ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GGEM is also just like the GFS/UKIE/Euro. DC gets about .20"-.25" and nothing meaningful north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC forum says the GGEM went north and gives them .4-.5 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC forum says the GGEM went north and gives them .4-.5 total. GGEM did go north.Has some precip in south Jersey. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 well... I am going to be the ultimate optimist, like Ant, and not throw in the towel quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This might end up being a better analog than 2/6/10: http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2010/30Jan2010.pdf. And 1/30/10 is actually higher (#3) on the CIPS analog list for this event than 2/6/10 (#11): http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg=. I was at Upton for both events that winter and at least with 1/30, you could see the snow on radar offshore, but the heavy snow totals only got as far north as Cape May NJ. The extreme gradient of 2/6/10 was interesting meteorologically, but infuriating nonetheless, to watch unfold on radar and thankfully the rest of February 2010 brought the goods. The vertically pointing radar at SBU had virga for something like 12 hours, interspersed by a few periods when snow actually made it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 well... I am going to be the ultimate optimist, like Ant, and not throw in the towel quite yet. Barring a miracle on tonight's 0z suite, I'm waving the white flag. The phasing looks like it just won't happen in time, and the resistance from dry confluence looks to be too great for people north of Philly. Doesn't look like we'll miss a huge event, looks like a 4-8" deal down there, maybe more over the Blue Ridge and west of DC, but still a big disappointment in this non-winter. I'm totally down with seeing 60s and 70s again, sun, and just having this nightmare be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Jeeze, that 30db dot is just over IMBY in Monmouth Co and then nothing 7 mi North. Regardless though, it will be cool to see someone from RIC to PHL Get buried. The NAM simulated radar is often too high with the reflectivity values, especially near the northern fringe. That 30dbz would probably be realized closer to 20dbz, and the cutoff might be slightly less severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How can we forget that event? Over half a foot in southern SI to nothing in NYC. This might end up being a better analog than 2/6/10: http://cms.met.psu.e...0/30Jan2010.pdf. And 1/30/10 is actually higher (#3) on the CIPS analog list for this event than 2/6/10 (#11): http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F072&flg=. I was at Upton for both events that winter and at least with 1/30, you could see the snow on radar offshore, but the heavy snow totals only got as far north as Cape May NJ. The extreme gradient of 2/6/10 was interesting meteorologically, but infuriating nonetheless, to watch unfold on radar and thankfully the rest of February 2010 brought the goods. The vertically pointing radar at SBU had virga for something like 12 hours, interspersed by a few periods when snow actually made it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The GEFs mean is very dry for DC south. That's unfortunate for NVa, De, and Md, and hopeless for us. The magnitude of inter-run changes is rapidly decreasing. This winter the models continuously seem to lock onto a solution after it has shifted away from any snow potential. There's still probably a 1/10 chance of measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 There's always this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Good lord. Another fantasy storm for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There's always this Make the bad man stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Mother nature is just playing around and torturing us, but it's almost over, have patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 fixed MODELS are just playing around and torturing us, but it's almost over, have patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The models have been quietly hinting at future chances, but even I will want to see it short range to believe it if this storm fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 1st Yankee game on YES .....March 4 th . Winter done in a blink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Make the bad man stop Next Friday the Howie flying Jetblue rule comes into effect. I travel a lot and never get cancelled except when I'm flying Jetblue which has now happened 4 times 3 of them due to weather including the boxing day storm last year! Sorry if that belonged in banter but wanted to throw that out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro? per the philly thread-further south--misses everyone from DCA north--what a joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro = horrible, further south then 0z even misses DC , exits near charleston,sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro? Not even close; even DC gets little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro? Horrible.. Don't even look. Time to move on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Horrible.. Don't even look. Time to move on..... You know we'll still model watch - it's just that everyone rightfully has no expectations now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I feel bad for the DC folks-rug just pulled out-doubt the Euro is wrong either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow yeah..Euro even further south. Anyone who still thinks we are in the game is wishcasting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Over. Finito. Next... season please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow yeah..Euro even further south. Anyone who still thinks we are in the game is wishcasting at this point. For our area, this has been over for a few days now. People just clinged to a false sense of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 For our area, this has been over for a few days now. People just clinged to a false sense of hope. Remember the big rainstorm that it showed on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Or the .35 to .50 it had for NYC 36hrs before we got, well .000005 last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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