supermeh Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM is slowing the northern stream at 36 hours and has it a little more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Remember how excited we all were when VD 2007 was a massive hit 72 hours out? Remember how excited the Mid Atlantic was when VD 2007 was a massive hit for them 96 hours out? This isn't over until Sunday. It was a massive hit for central PA, where I was until I felt the first pings sting me in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Remember how excited we all were when VD 2007 was a massive hit 72 hours out? Remember how excited the Mid Atlantic was when VD 2007 was a massive hit for them 96 hours out? This isn't over until Sunday. Another tidbit to add to that all of our big storms have been ots till 48 hours or less when the nw trend started. We gotta keep that in mind with this miller A system. The models are going to start adjusting small things now that are going to change the track. Btw did the nw canada disturbance hit the U.S. Yet? thats when we'll have a much better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The way I see it panning out right now is.... That the biggest effects of this system will be in the form of rain. For much of the mid Atlantic, 1-2" and up to 3" of rain will fall with temperatures 48-55. Further north, higher terrain inland for the northern midatlantic could see a 3-6" wet snow event. Closer to the coast further north, for areas that could get into the colder side of the storm (PHL, NYC), precip without a good phase will most likely be light with some moderate bursts. Temperatures without a good amount of dynamic cooling will remain in the 36-42 range, possibly getting down to 33 or 34 during a band or two of heavy snow which is possible. I'd say accumulations should range from a coating to 1 inch, with the max areas hitting 2".Without a good source of cold air and extremely heavy precip to overcome that, the max we really could see is a few inches with higher elevated areas up to 6". This should be a very wet snow, and keep in mind, in storms like in October, we had very heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Don't know if anyone read my posts from last night. One of my main concerns is the energy coming in over western Canada that prevents the ridge from pumping and kicks our northern stream low east too quickly which prevents it from digging, amplifying and phasing. If there is a positive that I see with 12z NAM it is that this features seems to have weakened significantly and the ridge is therefore a bit more amped and our northern stream component can hang back a bit more. This needs to be watched on all 12z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM is also and has generally been slower with the ejection of the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Unfortunately the NAM sim radar is all suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Northern stream racing way ahead of the southern @60 hrs. Not an encouraging sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Never a good sign when there's no precip on the cold side of the storm at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Low is over NE MS at 66 hr. How many times has there ever been a low that far NW and no impact from it happened here? Southern stream vort looks quite potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it's also discouraging in the fact that the wavelength is increasing over time with the NAM. Also, a little tidbit to examine at 500 mb.. For a strengthening system, you want to see more energy headed into the base of the trough, then exiting. You can see that really isn't the case with the NAM. The pressure isn't really coming down a whole lot and the trof axis will not negavitely tilt unless a boatload of additional energy dives down into the base of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hr 78 nam....preciep up to bwi...western Va and lower Ohio valley do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Flow over our area continues to be progressive and fast paces from w to e. Not conducive to getting the storm up here, confluence and all of that would shunt this east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 84 nam Trys to turn corner....sizable snow storm from mason dixon line south...qpf makes it to ttn.....01 stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM made a pretty big time jump north. Moderate precip almost up to Sandy Hook at hour 84. Its all southern vort energy but the northern stream moved out fast enough to allow for ridging to increase in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 However the 12z NAM is definitely improved. The ridging is strong so the southern vort can amplify more and accordingly hgts are higher on east coast even up to our area. So the flow is a bit more favorable and this allows for some northern stream interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM really trying this run. Confluence doesn't look terrible, not 2/6/10 level crazy at least. If we can get this southern stream vort strong enough and keep it potent, it might be able to get the job done itself if the northern stream isn't atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 60 and 66 I thought it was going way north because the vort was tilting negative, then it opened again and went more E-NE from 78-84...again that secondary low forming seems to be messing things up...very hard to say if that is a legit solution or not, if its wrong then this could be going markedly north of where the NAM currently shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 84 nam Trys to turn corner....sizable snow storm from mason dixon line south...qpf makes it to ttn.....01 stuff Looking at sims, the precip shield would definetely get into Sandy Hook, and perhaps onto the south shore of LI. A pretty large shift north from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the issue here though is that models aren't trending towards the gfs original solution, But the gfs itself has trended to a more suppressed SE solution other models had...the other models are just taking it north a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah I was gonna say the RH values look good up to Central Jersey at least. Then again, it's the 84hr nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looking at sims, the precip shield would definetely get into Sandy Hook, and perhaps onto the south shore of LI. A pretty large shift north from the NAM. would be rain anyway, if we dont get a dynamic phase its rain...even if the southern vort manages to get this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM really trying this run. Confluence doesn't look terrible, not 2/6/10 level crazy at least. If we can get this southern stream vort strong enough and keep it potent, it might be able to get the job done itself if the northern stream isn't atrocious. Its not a bad run at all....with such a potent southern stream energy.....it could just do it on itself....you would want to see northern stream energy get out if the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 would be rain anyway, if we dont get a dynamic phase its rain...even if the southern vort manages to get this far north. Disagree with this. Rain for maybe the usual places for people that are sitting on the ocean itself, but this would be a wet snow type scenario for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looking at sims, the precip shield would definetely get into Sandy Hook, and perhaps onto the south shore of LI. A pretty large shift north from the NAM. A shift north from the 6z run, but that was a bogus off hour 6z NAM run, pretty similar to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looking at sims, the precip shield would definetely get into Sandy Hook, and perhaps onto the south shore of LI. A pretty large shift north from the NAM. Yeah its a nice bump run north...happy to see...good start to 12z suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Its not a bad run at all....with such a potent southern stream energy.....it could just do it on itself....you would want to see northern stream energy get out if the way The solutions that involved major northern stream phasing all resulted in a warm and rainy storm for I-95. I think our best shot now would be for the northern stream to move out of the way and allow the southern vort to dig more and amplify and let it come up the coast on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A shift north from the 6z run, but that was a bogus off hour 6z NAM run, pretty similar to 0Z. I've been saying for 5 years that the 06 and 18Z runs should be abandoned and no longer run by NCEP, it probably costs them more money and all they do is confuse forecasters more often than not. Its hard to believe those runs are crucial for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A shift north from the 6z run, but that was a bogus off hour 6z NAM run, pretty similar to 0Z. Its north by a good amount and also much slower then 0z NAM. 0Z NAM at hour 84 had the precip ending and heading offshore. 12z NAM at hour 84 still has the storm developing offshore and precip shield north and west still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 60 and 66 I thought it was going way north because the vort was tilting negative, then it opened again and went more E-NE from 78-84...again that secondary low forming seems to be messing things up...very hard to say if that is a legit solution or not, if its wrong then this could be going markedly north of where the NAM currently shows. good observation.. and I'm wondering if it has to do with the origins of where that energy comes from.. which is that cutoff in the southwest.. If you look at the evolution of that vortmax up until that 60-66 hour timeframe.. it is basically in the base of that trof.. that thing was never really driving southeastward at any point... not sure if that has to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.