Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hr 84 light snow up to phl....low on nc /school boarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 990 just east of Norfolk....mod qpf up to phl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Surface low is north of OBX at 90 hrs. Looks like a big hit for DCA up to near PHL or just south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hr 84 light snow up to phl....low on nc /school boarder We might wanna check boundary layer temps to confirm that it is in fact snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Did king just cave into the gfs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just misses at 96....dca gets a good snowstorm and bbwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's a really nice track for DC/etc. Verbatim this run they get a nice snowstorm. Boundary layer a little warm so I might favor the burbs. But the good thing for our area is that the storm is still at 90 hrs...and we just had the Euro jump towards the more amplified solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Did king just cave into the gfs.... It caved at 24-30 hr with the shortwave north of Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We might wanna check boundary layer temps to confirm that it is in fact snow. 850s in central Va....2m temps are mid 30s at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Did king just cave into the gfs.... the amped up gfs solution from last night into today is not looking likely. the euro might have been wrong with how fast it is shooting the norther disturbance but the gfs looked to be way too NW and wrapped up with its phase. its kinda looking like a comprimise at this point from the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's a really nice track for DC/etc. Verbatim this run they get a nice snowstorm. Boundary layer a little warm so I might favor the burbs. But the good thing for our area is that the storm is still at 90 hrs...and we just had the Euro jump towards the more amplified solutions. Yea but we also headed towards an agreement on placement/track. Not going to see this things impact our area unless we can get that northern stream component to interact and phase. My biggest concern is that with minimal ridging out west, it is going to be hard to get that to happen. Really need to see some changes at 12z tomorrow or else I think this will remain a snowstorm for areas just to our south and we will miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not bad looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yea but we also headed towards an agreement on placement/track. Not going to see this things impact our area unless we can get that northern stream component to interact and phase. My biggest concern is that with minimal ridging out west, it is going to be hard to get that to happen. Really need to see some changes at 12z tomorrow or else I think this will remain a snowstorm for areas just to our south and we will miss out. These things tend to trend further north as we get closer especially with a la Nina and a neutral/positive NAO. In fact they usually become too amplified and we get an inland solution. It's still too far out to speculate what may happen and we won't know what's really going to happen until Friday the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the nrn stream was just a bit quicker, that would be a great hit. Still, being 90 hrs out isn't bad and knowing how these srn ULL can behave..maybe we can see a tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 its becoming clearer that there will be a nice juicy system....whether it tucks into the BM or slides off the coast is still the question. i bet we wont really know until the northern disturbance makes its way over the canadian border and is "sampled" better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the nrn stream was just a bit quicker, that would be a great hit. Still, being 90 hrs out isn't bad and knowing how these srn ULL can behave..maybe we can see a tick north. i thought we need the northern disturbance to slow down a bit and dig more? if its quicker then the southern disturbance cant tug up N, and just scoots off the VA coast. no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the nrn stream was just a bit quicker, that would be a great hit. Still, being 90 hrs out isn't bad and knowing how these srn ULL can behave..maybe we can see a tick north. The GFS definitely sped up the N stream on tonight 00z runs...but the Euro also totally caved to the GFS idea with the shortwave north of Montana. The 12z Euro run was incredibly progressive with that feature...the GFS has been generally consistent with that being farther west since last night. I was very skeptical of the GFS in regards to that feature given the Euro's better initialization/etc...so I'm surprised to see it win out here. All of that said...90 hrs away from the storm..you can't feel too confident putting out a forecast right now anywhere on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i thought we need the northern disturbance to slow down a bit and dig more? if its quicker then the southern disturbance cant tug up N, and just scoots off the VA coast. no? Well it's possible we may not ever see a phase between the nrn and srn stream. So, you have option 2 which is to get the nrn stream system out fast enough, so that the srn stream system can amplify and send the storm further north. It's risky, but can happen. I wouldn't like to count on it, but we may have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS definitely sped up the N stream on tonight 00z runs...but the Euro also totally caved to the GFS idea with the shortwave north of Montana. The 12z Euro run was incredibly progressive with that feature...the GFS has been generally consistent with that being farther west since last night. I was very skeptical of the GFS in regards to that feature given the Euro's better initialization/etc...so I'm surprised to see it win out here. All of that said...90 hrs away from the storm..you can't feel too confident putting out a forecast right now anywhere on the east coast. I don't have much confidence, other than to say that the MA is in jeopardy of getting a decent snow event. This area, has little confidence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't have much confidence, other than to say that the MA is in jeopardy of getting a decent snow event. This area, has little confidence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I meant that in a good way. Probably could have said "is under the gun." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I meant that in a good way. Probably could have said "is under the gun." Yea i know, it was just funny how you said in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 its amazing how we can't get a model to show the same solution for 2 runs in a row. That tells us that the setup is hostile and we shold expect more changes with the evolution of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 HPC experimental prob. of four inches of snow or more on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NYC does see some precip on the Euro. It's just under 0.10 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00Z GGEM Total Snow through Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lee Goldberg Finally some model consensus developing. Dry Sunday unlikely. Still have to determine degree of impact , but rain/snow mix a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is normally a good place to be 90 hours out as we shouldn't really be counting on a major hit for us yet. I've found that models who show us getting the bullseye beyond 3 days usually end up screwing us by the day of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00Z KMA Hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I have a sick feeling we're going to get screwed in this storm, it won't be 2/6/10 like but it may be 2/89 like though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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