MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 3z SREF looks similiar to the 21z SREF. There is a spread to the northeast on the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well it's possible we may not ever see a phase between the nrn and srn stream. So, you have option 2 which is to get the nrn stream system out fast enough, so that the srn stream system can amplify and send the storm further north. It's risky, but can happen. I wouldn't like to count on it, but we may have to. I have some concerns with this outcome. If the northern shortwave is progressive and does not amplify and phase with the southern energy, several things will occur. First it will reinforce the cold/confluence and allow the flow to remain w-e fashioned at a fast pace. Now we rely on just the southern stream system to do the dirty work. Well we would need it to amplify as you stated, so that the hgts ahead of it can rise and the trough can begin to go negative. For this to happen, the southern stream shortwave would need ample time to amplify sufficiently so that the hgts rise dramatically enough and the trough inverts quickly enough as to allow the lp to ride far enough north to impact our area. Even then with the flow oriented west to east from the northern stream shortwave, it acts in a manner to shunt the storm east or prevent any further progression northward, by not phasing with it and racing out ahead of the southern stream energy. To have confidence in the southern stream being able to do the dirty work it would be beneficial to see strong ridging back west to allow amplification. Conversely, we have a pattern/ridge that is deamplifying and progressing eastward that doesn't allow the southern stream energy the time to do so. Pattern remains progressive. This scenario would allow the trough to remain more broad and open as well as progressive and would support a moisture latent southern stream shortwave that's northern progression remains limited. I think this is what most models appear to be showing. This might support a snowstorm for WVA, VA, MD, SE PA, SNJ but would not be favorable for our location. I really believe in this setup, with this pattern and with the features modeled at H5...the only way we are going to get involved with the action is by having the northern stream component interact and phase with the southern energy. This will allow the low to get tugged northward, in what otherwise would be a fast flow. There are two factors which can help increase the odds of preventing the quick progression of the northern component out ahead and east of the southern energy. First would be the block. If that feature is stubborn enough, it might just be capable of preventing the speedy eastward progression and in reality would force the shortwave south into the trough allowing for a more phased solution. Secondly, if the ridging can be a bit more pronounced it can also act in our favor. So as for now, I think the chances for accumulating snowfall are on the rise for some of the aforementioned areas. We are going to need to see some of the changes I alluded to occur in order to get involved in the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I have a sick feeling we're going to get screwed in this storm, it won't be 2/6/10 like but it may be 2/89 like though Tell me about it. Still praying, would love to see all monster hits at 12z tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The CIPS continue to generally have near misses as their top analogs. 2/8/97 and 2/23/87 showing up there. 2/8/97 was a very borderline temp event where 2-3 inches I think fell most areas, but it could have been a decent one had it come 50-100 miles more west. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1997/us0208.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2010/06-Feb-10-500MillibarMaps.html If you want to see an illustration of what I am talking about, check out these maps. Look what happens in a relatively progressive pattern with little interaction from the northern stream and a weak ridge out west. The low does exactly what I described above. Nothing to prevent the low from slipping out. This of course is Feb 5, 2010 and is an extreme example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I have a sick feeling we're going to get screwed in this storm, it won't be 2/6/10 like but it may be 2/89 like though Looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Time to sleep. My last words: if the northern stream shortwave does not hang back and dig resulting in no phase or a weak one, you can kiss this one goodbye for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Keep an eye on the energy entering the Pacific Coast in BC Canada. We need this energy to hang back so that it does not "squash" the ridge therefore preventing "our northern stream component" from hanging back and digging/amplifying. It essentially acts as a kicker and pushes the energy east and ahead of the southern component preventing a phase, the kiss of death. It really comes down to that. We need good hgt rises and the ridge to pump in BC Canada. In my opinion 12z will be huge because these features and how they will unfold should become apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No one should give up on this threat. Still way early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro ensemble mean ticked northward . Good trend at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 06Z NAM and old ETA both seem to possibly be suffering from some sort of convective feedback off the Carolina coast. They both have been showing these dual low centers. At 84 hours the 06Z NAM has one off HAT and another near ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 06Z NAM and old ETA both seem to possibly be suffering from some sort of convective feedback off the Carolina coast. They both have been showing these dual low centers. At 84 hours the 06Z NAM has one off HAT and another near ATL. Not to mention slow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not to mention slow as well. Its completely impossible to resolve what would come of that solution, if the NAM is correct on the main low being off NC its a miss, if the main low is the one over GA the event would still have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That name kept the northern stream moving and the southern stream lagging. Resulting in no intereaction.. or very limited intereaction between the two till very late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro ensemble mean ticked northward . Good trend at 0z. 00Z Thursday ECMWF ensemble mean plus color spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That name kept the northern stream moving and the southern stream lagging. Resulting in no intereaction.. or very limited intereaction between the two till very late in the run. This is likely a near miss right now, how much of one is the main question really. I expect from this point on we aren't going to see any drastic model swings, at least from the GFS/Euro/UK/GEM side, the NAM is at its bad range and is still struggling as usual. By drastic swings I mean models losing the storm or driving it off Georgia or into Buffalo, don't expect anything of that sort now but we could see waffles of 150 miles giving 8 inches in NYC one run and 0 the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The CIPS continue to generally have near misses as their top analogs. 