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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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12z NAM brings measurable precip within 20 miles of the S Shore of Long Island...(continues watching, sort of like that referee at the end of Caddyshack)

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The RGEM also seems north, more so with the surface low than with the precip, the 48 hour position of the low looks relatively far north vs. most guidance, its also notably slower than the NAM from 42-48 hours or so.

Measurable precip up to about Barnegat / the 40th parallel with the 12z RGEM...yes, the Low looks in perfect position...just 75 miles east of Hatteras...in that bathwater...you would think something good would happen...IDK. climatologically, you don't see that many due east tracks of mid latitude cyclones off the NC or VA capes in February...

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Guest Patrick

Interesting, Snowgoose. Wouldn't there be a causal relationship between the latitude gained and the speed/slowdown of the system in general? Not that it helps us much, but it could mean bigger jackpots for the areas already in the warned area.

The RGEM also seems north, more so with the surface low than with the precip, the 48 hour position of the low looks relatively far north vs. most guidance, its also notably slower than the NAM from 42-48 hours or so.

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Its crazy how many extremes there have been. We've had 1988-89, 1996-97, 1997-98, and 2001-2002 all in the top 10 least snowiest....1994-95 and 1992-93 came within a heartbeat of also being in the top 10 as did 1998-1999, 2 were saved in mid-March and the other by a big mid-winter storm. Then you've got 1993-94, 1995-96, 2009-2010, and 2010-2011 on the opposite end of the spectrum. In reality I think its a product of the unsuaully warm conditions globally for most of those winters likely resulting in exceptional moisture and chances for big snow during the colder winters and during the warmer ones....nada...

I agree. It's all about adding more heat to the atmosphere.

http://i.imwx.com/we...atestupdate.pdf

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12z NAM brings measurable precip within 20 miles of the S Shore of Long Island...(continues watching, sort of like that referee at the end of Caddyshack)

12z GFS a good deal less enthusiastic...measurable precip just clipping Cape May...

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Looking at the last 20 years or so, the standard deviation from the mean in terms of snowfall in NYC metro seems to have increased dramatically, especially in the good snow years. (I'm looking at a graph and not the actual data or I'd have gotten the actual numbers.) In short, when we're below the mean, it's usually way below. When we've been above the mean, we're almost always way above. It's been feast or famine.

Bingo, excellent point and I think you will find the same increase in volatility in terms of temps as well. Whatever is happening with the climate, the weather here is becoming a lot more volatile.

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Looking at the last 20 years or so, the standard deviation from the mean in terms of snowfall in NYC metro seems to have increased dramatically, especially in the good snow years. (I'm looking at a graph and not the actual data or I'd have gotten the actual numbers.) In short, when we're below the mean, it's usually way below. When we've been above the mean, we're almost always way above. It's been feast or famine.

We're at a latitude in which our snowfall averages are neither consistenly not snowy or consistently snowy. Places like NC, SC, GA, VA, etc can pretty much count on low snow most seasons, with the exception of a handful of winters. Whereas northern New England, maybe down to interior SNE, most winters you get a decent amount of snow (particularly places that average 60-65"+).

We're in that 20-40" range where some winters struggle to break 5" and others are well over 60/70".

Since 1990, we've only had 3 "near normal" snowfall winters in my opinion --1992/93, 2000/01, and 2008/09. The rest have been great to excellent or bad to terrible. Winters with snowfall around 25-35", near average, seem to be a rarity around here.

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We're at a latitude in which our snowfall averages are neither consistenly not snowy or consistently snowy. Places like NC, SC, GA, VA, etc can pretty much count on low snow most seasons, with the exception of a handful of winters. Whereas northern New England, maybe down to interior SNE, most winters you get a decent amount of snow (particularly places that average 60-65"+).

We're in that 20-40" range where some winters struggle to break 5" and others are well over 60/70".

Since 1990, we've only had 3 "near normal" snowfall winters in my opinion --1992/93, 2000/01, and 2008/09. The rest have been great to excellent or bad to terrible. Winters with snowfall around 25-35", near average, seem to be a rarity around here.

