yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dammit why cant this be tomorrow night and why can't this be the gfs. True to our mid atlantic nature we will now worry for the next 36 hours I know... and 2m temps are below freezing too for most of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 verbatim, RIC woud end as 1, maybe 2" of snow just now from DT FB page........................ Wxrisk.com 10-14" in CHO...... according to the NAM 6-9" over RIC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I got a little excited when I compared 12z to 18z gfs 2m temps.....and now the name does this? THIS is an important and signifcant trend. If 0z gfs stays cold then the is becoming quite real. Can't say any of us saw the bl improving like this coming. At least I didn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 this is a gut wrenching hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 just now from DT FB page........................ Wxrisk.com 10-14" in CHO...... according to the NAM 6-9" over RIC metro Probably using 10:1 ratio...not sure we get a straight up ratio like that. Even then can probably slash amounts in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow, I come back several hours after being a little concerned about the 18Z runs and the 12Z Euro...and this? Unbelievable! If we had a choice and could say "this is exactly what will happen", I'd run off with this one into the locker room and call it a good enough game for me. What's particularly surprising is how much colder the 2-m temperatures are through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I got a little excited when I compared 12z to 18z gfs 2m temps.....and now the name does this? THIS is an important and signifcant trend. If 0z gfs stays cold then the is becoming quite real. Can't say any of us saw the bl improving like this coming. At least I didn't... There comes a point before a storm with model watching when you say this is looking quite real. If the GFS shows even half the qpf and temp profile I think we may be at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 jackpot wintergreen va. i'm at canaan valley loving it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the NAM happened as depicted, that's a good banding signal for the city and points n&w. I like the position of the 700mb WF and also a deep saturated layer for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 jackpot wintergreen va. i'm at canaan valley loving it I said it was going to be a tight gradient, but that's down right evil for those to the north we've been there, done that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not sure what you're seeing, Matt. Verbatim, it's a pretty good snowfall for RIC, especially those just to the north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There comes a point before a storm with model watching when you say this is looking quite real. If the GFS shows even half the qpf and temp profile I think we may be at that point. I'll add that if the GFS and Euro show anything remotely like this amount of QPF, along with similar 2-m temperatures, then we've got something quite real. Sure would be nice to give the new camera a good "field test" on a snow event that's more than an inch this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What about RIC - does the cold air come down enough for snow or does it stay rain b/c of the more northerly track? 00Z NAM verbatim...everything before 12Z Sunday looks like snow. So could see some accumulations overnight before sleet/frzr/rain during the day ending as a bit of snow, maybe an inch or two. Or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Folks - one quick note - if you are quoting a post with images in it, unless it is 100% necessary, please try not to quote the images as well. It makes the page much harder to read with images repeated many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I said it was going to be a tight gradient, but that's down right evil for those to the north we've been there, done that how sad were you for boston on feb 6? yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the NAM happened as depicted, that's a good banding signal for the city and points n&w. I like the position of the 700mb WF and also a deep saturated layer for a time. I hope you guys could share and we can all end this wretched winter on a high note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powhatan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ric - I wonder if we'll really get the cold air to come in? Around here we see to always have the metroarea bisected by the rain/snow line at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 how sad were you for boston on feb 6? yeah... admittedly, after the stretch we had, I had no tears but having been on both sides of the trace line and the pleasure of 09/10, I don't really care any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Checking soundings down my way-- sleet will be an issue. Hour 60 or so spikes to 2-3 c and then several other hours have 1-2 c warm noses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I hope you guys could share and we can all end this wretched winter on a high note We are done I think (well at least BOS). Maybe the Cape can get scraped. I'm gonna have to deal with this as far as work goes, so I'm watching it. Good luck to you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess the more interesting thing tonight will be what the 3z SREFs look like; although, it is still too early yet for these to have a lot of weight. I agree with Scott that all the NAM should be telling us is the potential for a sick band with the mid-level deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the NAM happened as depicted, that's a good banding signal for the city and points n&w. I like the position of the 700mb WF and also a deep saturated layer for a time. The sounding is also pretty interesting for dca. For weenies, look for the convectively unstable layers. I'm not sure they are deep enought to support thunder but they are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NELoop.html 10+ inches of snow for DC and points southwest....0Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We are done I think (well at least BOS). Maybe the Cape can get scraped. I'm gonna have to deal with this as far as work goes, so I'm watching it. Good luck to you guys. You've been done for awhile I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not sure what you're seeing, Matt. Verbatim, it's a pretty good snowfall for RIC, especially those just to the north and west of the city. you're prob right..I shoud stick to DC...I did a quick eyeball but I always forget that RIC is further north than I think at 1st glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Cutting the NAM qpf in half is good principle... Even so, that's .6 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM verbatim BWI: http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA: http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Makes me happy to see 850/700 tracks favorable for banding over the northern portions of the metros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You've been done for awhile I think. Yeah we have been. I had some hope we could maybe get at least grazed, yesterday..but I don't think it's going to happen. I swear 7/10 times this would have probably come north enough to graze us, but the confluence this time around is killing us, even without a strong block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 48 hr RGEM looks a bit like the NAM at 48 hrs to this weenie http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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