stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 matt says gfs nails us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 interesting run....slower and colder but further south and not as much QPF...we still get nailed pretty good...I like where we stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS at 75 had 0.25" QPF at DCA and SW... 18z GFS at 69 has 0.00 QPF at DCA and 0.1" or less to SW why are you micro-analyzing the GFS 70+ hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's way slower. right more to come after 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 interesting run....slower and colder but further south and not as much QPF...we still get nailed pretty good...I like where we stand You also mentioned earlier that slower was better. Better sticking chances with nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 matt says gfs nails us Yes, it comes later... Matt may have gotten his 6 hrs later wish on this GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 interesting run....slower and colder but further south and not as much QPF...we still get nailed pretty good...I like where we stand Basically all snow. 0.4"-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 matt says gfs nails us well..me and you get it pretty good, and I just like where we stand...someone else is going to come in and say I only get 0.2" QPF.....When I text you something referring to me and you being 3 blocks away from each other it isnt the same thing as forecasting for the entire region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 why are you micro-analyzing the GFS 70+ hours out? Lol. That's our yoda. He'll micro analyze if the low was at the Mississippi river or 20 miles east on the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 good hit for everyone at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 right more to come after 69 It's still south though. Out to 87 gfs has .5" line just south of DC, compared to south PA at 12z. Precip makes it to C NJ compared to NYC/Cape Cod at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Basically all snow. 0.4"-ish It is a goofy looking run...still lots to be worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol. That's our yoda. He'll micro analyze if the low was at the Mississippi river or 20 miles east on the last run I was analyzing how slow it was.... yeah thats it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hmm.. I kinda like it. Certainly slower and a bit weaker. Deform still there. WV still looking to be the sweet spot. It's really hard to complain with this run. NAM was slower too (and of course further south) You could see the nam going south and the gfs holding on to the more north track kinda early on in the runs too. Which is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's still south though. Out to 87 gfs has .5" line just south of DC, compared to south PA at 12z. Precip makes it to C NJ compared to NYC/Cape Cod at 12z. Thanks...we wouldnt know how to read a model without 40N's help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS at 75 had 0.25" QPF at DCA and SW... 18z GFS at 69 has 0.00 QPF at DCA and 0.1" or less to SW you made me analyze my post like i was looking at the wrong map lol. yea it's slower. hr 72 is my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It is a goofy looking run...still lots to be worked out It's all snow and I'd take it in a heartbeat. It is goofy but so was the nam and Euro looks. It's the funny stuff happening in the northern stream. Change the strengh and timing a little and you go from nothing to a decent accumulating snow. That's why its best to be wishy washy until you have to make a decision or like in 2010 it's a no brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's still south though. Out to 87 gfs has .5" line just south of DC, compared to south PA at 12z. Precip makes it to C NJ compared to NYC/Cape Cod at 12z. I had 2 windows open comparing the last run and it updated I meant to say 75 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's all snow and I'd take it in a heartbeat. It is goofy but so was the nam and Euro looks. It's the funny stuff happening in the northern stream. Change the strengh and timing a little and you go from nothing to a decent accumulating snow. That's why its best to be wishy washy until you have to make a decision or like in 2010 it's a no brainer. yes....very hard to have confidence in the exact track and banding, etc....I think we all need to be flexible....I have decided to chase if I think I am going to be missed, but I like where I stand for a 3" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hmm.. I kinda like it. Certainly slower and a bit weaker. Deform still there. WV still looking to be the sweet spot. It's really hard to complain with this run. NAM was slower too (and of course further south) You could see the nam going south and the gfs holding on to the more north track kinda early on in the runs too. Which is right? IF the nrn stream speeds up and/or lifts north faster a bit more once over central NY state, I could see us getting in on better lift 75 hr and later it looks like the confluence over NE hurts us who are east of the mts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually think this run of the GFS is better then some are giving it credit. GFS often has issues with the energy transfer on coastals and jumps lows too far to the east or even southeast. With this run it suddenly jumps the low that had been moving steadily NE straight ESE then resumes its northeast trajectory. This often leads to the appearance with this 18z gfs where heavy precip is