Zir0b Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I've been saying for 5 years that the 06 and 18Z runs should be abandoned and no longer run by NCEP, it probably costs them more money and all they do is confuse forecasters more often than not. Its hard to believe those runs are crucial for anyone. yeah, well anyway not a bad run all things considered at this range. Certainly interesting enough to keep me hooked for the rest of the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Its not a bad run at all....with such a potent southern stream energy.....it could just do it on itself....you would want to see northern stream energy get out if the way The low was up to Chattanooga before the storm just started shearing out like that. Very, very rare for a low to get that far north without having any impacts here. The confluence would have to be very strong for that to happen. Most times if you have a 1000mb low in NW Alabama, you would be fearing a big-time cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The solutions that involved major northern stream phasing all resulted in a warm and rainy storm for I-95. I think our best shot now would be for the northern stream to move out of the way and allow the southern vort to dig more and amplify and let it come up the coast on its own. Agree 100% with u algreek.....they talk alot about this in the sne thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The gfs I feel should trend now close to a NAM solution here...a coating to 2 inches are possible for a thin swath right up through southern maybe even central new jersey on grassy surfaces with temps in the upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really nice run. Cant complain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Disagree with this. Rain for maybe the usual places for people that are sitting on the ocean itself, but this would be a wet snow type scenario for most. .25-.5" qpf in 6 hours with a good chunk of upper air support isn't going to be rain anywhere around here if the low is way offshore, 850's are several dgrees below zero C, and winds are northerly. It would likely be a 32-33 degree wet snow. This is February, not April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The trend here is north . I think the system comes further north on the modeling over the next 2 days why ? I think the SE ridge is a little stronger as advertised on the Euro Ensembles and the error 3 days out is the models have a SE biased However scince we r moving away from the Bomb scenerio and more towards a flat wave . BL issues are my biggest concern , The models still have introduced a lot of cooling at the surface and without alot of upwarp motion , you lose that part of the equation . You need chicken to make chicken soup , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 .25-.5" qpf in 6 hours with a good chunk of upper air support isn't going to be rain anywhere around here if the low is way offshore, 850's are several dgrees below zero C, and winds are northerly. It would likely be a 32-33 degree wet snow. This is February, not April. We even made down to 33-34 last Saturday with those anemic snowfall rates here. Hopefully this doesn't end up cutting a little too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We even made down to 33-34 last Saturday with those anemic snowfall rates here. Hopefully this doesn't end up cutting a little too close. The problem though will be shared here with this storm...we finished the storm with absolutely nothing on the ground. The falling wet snow was melting the accumulated coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can we not keep these posts in the banter thread? So hard to follow actual model discussion with posts like these. The problem though will be shared here with this storm...we finished the storm with absolutely nothing on the ground. The falling wet snow was melting the accumulated coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The problem though will be shared here with this storm...we finished the storm with absolutely nothing on the ground. The falling wet snow was melting the accumulated coating Well, it makes me nervous during a Nina season when I see a low moving over Alabama that this would end up hugging the coast more than the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The solutions that involved major northern stream phasing all resulted in a warm and rainy storm for I-95. I think our best shot now would be for the northern stream to move out of the way and allow the southern vort to dig more and amplify and let it come up the coast on its own. I think it will be very hard for the southern low to make it up here on it's own. You have the 50/50 low starting out far south over Queebec and Northern New England. That keeps the SE ridge from building more. Then you have trough coming behind trying to kick it out, underneath the 50/50 low. If you look at 78-84hrs, the NAM is trying to phase with second northern stream disturbance, coming down into Great Lakes. But it's a little too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The problem though will be shared here with this storm...we finished the storm with absolutely nothing on the ground. The falling wet snow was melting the accumulated coating We had horrendous snow rates. I would only classify that snow as more than flurries maybe once or twice. 