Excellent post. There really is no true average winter here. It's pretty much one extream or an other, possible exception would be the mid and latter 1980's were 20" to 30" winters were the norm.

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Excellent post. There really is no true average winter here. It's pretty much one extream or an other, possible exception would be the mid and latter 1980's were 20" to 30" winters were the norm.

Yeah - the 80s were in the back of my mind with that post. After this winter, I'd sure as hell sign up for any one of the 1980s winters in central NJ, save for 1988-89 and 1989-90.

Definitely a better decade than the 90s for our area.

New Brunswick data:

1980-1981 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.7 8.3 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2

1981-1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 13.5 1.0 0.4 9.5 0.0 0.0 30.9

1982-1983 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 5.1 22.9 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 34.6

1983-1984 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 15.8 0.0 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.3

1984-1985 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.8

1985-1986 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.4 3.7 14.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 24.6

1986-1987 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 25.0 17.4 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.4

1987-1988 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 15.8 5.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.3

1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.1 0.6 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5

1989-1990 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 3.1 4.2 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 17.1

1986-87 was even better in Monmouth County, with 50-55" totals.

What's interesting to note about the 80s -- our two worst winters, 88/89 and 89/90, were a strong La Nina and neutral ENSO respectively. The rest of the 1980s were either neutral or El Nino. Basically - most La Ninas in general are not good for snow in our region (NYC included), and winters following a mod/strong La Nina tend to be bad as well.

At least w/ those neutral 80s winters, we had enough back and forth to get well into the 20s for snowfall. La Ninas love to lock in crappy patterns.

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Additionally - that Western ridge is very important for big snows in the Northeast. No amplification there means a zonal flow downstream in the East, which as we know, basically gives us the result for tomorrow - a Southeast US storm system. Even in the cold La Nina winters, big snows are very difficult to come by b/c of the associated -PNA pattern. The NAO is very important as well, but IMO the Western ridge, even if very brief, is basically a necessity for bigger Eastern snows. Plenty of winters in the 80s had slightly pos NAO signals but the conducive north/east pacific at least provided some moderate/significant type events. Of course there are always exceptions.

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Yeah - the 80s were in the back of my mind with that post. After this winter, I'd sure as hell sign up for any one of the 1980s winters in central NJ, save for 1988-89 and 1989-90.

Definitely a better decade than the 90s for our area.

New Brunswick data:

1980-1981 21.2

1981-1982 30.9

1982-1983 34.6

1983-1984 37.3

1984-1985 25.8

1985-1986 24.6

1986-1987 47.4

1987-1988 25.3

1988-1989 10.5

1989-1990 17.1

The average during the 80s was 27.5"

Here's the 90s:

1990-1991 21.2

1991-1992 9.0

1992-1993 39.1

1993-1994 51.3

1994-1995 14.1

1995-1996 76.5

1996-1997 14.4 (missing Jan)

1997-1998 3.1

1998-1999 14.4

1999-2000 18.7

Average during the 90s was 26.2", though having Jan 1997 would bump that up a tad. Still, yes, not as great in that way.

I prefer the big 90's storms over the big 80's storms, however.

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A period of rain this evening. Kind of snuck in under the radar. Earlier today we were forecasting a 20% chance of scattered showers then it was bumped to 70%. Now, wouldn't that be great if this somehow happened tomorrow with the snow that was to fall way to our south. I know, only wishful thinking.

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Interestingly, the CMC actually appears to have been the closest with the storm from a couple of days ago... 3 days ago, when the GFS had its big storm runs, the CMC was the slowest with the storm, and the latest model consensus is very close to where the CMC had it. Out of the 4 main models (CMC, GFS, UKMET, ECM), it also appears to have been the most stable, as although it had some north/south shifts, the rest of the models had at least one or more runs where NYC was affected by snow, and while the CMC came close, I don't remember seeing it showing snow in NYC.

post-1753-0-82853500-1329614569.png

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