MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ggem is well north of its previous runs but nowhere near the gfs. Looks closer to the NAM. Agree. Looks like it will miss the area to the south and go OTS. It is still more amplified than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i think we can start taking that amped up solution off the table - the one thing to worry about is the Euro staying south and east and the GFS trending towards its - hope this GFS run was not the start of that trend ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Unless we get a dynamic bomb, this is going to be a rainstorm for the coast, plain and simple. This statement is just plain stupid. Temps just above the surface are below freezing, if you want to argue that coastal locations might now accumulate due to temps just above freezing or poor precip rates thats fine. Otherwise ............jeez nevermind, its not even worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Temp profiles could end up being very similar to the October snowicane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NYC SUN 06Z 19-FEB 3.2 -4.3 1014 83 99 0.04 550 538 SUN 12Z 19-FEB 2.2 -3.8 1008 94 94 0.23 547 541 SUN 18Z 19-FEB 2.7 -4.5 1002 98 98 0.30 541 539 MON 00Z 20-FEB 1.5 -5.2 1005 93 97 0.21 537 533 MON 06Z 20-FEB -0.3 -6.0 1010 90 83 0.02 536 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Need to get that northern stream to interact so that this thing does not slip south and east of us. Also the northern stream interaction will allow some colder air to work in, we need some type of phasing if we are going to see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 UKIE at hour 96 has a broad 995 low east of NC. Looks like it would be too south for us. Similar to the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 0z GGEM has a 996 low 100-200 miles east of the Benchmark. Light precip barely skims the NYC area, so this is a big improvement from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i think we can start taking that amped up solution off the table - the one thing to worry about is the Euro staying south and east and the GFS trending towards its - hope this GFS run was not the start of that trend ...... Very strongly agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Very strongly agree... Nam, ukie and ggem are all pretty similar right now. Gfs is the northern outlier so far with the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would rather take a coastal scraper with a moderate advisory snowfall than a coastal bomb at this point. Too many variables involved that would need to be set correctly for everyone to be winner. Anything less than 5" from this would be a huge disappointment for me, though. Biggest snowfall IMBY this winter minus October is only 4". I do question the lack of QPF from a sub-990 low, but again that's still unimportant compared to the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A little more north and west and we would be good on the GGEM. Good to see this model trend way more amplified from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would rather take a coastal scraper with a moderate advisory snowfall than a coastal bomb at this point. Too many variables involved that would need to be set correctly for everyone to be winner. Anything less than 5" from this would be a huge disappointment for me, though. Biggest snowfall IMBY this winter minus October is only 4". I do question the lack of QPF from a sub-990 low, but again that's still unimportant compared to the grand scheme of things. its gonna get wetter this is a gulf low that is gonna be loaded with moisture. we'll be getting some qpf bombs in the coming days if we are in the hit zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I *hate* when people throw out storms and say it will "be like" one from the past because you can never re-create precisely the same atmospheric conditions twice; though, of course, you can come close...it would be awful, though, if this one ends up following a track similar to that one back in late February, 1989... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nam, ukie and ggem are all pretty similar right now. Gfs is the northern outlier so far with the 0z runs. But the gfs has the data from the g4, the others don't. The Euro does, so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How do you know the Canadian and UKMET center didnt get that data? But the gfs has the data from the g4, the others don't. The Euro does, so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GEFS are way less amped than the 18z run...the northern stream energy is faster and it's really hard to see if the phase is even occurring on the mean. But there seems to be a very large spread still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 They still resemble the OP generally on the mean MSLP/QPF maps..but that was a monster trend aloft for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I *hate* when people throw out storms and say it will "be like" one from the past because you can never re-create precisely the same atmospheric conditions twice; though, of course, you can come close...it would be awful, though, if this one ends up following a track similar to that one back in late February, 1989... This was the one which was forecast to be significant as late as 8AM that morning, but Nassau didn't see a flake while AC got 18" and Montauk got 12", right? I think of that one as the opposite of the Blizzard of 83, where at 8AM the forecast that I recall as a kid was 2-5".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS seems to be struggling with resolving the ageostrophic wind component, it wants to have E winds at the coast early in the event, I'm not sure I buy that. Its 44/27 at JFK on the MOS 00Z Sat eve, if it began precipitating by 07Z its hard to believe we wouldn't be seeing snow and this system if it follows a benchmark track should be dynamic enough to pull this off. bottom line is we are definitely cold enough for a snow event if this takes a classic track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SBU..I thought that would have been mentioned. The GFS and Euro were the only models mentioned. Sorry if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not surprisingly the Euro has now made a major adjustment towards the GFS handling of the northern stream feature near Montana at 30 hr. It remains to be seen if the GFS was too aggressive and they'll meet somewhere in the middle. But this run is definitely more amplified with that feature when compared to the 12z run -- not even remotely similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If these trends hold through tomorrow, game on. We need the precip either way, grass isn't as green as it was in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not surprisingly the Euro has now made a major adjustment towards the GFS handling of the northern stream feature near Montana at 30 hr. It remains to be seen if the GFS was too aggressive and they'll meet somewhere in the middle. But this run is definitely more amplified with that feature when compared to the 12z run -- not even remotely similar. yeah the changes were made within 24hrs, that northern stream s/w is literally backed up 100's of miles more west than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Pretty surprising to see the GFS school the Euro like that on a 30-42 hour forecast over near the International Border north of Montana. Euro will usually be correct with such features. It still looks pretty fast with the northern stream through 54. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Pretty significant height falls over the Plains now...I would be surprised if this wasnt more amplified than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 1004mb over Central Alabama at 72 hours...it doesn't look like we're getting the phasing with the northern stream that the GFS likes at the same time...but the entire trough is pretty amplified regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Surface low is a couple hundred miles farther northwest than it was on the 12z run. Over Central Georgia now at 78 hours. But without the northern stream phase it could be hard to get this up the coast. The GFS uses that to drive the pattern amplitude, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Precip up to DCA at 84 hours. Surface low just northwest/inland from the NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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