now the name does this? THIS is an important and signifcant trend. If 0z gfs stays cold then the is becoming quite real. Can't say any of us saw the bl improving like this coming. At least I didn't...

There comes a point before a storm with model watching when you say this is looking quite real. If the GFS shows even half the qpf and temp profile I think we may be at that point.

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There comes a point before a storm with model watching when you say this is looking quite real. If the GFS shows even half the qpf and temp profile I think we may be at that point.

I'll add that if the GFS and Euro show anything remotely like this amount of QPF, along with similar 2-m temperatures, then we've got something quite real.

Sure would be nice to give the new camera a good "field test" on a snow event that's more than an inch this year.

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What about RIC - does the cold air come down enough for snow or does it stay rain b/c of the more northerly track?

00Z NAM verbatim...everything before 12Z Sunday looks like snow. So could see some accumulations overnight before sleet/frzr/rain during the day ending as a bit of snow, maybe an inch or two. Or something like that :)

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I guess the more interesting thing tonight will be what the 3z SREFs look like; although, it is still too early yet for these to have a lot of weight. I agree with Scott that all the NAM should be telling us is the potential for a sick band with the mid-level deform.

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If the NAM happened as depicted, that's a good banding signal for the city and points n&w. I like the position of the 700mb WF and also a deep saturated layer for a time.

The sounding is also pretty interesting for dca.

post-70-0-86507200-1329448117.png

For weenies, look for the convectively unstable layers. I'm not sure they are deep enought to support thunder but they are there.

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You've been done for awhile I think.

Yeah we have been. I had some hope we could maybe get at least grazed, yesterday..but I don't think it's going to happen. I swear 7/10 times this would have probably come north enough to graze us, but the confluence this time around is killing us, even without a strong block.

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