earthlight Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM is already stronger, slower, and farther south with the vortmax over the Great Lakes at 15 hours. Not the best news for the DC crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 FWIW the NAM initialized the Low much weaker than what OBS are showing. It's probably going to be a miss, because it is almost impossible for there to be a significant change in the height field and the timing of the shortwaves, because we are starting to approach the models' deadly range. The strength of the low in Mexico will not make a difference in regards to the track. We need to see more northern energy interaction. We'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM is already stronger, slower, and farther south with the vortmax over the Great Lakes at 15 hours. Not the best news for the DC crowd. This would be the biggest storm of the year for them correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM is already stronger, slower, and farther south with the vortmax over the Great Lakes at 15 hours. Not the best news for the DC crowd. Maybe get some snows from that vort tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Maybe get some snows from that vort tomorrow night. your username is a good description of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Some horrible medium range model guidance here valid 00z Monday...you can see the GFS was completely out to lunch with it's mid-range forecasts for the big phase bomb off the east coas.t http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/tr12f36.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 your username is a good description of this storm That's why I use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 DC suicide watch on the NAM. Ouch, strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 DC suicide watch on the NAM. Ouch, strung out mess. I'm officially doing it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Now we will get a blizzard. I'm officially doing it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nice snow squall signature tomorrow night on the nam. Would be funny if we got more snow than DC from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm officially doing it: Its been over here. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This definitely isn't a good NAM run for y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Did you really expect it to be?? This definitely isn't a good NAM run for y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This definitely isn't a good NAM run for y'all. The NAM hasn't shown anything good for us prior to this run. This run doesn't hurt us; rather it's the status quo - no snow. The people that will be hurting are the people in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nice snow squall signature tomorrow night on the nam. Would be funny if we got more snow than DC from that. Almost every potential we had so far this winter keeps getting messed up... even tomorrow night's light precipitation potential. 850mb temps are below freezing but the boundary layer is very marginal, with the 18z NAM/GFS showing temperatures still near 40 degrees, and with barely light QPF falling, IMO it would be rain in the city and a possible mix or light snow further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Did you really expect it to be?? The NAM hasn't shown anything good for us prior to this run. This run doesn't hurt us; rather it's the status quo - no snow. The people that will be hurting are the people in the Mid Atlantic. That's not entirely true, previous NAM runs have pushed QPF up to NYC. I don't think this run will, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 everything trends to the Euro as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's not entirely true, previous NAM runs have pushed QPF up to NYC. I don't think this run will, however. Places like central Jersey ala Martin land had the best shot in our general region. Looks like they've been taken out of the game along with everyone to the south of them. Pretty brutal run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nam...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If you look at the last 4 runs of the NAM and compare to this one, it really is a pretty radical step toward the GFS/EC. Big wakeup call for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The nam really just bowed to the euro. The good precip doesn't even get into DC this run. What a huge dissapointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Rule: When you're in a bad pattern in a bad winter, anything that can go wrong for getting a significant snowfall, will go wrong. It's simple but true. There were just so many ways that this storm (as a winter storm) was NOT going to happen. And on the other hand, for this storm to happen here, everything had to fall into place perfectly. Now, what were the chances of that happening? WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well I will enjoy the few mangled flakes tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Rule: When you're in a bad pattern in a bad winter, anything that can go wrong for getting a significant snowfall, will go wrong. It's simple but true. There were just so many ways that this storm (as a winter storm) was NOT going to happen. And on the other hand, for this storm to happen here, everything had to fall into place perfectly. Now, what were the chances of that happening? WX/PT Like in a good winter it snows out of every chance....in a bad one it just finds a way to let us down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Like in a good winter it snows out of every chance....in a bad one it just finds a way to let us down Looking at the last 20 years or so, the standard deviation from the mean in terms of snowfall in NYC metro seems to have increased dramatically, especially in the good snow years. (I'm looking at a graph and not the actual data or I'd have gotten the actual numbers.) In short, when we're below the mean, it's usually way below. When we've been above the mean, we're almost always way above. It's been feast or famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 FWIW RGEM has precip up to Philly and 5cm inside DC at 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Maybe get some snows from that vort tomorrow night. We're way too far south. Typically any snows generated from a feature like that will be slightly north of it, the NAM seems out to lunch generating all of that precip on the southern side of that vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looking at the last 20 years or so, the standard deviation from the mean in terms of snowfall in NYC metro seems to have increased dramatically, especially in the good snow years. (I'm looking at a graph and not the actual data or I'd have gotten the actual numbers.) In short, when we're below the mean, it's usually way below. When we've been above the mean, we're almost always way above. It's been feast or famine. Its crazy how many extremes there have been. We've had 1988-89, 1996-97, 1997-98, and 2001-2002 all in the top 10 least snowiest....1994-95 and 1992-93 came within a heartbeat of also being in the top 10 as did 1998-1999, 2 were saved in mid-March and the other by a big mid-winter storm. Then you've got 1993-94, 1995-96, 2009-2010, and 2010-2011 on the opposite end of the spectrum. In reality I think its a product of the unsuaully warm conditions globally for most of those winters likely resulting in exceptional moisture and chances for big snow during the colder winters and during the warmer ones....nada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 FWIW RGEM has precip up to Philly and 5cm inside DC at 48h. GFS is even further south than 18Z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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