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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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matt says gfs nails us

well..me and you get it pretty good, and I just like where we stand...someone else is going to come in and say I only get 0.2" QPF.....When I text you something referring to me and you being 3 blocks away from each other it isnt the same thing as forecasting for the entire region...

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Hmm.. I kinda like it. Certainly slower and a bit weaker. Deform still there. WV still looking to be the sweet spot. It's really hard to complain with this run. NAM was slower too (and of course further south)

You could see the nam going south and the gfs holding on to the more north track kinda early on in the runs too. Which is right?

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It is a goofy looking run...still lots to be worked out

It's all snow and I'd take it in a heartbeat. It is goofy but so was the nam and Euro looks. It's the funny stuff happening in the northern stream. Change the strengh and timing a little and you go from nothing to a decent accumulating snow. That's why its best to be wishy washy until you have to make a decision or like in 2010 it's a no brainer.

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It's all snow and I'd take it in a heartbeat. It is goofy but so was the nam and Euro looks. It's the funny stuff happening in the northern stream. Change the strengh and timing a little and you go from nothing to a decent accumulating snow. That's why its best to be wishy washy until you have to make a decision or like in 2010 it's a no brainer.

yes....very hard to have confidence in the exact track and banding, etc....I think we all need to be flexible....I have decided to chase if I think I am going to be missed, but I like where I stand for a 3" storm

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Hmm.. I kinda like it. Certainly slower and a bit weaker. Deform still there. WV still looking to be the sweet spot. It's really hard to complain with this run. NAM was slower too (and of course further south)

You could see the nam going south and the gfs holding on to the more north track kinda early on in the runs too. Which is right?

IF the nrn stream speeds up and/or lifts north faster a bit more once over central NY state, I could see us getting in on better lift 75 hr and later

it looks like the confluence over NE hurts us who are east of the mts.

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Actually think this run of the GFS is better then some are giving it credit. GFS often has issues with the energy transfer on coastals and jumps lows too far to the east or even southeast. With this run it suddenly jumps the low that had been moving steadily NE straight ESE then resumes its northeast trajectory. This often leads to the appearance with this 18z gfs where heavy precip is taking a direct line right at us, then just dies out over WV. This is usually wrong and corrects itself closer in. Of course the GGEM/Euro solution could be right...but if the GFS is right with its general ideas...the end result might be better then this run indicates.

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yes....very hard to have confidence in the exact track and banding, etc....I think we all need to be flexible....I have decided to chase if I think I am going to be missed, but I like where I stand for a 3" storm

I too think we're in a pretty good place. We debated putting a 3 inch probability in the CWg piece and decided against it feeling things were too uncertain.

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Juicy in Western WV...total precip in the 1.5 to 1.75" range

probably not good to be in sweet spot today as things always shift. In any case I was at my place in Hardy County today and the last of the last three mini snows are down to the last few patches so time for some new snow. I will be back there tomorrow through Monday and would gladly take an October repeat. The count down begins :popcorn:

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I'm out to 21hrs, though I am not usually much faster than the NCEP site itself....I've seen them restart the run before, but it is rare and don't remember that in quite a while

Thanks for posting that. Good point.

Is there some issue that causes the models to sometimes run slowly? I noticed over on the psu site, the sref members, which usually update about a panel per minute when they are coming in, are updating at about a panel per 5 minutes.

A little late to the party...I am the lucky one working today and yes the NAM 00-36 hour forecast job landed on a bad node. We figured it out when AWC called very early in the run. There was a GDAS analysis job on the node too that was late and that cascaded down to SREF and Smartinit delays. But the GFS is on time!

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Not a good trend over the last 18 hours as everything trending south. Even the previously robust GFS has drastically cut precip in each of its last 2 runs. Luckily, there is still time for things to swing back north a bit to give us a modest event. However, today's trends have been bad.

MDstorm

I kinda disagree here. The shift in both track of the low and strength have been quite subtle really. The precip shield has shift more south in relation to the track but still, I think we should be pretty happy.

18z gfs slowed the system down so i compared the panels from that were the most similar with low placement instead of place in time. 12z @ 78 and 18z @ 75 show the suface low in almost the same spot but 850's are clearly futher south than 12z. Maybe it means nothing but it's at least noteworthy.

540 line is further south on 18z too. Again, not sure if it is splitting hairs but imo it gives us a better chance at snow. 2m temps are much better on 18z. Freezing line in a MUCH better spot @ hr 75 on 18z and then most. Hr 78 shows the 32 degree line pretty much along I-95.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that I'm just hoping for accum snow. 3-4" would be awesome and the 18z gfs gives me a much better chance of that than 12z. Sure I would love to have it all but I would gladly take less snow in exchange for a subfreezing surface. Kids gotta go sledding this year and a mud-snow ground isn't as fun.

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I kinda disagree here. The shift in both track of the low and strength have been quite subtle really. The precip shield has shift more south in relation to the track but still, I think we should be pretty happy.

18z gfs slowed the system down so i compared the panels from that were the most similar with low placement instead of place in time. 12z @ 78 and 18z @ 75 show the suface low in almost the same spot but 850's are clearly futher south than 12z. Maybe it means nothing but it's at least noteworthy.

540 line is further south on 18z too. Again, not sure if it is splitting hairs but imo it gives us a better chance at snow. 2m temps are much better on 18z. Freezing line in a MUCH better spot @ hr 75 on 18z and then most. Hr 78 shows the 32 degree line pretty much along I-95.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that I'm just hoping for accum snow. 3-4" would be awesome and the 18z gfs gives me a much better chance of that than 12z. Sure I would love to have it all but I would gladly take less snow in exchange for a subfreezing surface. Kids gotta go sledding this year and a mud-snow ground isn't as fun.

Thanks for the insight Bob. I agree and I think its better then everyone is giving it credit for. This is not a bad run!.

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