taking a direct line right at us, then just dies out over WV. This is usually wrong and corrects itself closer in. Of course the GGEM/Euro solution could be right...but if the GFS is right with its general ideas...the end result might be better then this run indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Juicy in Western WV...total precip in the 1.5 to 1.75" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yes....very hard to have confidence in the exact track and banding, etc....I think we all need to be flexible....I have decided to chase if I think I am going to be missed, but I like where I stand for a 3" storm I too think we're in a pretty good place. We debated putting a 3 inch probability in the CWg piece and decided against it feeling things were too uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Juicy in Western WV...total precip in the 1.5 to 1.75" range probably not good to be in sweet spot today as things always shift. In any case I was at my place in Hardy County today and the last of the last three mini snows are down to the last few patches so time for some new snow. I will be back there tomorrow through Monday and would gladly take an October repeat. The count down begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not a good trend over the last 18 hours as everything trending south. Even the previously robust GFS has drastically cut precip in each of its last 2 runs. Luckily, there is still time for things to swing back north a bit to give us a modest event. However, today's trends have been bad. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks...we wouldnt know how to read a model without 40N's help LOl, nice Matt. Overall your call looks pretty good but damn this might be an all or nothing for you guys. Should be an interesting day tomorrow. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm out to 21hrs, though I am not usually much faster than the NCEP site itself....I've seen them restart the run before, but it is rare and don't remember that in quite a while Thanks for posting that. Good point. Is there some issue that causes the models to sometimes run slowly? I noticed over on the psu site, the sref members, which usually update about a panel per minute when they are coming in, are updating at about a panel per 5 minutes. A little late to the party...I am the lucky one working today and yes the NAM 00-36 hour forecast job landed on a bad node. We figured it out when AWC called very early in the run. There was a GDAS analysis job on the node too that was late and that cascaded down to SREF and Smartinit delays. But the GFS is on time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z GEFS at 60 loaded at 1003 mb in W AL to 84 997 mb 200 to 300 miles offshore east of Norfolk... def south of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not a good trend over the last 18 hours as everything trending south. Even the previously robust GFS has drastically cut precip in each of its last 2 runs. Luckily, there is still time for things to swing back north a bit to give us a modest event. However, today's trends have been bad. MDstorm I kinda disagree here. The shift in both track of the low and strength have been quite subtle really. The precip shield has shift more south in relation to the track but still, I think we should be pretty happy. 18z gfs slowed the system down so i compared the panels from that were the most similar with low placement instead of place in time. 12z @ 78 and 18z @ 75 show the suface low in almost the same spot but 850's are clearly futher south than 12z. Maybe it means nothing but it's at least noteworthy. 540 line is further south on 18z too. Again, not sure if it is splitting hairs but imo it gives us a better chance at snow. 2m temps are much better on 18z. Freezing line in a MUCH better spot @ hr 75 on 18z and then most. Hr 78 shows the 32 degree line pretty much along I-95. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that I'm just hoping for accum snow. 3-4" would be awesome and the 18z gfs gives me a much better chance of that than 12z. Sure I would love to have it all but I would gladly take less snow in exchange for a subfreezing surface. Kids gotta go sledding this year and a mud-snow ground isn't as fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I kinda disagree here. The shift in both track of the low and strength have been quite subtle really. The precip shield has shift more south in relation to the track but still, I think we should be pretty happy. 18z gfs slowed the system down so i compared the panels from that were the most similar with low placement instead of place in time. 12z @ 78 and 18z @ 75 show the suface low in almost the same spot but 850's are clearly futher south than 12z. Maybe it means nothing but it's at least noteworthy. 540 line is further south on 18z too. Again, not sure if it is splitting hairs but imo it gives us a better chance at snow. 2m temps are much better on 18z. Freezing line in a MUCH better spot @ hr 75 on 18z and then most. Hr 78 shows the 32 degree line pretty much along I-95. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that I'm just hoping for accum snow. 3-4" would be awesome and the 18z gfs gives me a much better chance of that than 12z. Sure I would love to have it all but I would gladly take less snow in exchange for a subfreezing surface. Kids gotta go sledding this year and a mud-snow ground isn't as fun. Thanks for the insight Bob. I agree and I think its better then everyone is giving it credit for. This is not a bad run!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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