Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 People often forget a little known rather unscientific but highly useful axiom...the so-called "Bad Winter Rule"...which states that during a pathetic winter, no matter how promising a storm looks, something will find a way to derail it... As I was thinking last night, we would begin to see some consensus as we got within 72 hours; and we did...there seems to be some model agremeent on a winter event (or borderline winter event) from VA to near S. Jersey...as for the 6z NAM and GFS being supressed; 6z runs are *always* supressed, and I would not be suprised to see 12z tick north again; by how much....is questionable. The best thing we have going for us is the fact that the Canadien anticyclone isn't the strongest....the confluence is not as severe as it was on that 2/6/10 debacle...these things tend to trend north in the last 72 hours...and climatologically, NYC and SNE are far more likely to see a snow event than VA...though a little event on 3/1/1980 does cause one pause... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As I was thinking last night, we would begin to see some consensus as we got within 72 hours; and we did...there seems to be some model agremeent on a winter event (or borderline winter event) from VA to near S. Jersey...as for the 6z NAM and GFS being supressed; 6z runs are *always* supressed, and I would not be suprised to see 12z tick north again; by how much....is questionable. The best thing we have going for us is the fact that the Canadien anticyclone isn't the strongest....the confluence is not as severe as it was on that 2/6/10 debacle...these things tend to trend north in the last 72 hours...and climatologically, NYC and SNE are far more likely to see a snow event than VA...though a little event on 3/1/1980 does cause one pause... with the Upton rule in effect probably as many miles as it takes to get to Middlesex County NJ the Upton Zones start in Union County - but seriously -most guidance in the last 12 hours is moving towards one another and that is south and east of our location - by the way NYC is heading towards setting a top 5 or 10 record at least this month for a combined least snowiest - warmest and driest on record - another factor working against us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As I was thinking last night, we would begin to see some consensus as we got within 72 hours; and we did...there seems to be some model agremeent on a winter event (or borderline winter event) from VA to near S. Jersey...as for the 6z NAM and GFS being supressed; 6z runs are *always* supressed, and I would not be suprised to see 12z tick north again; by how much....is questionable. The best thing we have going for us is the fact that the Canadien anticyclone isn't the strongest....the confluence is not as severe as it was on that 2/6/10 debacle...these things tend to trend north in the last 72 hours...and climatologically, NYC and SNE are far more likely to see a snow event than VA...though a little event on 3/1/1980 does cause one pause... Looking at the 06Z GFS you would think the only thing that would prevent this from going north is the relatively rapid west-east progression to the pattern out West. Otherwise it does seem to find somewhat of a blind spot in the confluence with that first vort exiting east at 72 hours and the next disturbance coming a bit too late. As I said before we're close to the final solution but the final solution could be 200 miles off what we have now, thats an epic difference as 200 miles on the 06Z GFS means snow into E PA and SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How is the 6z mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GEFS is close to the OP run and it does bring some light precip amounts into the area http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Were still like what 72 hours out and people are saying its over and euro is gonna be right. Lets not forget that the euro hasnt been on fire thie year either and we shouldnt really say this is done till inside 48 hours when the modela have had "some" decency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GEFS is close to the OP run and it does bring some light precip amounts into the area http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12096.gif Didn't the 0z get almost .75 to nyc? Precip shield going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 84h away, totally fine with the look of the models, just 50-100 miles south of giving us a snowstorm. It still may not work out, but this is miles better than tracking an inland or hugger solution this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Rather see the models south than inland at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I can't help but think that a low cutting over the SE like that will pump the SE Ridge more than the Euro and ENS and GFS are showing and track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Bluewave right on i was just thinking that same thing. The se ridge has really not been touched upon with this storm. Didnt wanna say it first and be ridiculed but i think its foolish right now to say its going south towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Boy some of u were making the 06z gfs out to be horrible....its a take west from being a significant event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Boy some of u were making the 06z gfs out to be horrible....its a take west from being a significant event.... I think it was more the issue it moved east 3 straight runs, if it goes more east at 12Z you're gonna see alot of........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think it was more the issue it moved east 3 straight runs, if it goes more east at 12Z you're gonna see alot of........... Hope not we need one this year that's all make the board happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think it was more the issue it moved east 3 straight runs, if it goes more east at 12Z you're gonna see alot of........... Lol...I would expect so wobbles....we all know that amped up solution was a bit suspect.....very interested in todays run....probably biggest model suit we have had all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol...I would expect so wobbles....we all know that amped up solution was a bit suspect.....very interested in todays run....probably biggest model suit we have had all year and last one Fixed, nam should be getting into range soon to right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Honest question here-does anyone have any concerns about this airmass? I'm seeing mid to upper 