2/8/97 and 2/23/87 showing up there. 2/8/97 was a very borderline temp event where 2-3 inches I think fell most areas, but it could have been a decent one had it come 50-100 miles more west. http://www.meteo.psu...1997/us0208.php I just reverted to CIPS right before you posted this. My brain couldn't take anymore model shenanagens. I figure might as well fall back on analogs...you can't have any more uncertainty than the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS less amped thru 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS says NADA. Figures, weaker, slightly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The CIPS continue to generally have near misses as their top analogs. 2/8/97 and 2/23/87 showing up there. 2/8/97 was a very borderline temp event where 2-3 inches I think fell most areas, but it could have been a decent one had it come 50-100 miles more west. http://www.meteo.psu...1997/us0208.php That was a nice event right up to central Jersey. Solid 5-6" in Holmdel..Not a terrible upper level match...by the way., I thought that 2/4/09 analog worked out really well for thais past weekend event in S. Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Two things: 1/ At hour 84 on the 0z NAM we have a 1024 mb developing anticyclone just NE of Sault Ste Marie...actually a very good spot for a High to be for an East Coast snowstorm...2/ Per the same model run, OKX falls from a 2m temp of 41.5 F with a dewpoint of 36.1F @ hour 78 to a 2m temp of 34.4 F with a dewpoint of 26.1 F @ hour 84. This shows that the cold air from the Ontario centered anticyclone is starting to bleed into the area as it drains down on a north wind...perhaps just enough to keep in cold along the coast; assuming a track of the Low far enough offshore... The anticyclone's presence is further demonstrated on the 6z NAM, where the 2m dewpoint at OKX falls from 33.8 F @ hour 66 to 16.6 F @ hour 84...in what looks like what would eventually be an OTS solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 06Z GFS also briefly shows the dual low structure down in the SE, not sure if thats simply a transfer to the coast or convective feedback. Its unusual for a Gulf low to form and then transfer to another coastal off NC so we may be seeing the dreaded feedback issue again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 for NYC metro what was feared after the 0z run is happening the 6Z GFS continues to trend south and east towards the EURO - in this particular winter where nothing has gone right looking more and more like we are going to be denied once again - this might be one of those situations where its snowing heavily in areas just south of us with temps in the low 30's and here basically nothing and closer to 40 IF this trend continues http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 06Z GFS also briefly shows the dual low structure down in the SE, not sure if thats simply a transfer to the coast or convective feedback. Its unusual for a Gulf low to form and then transfer to another coastal off NC so we may be seeing the dreaded feedback issue again. Really? I feel like that happens quite often especially in cold air damming scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would not worry about trends just yet until the 12z runs. The Euro is really close to giving the area a nice snowfall. It is good to see the euro mean north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 for NYC metro what was feared after the 0z run is happening the 6Z GFS continues to trend south and east towards the EURO - in this particular winter where nothing has gone right looking more and more like we are going to be denied once again - this might be one of those situations where its snowing heavily in areas just south of us with temps in the low 30's and here basically nothing and closer to 40 IF this trend continues http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06096.gif People often forget a little known rather unscientific but highly useful axiom...the so-called "Bad Winter Rule"...which states that during a pathetic winter, no matter how promising a storm looks, something will find a way to derail it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really? I feel like that happens quite often especially in cold air damming scenarios The fact this one nearly gets sub 1000mb and does it is strange and yes I've seen it with a monster high to the NE but this is a weak 1020mb high sliding offshore. Its hilarious to me because you can clearly see how it would shaft someone in VA or NC....probably DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 People often forget a little known rather unscientific but highly useful axiom...the so-called "Bad Winter Rule"...which states that during a pathetic winter, no matter how promising a storm looks, something will find a way to derail it... In this instance though that should mean the thing gets pushed off GA and does not give snow to anyone, a big snow for SE PA, S NJ and the MA would strongly violate that rule as the trend has pretty much been warmer and west all winter. I guess its not entirely out of the cards this thing could still bring no precip into any areas cold enough for snow though I'm thinking time is running out on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In this instance though that should mean the thing gets pushed off GA and does not give snow to anyone, a big snow for SE PA, S NJ and the MA would strongly violate that rule as the trend has pretty much been warmer and west all winter. I guess its not entirely out of the cards this thing could still bring no precip into any areas cold enough for snow though I'm thinking time is running out on that. The rule only applies to the Upton CWA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 People often forget a little known rather unscientific but highly useful axiom...the so-called "Bad Winter Rule"...which states that during a pathetic winter, no matter how promising a storm looks, something will find a way to derail it... Ha, strongly agree. Only this winter could we have such a promising looking potential storm but have it fall just short of closing the deal. It would be only fitting to have this deliver the final kick in balls as it very well might.....Just gut wrenching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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