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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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We're way too far south. Typically any snows generated from a feature like that will be slightly north of it, the NAM seems out to lunch generating all of that precip on the southern side of that vort.

It was right on but a tad weak with the qpf. I had heavy rain in NW NJ for over an hr last night. The vort was strong. Great forcing.

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Most places had a few hundredths. A few locales had over 0.10".

http://raws.wrh.noaa...r1=22&orderby=e

I didnt measure,. But before i left to go out to din din, it was pouring. Then on my way out it was pouring, and while i was out eating it lasted at least another 30-40 mins. I;m probly in the isolated group but it was more than even the NAM had forecasted, Bottom line, the models had qpf so it should not have been a low pop forecast IMO. Especially with all the forcing,

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GFS and NAM give DC zero precip. Feel terrible for them.

The end result is even worse. Look at these two cams, literally 14 miles apart on I-81 in the Shen valley.

First one is Exit 205, about 15 miles south of the town I grew up in (also getting royally screwed right now).

post-1193-0-68173400-1329675723.jpg

This one is from exit 191 near Lexington, VA.

post-1193-0-79208500-1329675745.jpg

Now the precip could eek northward a bit, but on radar it does not look promising. It looks like the line over Lexington and continuing east south of CHO has just stopped dead in its tracks.

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Dc might not be out of the woods yet. Meteorologist Jim Rinaldi just said that the storm is going to track more north than what the models are showing. He is a good met.

It's not looking good dude, precip is not moving very far north, the northernmost band is stuck between RIC and EZF (Fredericksburg).

post-1193-0-56118500-1329676197.gif

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wow to the weenies eye this looks like it is turning the corner - this thing is really teasing us now

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USDC0001

Intellicast radar is very deceiving. For example, Baltimore has reported no precip. DC has very light rain/snow but their forecast was always for a chance of some light precip prior to midnight. There are no surprises here.

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