40's Fri-Sat...dynamic cooling yes, but some areas look to struggle to stay all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Honest question here-does anyone have any concerns about this airmass? I'm seeing mid to upper 40's Fri-Sat...dynamic cooling yes, but some areas look to struggle to stay all snow? Someone was saying last night if your standing on a beach or in eastern long island you have a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I can't seem to ignore the fact that the NWS doesn't just have my forecast as dry and warm...they actually have it getting up above 50 with rain lol From upton : For now...given that most of the precipitation will either be all rain or a rain/snow mix...am not anticipating a warning level event. However given the uncertainty on track/timing and how the extension of the high to our north evolves...that cannot be completely ruled out. The probability of a warning level event is low enough that it does not warrant mentioning in the severe weather potential statement at this time. It should be noted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not in panic mode yet, but it troubles me somewhat that not one Euro run in the last couple of days has really keyed in on a major storm. Sure, the ensembles showed more promise, but I'd like to see the Euro OP trend toward a bigger event, and soon. We don't need a perfect solution like much of New England does, but I would like to see some cooperation from the northern stream in bringing this north. This time of the year, confluence can kill an event. I think if anything's "ruled out", it's the mega phased GFS solutions of late. Models support the northern stream being faster now and not allowing for a phase. The southern stream will have to do much of the work on its own. That said, like I was saying last night, it's hard to get excited about any particular solution yet because there's so much chaos in this pattern. This still has time to trend north, and very often in Nina patterns they do at the last minute. The SE Ridge could help us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I always believed that the biggest fear was the storm missing us to the SE given the progressive nature of the pattern and the very strong jet streak modeled to our north. I do like seeing the OP euro shift north quite a bit, and it's not like the 6z GfS is awful. It just doesn't seem like we can get a full phase - perhaps a partial one which may or may not bring this storm to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 there are a few things to worry about with this storm - stale airmass , having to rely on dynamic cooling , have to worry about the model trends keeping it south and east of us -much above normal water temps - did I leave anything out ? Track is crucial with this storm for us and its a thread the needle - not much wiggle room - in the past in these types of winters the chances this all comes together to give us a significant snow event is low right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 09Z SREFS = Congrats Azores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREFs look pretty flat and progressive to me. Pretty much the same as 3z, the mean maybe a tick further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 09Z SREFS = Congrats Azores That bad ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That bad ? Decent news is that the mslp is leaning north somewhat...so there is room for improvement and we have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not in panic mode yet, but it troubles me somewhat that not one Euro run in the last couple of days has really keyed in on a major storm. Sure, the ensembles showed more promise, but I'd like to see the Euro OP trend toward a bigger event, and soon. We don't need a perfect solution like much of New England does, but I would like to see some cooperation from the northern stream in bringing this north. This time of the year, confluence can kill an event. I think if anything's "ruled out", it's the mega phased GFS solutions of late. Models support the northern stream being faster now and not allowing for a phase. The southern stream will have to do much of the work on its own. That said, like I was saying last night, it's hard to get excited about any particular solution yet because there's so much chaos in this pattern. This still has time to trend north, and very often in Nina patterns they do at the last minute. The SE Ridge could help us as well. Last weekend the low got going a little too far east to feel the SE ridge. The Euro still underestimated the ridge from it's 96 hr forecast. This time with a Gulf Coast development, I think that it will turn the corner earlier than the euro is currently showing.The question still out there is how much? 96 hr forecast weaker SE Ridge Verified stronger but low got going to late for us to cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hopefully the models are "overadjusting" to the idea that there won't be a major phase between the N/S streams and overcompensated south. Convective feedback, as others have mentioned, could be a problem as well. Tonight and tomorrow AM's runs will be crucial. Still time for the 100-150 mile north shift that would cash us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hopefully the models are "overadjusting" to the idea that there won't be a major phase between the N/S streams and overcompensated south. Convective feedback, as others have mentioned, could be a problem as well. Tonight and tomorrow AM's runs will be crucial. Still time for the 100-150 mile north shift that would cash us in. there will be more changes to this storm and i think it'll be the middle ground between the inland and ots solution. Like bluewave said one thing that we gotta take into account is the se ridge that has tendency to bump things north. We got todays and tonights runs that as you said are gonna be very important to establish an idea of whats gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hopefully the models are "overadjusting" to the idea that there won't be a major phase between the N/S streams and overcompensated south. Convective feedback, as others have mentioned, could be a problem as well. Tonight and tomorrow AM's runs will be crucial. Still time for the 100-150 mile north shift that would cash us in. Remember how excited we all were when VD 2007 was a massive hit 72 hours out? Remember how excited the Mid Atlantic was when VD 2007 was a massive hit for them 96 hours out? This isn't over until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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