0.25-0.5" in 6 hours is good enough for maybe up to 1"/hour at times, and would definitely stick. Maybe even the 0.1-0.25" in 6 hours stuff would be good enough. And it almost certainly wouldn't be rain if it had any kind of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 00z Euro ensembles were north of the Operational run both with the surface low and the precipitation shield...there definitely were some members leaning closer to the coast -- and bringing us a good snowstorm. At 90 hours the surface low was sub 1000mb south east of Ocean City MD. The 00z ensembles also had bumped north and west tremendously from the earlier 12z run. So just something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think it will be very hard for the southern low to make it up here on it's own. You have the 50/50 low starting out far south over Queebec and Northern New England. That keeps the SE ridge from building more. Then you have trough coming behind trying to kick it out, underneath the 50/50 low. If you look at 78-84hrs, the NAM is trying to phase with second northern stream disturbance, coming down into Great Lakes. But it's a little too late for us. It could be a case of the northern stream staying north without decent blocking and then having the STJ riding further north than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 00z Euro ensembles were north of the Operational run both with the surface low and the precipitation shield...there definitely were some members leaning closer to the coast -- and bringing us a good snowstorm. At 90 hours the surface low was sub 1000mb south east of Ocean City MD. The 00z ensembles also had bumped north and west tremendously from the earlier 12z run. So just something to keep in mind. I think this comes further north i agree with SE ridge idea , my only issue is the model have moved away from the cyclogenesis idea and leaves us more with a pos tilted system . Without a lot of upward motion as of now - do BL issues concern you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is cyclogenesis. Not sure what you are talking about moving away from the cyclogenesis idea. Its not bombogenesis. I think this comes further north i agree with SE ridge idea , my only issue is the model have moved away from the cyclogenesis idea and leaves us more with a pos tilted system . Without a lot of upward motion as of now - do BL issues concern you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It could be a case of the northern stream staying north without decent blocking and then having the STJ riding further north than anticipated. You have still have to deal with the kicker. The STJ would have to hold back longer, to pump enough of a SE ridge, to track that far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is cyclogenesis. Not sure what you are talking about moving away from the cyclogenesis idea. Its not bombogenesis. 1000 mb low not the 988 that was advertised on last nites 18z run - so was making it one in the same Trough is pos tilted not neg more of an open wave - make a ton of difference when implying dynamic cooling and since its 50 degress 24 hrs prior to the storm , thats my issue BL SEEMS TO BE AN ISSUE TO ME IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You have still have to deal with the kicker. The STJ would have to hold back longer, to pump enough of a SE ridge, to track that far enough north. I think that the kicker prevents a solution like the GFS was showing yesterday but could still be far enough west for the models to bring this low further north and hugging the coast more than the models were showing last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 12z GFS is really holding back the main energy over the southwest so far...much more so than the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What are the implications? The 12z GFS is really holding back the main energy over the southwest so far...much more so than the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What are the implications? Would not allow the southern vort to catch the northern vort in time to phase. But, by delaying the southern vort, it can also allow the northern stream to get out of the way and allow the southern storm to amplify and pump heights on its own. But it needs room to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 What are the implications? It also seems to be farther south with the northern stream energy that passes through Great Lakes and Northeast at 48 hr...so I would have to say at this point I don't see much arguing for this run to come farther north than the 06z run. That being said, it seems more amped up with the southern stream vort as a whole. So if it waits for a partial phase, it might be able to get up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Would not allow the southern vort to catch the northern vort in time to phase. But, by delaying the southern vort, it can also allow the northern stream to get out of the way and allow the southern storm to amplify and pump heights on its own. But it needs room to do that. That northern stream shortwave and trough over the Great Lakes is very poorly timed at 54 hours. It really acts to suppress the mid level flow so the southern stream has nowhere to go but east. It also induces NW winds at the mid levels behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Heartbreaker. Southern stream was much more organized. We'll see if we can get the northern stream to trend a little quicker and get the heights higher ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The southern stream looks terrific this run, and we have that vort in the Plains which is actually phasing earlier. But the confluence trended stronger this run, so this will probably be wetter for DC, but drier for us. Still have time, though. If the northern stream would move a bit faster, this would have been a great solution, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I also like the banana high to our northwest. If we get more lift and precip up this way, the weenies worry of BL temps will not be an issue at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There certainly is no shortage of moisture with the southern jet; but, we would need quite a timing change for it to get up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That southern vort is really looking potent now, on both GFS and NAM runs. If only that S/W over the Lakes could weaken or be delayed a bit, the trough alignment would be a lot better, the flow would back and this would come roaring right up the coast. As it is, it develops nicely up to NW GA/TN, and then gets sheared east because of the trainwrecked northern stream. If there's only some way we could weaken that or shift the features around slightly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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