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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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We've got some boundary layer problems though -- just a word of caution judging by the 2m temp maps.

Since the snow looks to get going during the overnight hours, it's not a huge concern. Likely a good 12 hours of wind driven paste. Winds are also off shore this run, which the last 2 GFS runs didn't get us.

Amazing though that we have to worry about boundary layer in mid February.

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This run doesn't look too bad... the problem is where does it go next? Maybe it could return north, but with the 0z GFS going south, right now there is no model showing that big storm solution. The foreign models tonight and again at 12z tomorrow should hopefully give a better idea on whether the north/big storm solution is still possible or if it's less likely.

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Since the snow looks to get going during the overnight hours, it's not a huge concern. Likely a good 12 hours of wind driven paste. Winds are also off shore this run, which the last 2 GFS runs didn't get us.

Amazing though that we have to worry about boundary layer in mid February.

gfs has temps in the 40s for the coast...

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gfs has temps in the 40s for the coast...

I think we all know the GFS does a very poor job of forecasting 2m temps, particularly in this region...I've cited the JFK / Bridgeport CT example thousands of times where the GFS will constantly forecast snow @ Kennedy and rain @ Bridgeport <concurrently> because it is a poor model from a mesoscale perspective...

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Its the PBL scheme and from what I recall, it doesnt even know Long Island exists.

I think we all know the GFS does a very poor job of forecasting 2m temps, particularly in this region...I've cited the JFK / Bridgeport CT example thousands of times where the GFS will constantly forecast snow @ Kennedy and rain @ Bridgeport <concurrently> because it is a poor model from a mesoscale perspective...

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gfs has temps in the 40s for the coast...

The GFS is a horrible mesoscale model, and especially at this range can't predict temps worth more than a dart toss. Look at the NAM and see the raging snow it has well to our south in DC/Baltimore, with a weaker and flatter storm. Trust me, if there's a rapidly deepening storm offshore and winds are out of the NNE, it's not going to be anywhere near 40 around here. It's heavy snow. Wet snow, but snow. This is 1000x better than the uber phased solution it had earlier today where we had onshore winds and even a runner up the Apps.

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