MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Alot of moisture coming up at hour 72. This run is going to be colder and more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:08 AM, yl715 said: This is gonna look a bit more like a classic BM track. Phasing is occurring a little further east. weenie run incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Surface low is south of Ocean City MD at 84 hrs. Going to be a nice run for everybody in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Surface low goes directly over the 40/70 benchmark between 90 and 93 hours. Deform at 90hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:12 AM, earthlight said: Surface low goes directly over the 40/70 benchmark between 90 and 93 hours. Deform at 90hrs. Told you John. DT's rule stands true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nice, nice hit. Low emerges near Norfolk and quickly goes to town as it heads NE and the upper support catches up. Lots of heavy snow, for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 We've got some boundary layer problems though -- just a word of caution judging by the 2m temp maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:15 AM, earthlight said: We've got some boundary layer problems though -- just a word of caution judging by the 2m temp maps. Since the snow looks to get going during the overnight hours, it's not a huge concern. Likely a good 12 hours of wind driven paste. Winds are also off shore this run, which the last 2 GFS runs didn't get us. Amazing though that we have to worry about boundary layer in mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:14 AM, jm1220 said: Nice, nice hit. Low emerges near Norfolk and quickly goes to town as it heads NE and the upper support catches up. Lots of heavy snow, for all. looks like around 0.75+ for most. 6-10incher (assuming the BL doesnt f us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This run doesn't look too bad... the problem is where does it go next? Maybe it could return north, but with the 0z GFS going south, right now there is no model showing that big storm solution. The foreign models tonight and again at 12z tomorrow should hopefully give a better idea on whether the north/big storm solution is still possible or if it's less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:15 AM, earthlight said: We've got some boundary layer problems though -- just a word of caution judging by the 2m temp maps. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps090.gif this is a cold rainstorm according to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just saw Lee on Channel 7, he is favoring a more offshore track with just a glancing rain/snow shower. Says the latest run of the model that was showing a bigger hit is starting to shift more south and east, gfs hint hint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:20 AM, NEG NAO said: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps090.gif this is a cold rainstorm according to this Lol I wouldn't go that far. But it's definitely not a powdery snow. There might be some problems on the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:17 AM, jm1220 said: Since the snow looks to get going during the overnight hours, it's not a huge concern. Likely a good 12 hours of wind driven paste. Winds are also off shore this run, which the last 2 GFS runs didn't get us. Amazing though that we have to worry about boundary layer in mid February. gfs has temps in the 40s for the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS is most likely a wet snowstorm. This run looks quite similiar to the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:23 AM, NorEaster27 said: gfs has temps in the 40s for the coast... NYC and west is in the upper 30's and crashing as precip enters. The coast starts in the 40's but quickly drops also. This run is 1,000,000 times better then the phased rainstorm at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:22 AM, earthlight said: Lol I wouldn't go that far. But it's definitely not a powdery snow. There might be some problems on the beaches. second look I agree- the clown snow maps look pretty good http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:23 AM, NorEaster27 said: gfs has temps in the 40s for the coast... I think we all know the GFS does a very poor job of forecasting 2m temps, particularly in this region...I've cited the JFK / Bridgeport CT example thousands of times where the GFS will constantly forecast snow @ Kennedy and rain @ Bridgeport <concurrently> because it is a poor model from a mesoscale perspective... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Would like to see more interaction with the northern stream, would help ensure this doesn't slip east and the colder air works its way in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Its the PBL scheme and from what I recall, it doesnt even know Long Island exists. On 2/16/2012 at 4:26 AM, William said: I think we all know the GFS does a very poor job of forecasting 2m temps, particularly in this region...I've cited the JFK / Bridgeport CT example thousands of times where the GFS will constantly forecast snow @ Kennedy and rain @ Bridgeport <concurrently> because it is a poor model from a mesoscale perspective... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Unless we get a dynamic bomb, this is going to be a rainstorm for the coast, plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:28 AM, NorEaster27 said: Unless we get a dynamic bomb, this is going to be a rainstorm for the coast, plain and simple. This is banter. Post in other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:28 AM, NorEaster27 said: Unless we get a dynamic bomb, this is going to be a rainstorm for the coast, plain and simple. Lmao dude stop being so negative,south shore beaches and easy end have to worry and basically thats a every storm thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 4:23 AM, NorEaster27 said: gfs has temps in the 40s for the coast... The GFS is a horrible mesoscale model, and especially at this range can't predict temps worth more than a dart toss. Look at the NAM and see the raging snow it has well to our south in DC/Baltimore, with a weaker and flatter storm. Trust me, if there's a rapidly deepening storm offshore and winds are out of the NNE, it's not going to be anywhere near 40 around here. It's heavy snow. Wet snow, but snow. This is 1000x better than the uber phased solution it had earlier today where we had onshore winds and even a runner up the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would wait a day and see what happens, don't live and die by one model run although tonight's Euro could be crucial. If it continues OTS then I doubt we see anything, if it trends more amplified, then hope floats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ggem is well north of its previous runs but nowhere near the gfs. Looks closer to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Gem looks more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Models are going to have a very tough time forecasting this storm even at 48hrs out let alone 84+. Its insane how many different s/w are in the game not to mention the posssibility of convection along the gulf coast really messing everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ukie looks good at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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