MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The best models with this storm were the Nogaps and GGEM. Euro wasn't that bad but the GFS was awful. which model the Euro??? The 0Z and 12Z Euro on weds had this storm out to sea here is 12Z, http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012021512!!/ go to 0Z for proof... If you are referring to GFS, you shouldnt ever look at that model...its as useless as the govt that produces it. GFS shouldn't even be used. The ensembles are also useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The best models with this storm were the Nogaps and GGEM. Euro wasn't that bad but the GFS was awful. GFS shouldn't even be used. The ensembles are also useless. I thought the GEFS was your favorite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I thought the GEFS was your favorite? Only when it shows a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Maybe we can see flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Next Friday the Howie flying Jetblue rule comes into effect. I travel a lot and never get cancelled except when I'm flying Jetblue which has now happened 4 times 3 of them due to weather including the boxing day storm last year! Sorry if that belonged in banter but wanted to throw that out there! This really belongs in the banter thread but my sister is flying Jet Blue from LGA to MCO on Friday. Maybe you will be on the same flight. I am actually flying down on Saturday (weather permitting) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro ensemble mean is so south it gives DC less then .15" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro ensemble mean is so south it gives DC less then .15" of precip. almost seems as if the low will just shoot straight east and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro ensemble mean is so south it gives DC less then .15" of precip. Would coincide with the flavor of this winter - no locallized screw-jobs, basically a Florida to Maine middle finger type winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Would coincide with the flavor of this winter - no locallized screw-jobs, basically a Florida to Maine middle finger type winter. Roanoke/Lynchburg, VA look like the sweet spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Roanoke/Lynchburg, VA look like the sweet spots. They are calling for 5+in back home in Staunton, VA (85 miles NE of Roanoke). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawstudent1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 18z NAM shows the .1 contour reaching So. Middlesex County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Meanwhile the 18z NAM still gives DC close to .75" of precip. .25" line almost to Sandy Hook and the .10" line is almost touching south shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawstudent1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamp24_NE060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Nam looks better this run than 12z. Precip gets up to NYC. I will be rooting for the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nam only gives Philly a couple of inches at best. .50-.75 line over DCA to extreme south jersey...not much change here and it's the furthest north other than the JMA. Central VA is the place to be here--just south of DC and the western 1/3 of the state will be the jackpots - winter storm watches for Kentucky, southern West VA and western VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Nam looks better this run than 12z. Precip gets up to NYC. I will be rooting for the Nam. No, it doesn't look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS pretty much on par with 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not giving up on this until the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 for giggles if this thing actually does end up hitting us it'll be a bigger model bust than boxing day lol.....but this winter wouldnt allow that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 for giggles if this thing actually does end up hitting us it'll be a bigger model bust than boxing day lol.....but this winter wouldnt allow that haha No. Boxing day right now was 200-400 miles offshore. We didn't get the models showing a hit again until 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The boxen day storm is totally different from this storm. Most models predicted it for most of the runs except for a short period you are talking about. I quess we must wait to April to get the noreasters with heavy rain and wind. The NAO should turn negative by then. since it has been positive for four months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 No. Boxing day right now was 200-400 miles offshore. We didn't get the models showing a hit again until 48 hours out. Having had an interest in winter weather since 1982...I'd say the unpleasant suprises outnumber the pleasant suprises by about a 25:1 ratio...and this factors in all the really good years we have had since 2000...if only the ratio in my real life was that good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 No. Boxing day right now was 200-400 miles offshore. We didn't get the models showing a hit again until 48 hours out. We're 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Unfortunately confluence does a great job at ripping a storm to shreds. We didn't have that problem with boxing day. Today we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 When model runs trend toward our area, it is generally longitudinally, not latitudinally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I was browsing through a weather forum, and someone had posted an image of the current location and intensity of the area of Low Pressure. Apparently it seems stronger than what was currently modeled. Correct me if I am wrong on this. What implications might this hold for the storm system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I was browsing through a weather forum, and someone had posted an image of the current location and intensity of the area of Low Pressure. Apparently it seems stronger than what was currently modeled. Correct me if I am wrong on this. What implications might this hold for the storm system? Good obs, I am curious if it would have any effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Good obs, I am curious if it would have any effect If this map is correct, I would imagine it holds significant implications, considering the low was progged to be sub 1004 mb near Georgia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If this map is correct, I would imagine it holds significant implications, considering the low was progged to be sub 1004 mb near Georgia... Yeah but don't we need the shortwave to also help out? Well see nam and srefs out with new data soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah but don't we need the shortwave to also help out? Well see nam and srefs out with new data soon That's why it's interesting with how deep the low already is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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