PB GFI Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would rather see 50 and sunny than have that happen again. resembles I-81 between fulton and watertown . I hope i never see that again , unless im under it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let's make it 65 while we're at it. Seriously though, if we can't get snow... I hope the MA gets buried. I know the cold air source blows and all...but i'm loving this water vapor loop for the mid-Atl...Dynamic cooling for the win hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let's make it 65 while we're at it. Seriously though, if we can't get snow... I hope the MA gets buried. Thats not allowed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let's make it 65 while we're at it. Seriously though, if we can't get snow... I hope the MA gets buried. Agree...going to be cool to track and watch them get snow.....something interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z rgem appears like it moves the confluence out pretty quickly and it also has a closed h5 low in mid country at hour 48. http://www.weatherof...cast/600_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is going to be awesome to watch unfold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is going to be awesome to watch unfold.... In one of the most boring winters of tracking, im not going to complain....not like they been going south all winter long....wonder if dca bwi ric end up with more snow then phl nyc bos this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is going to be awesome to watch unfold.... ... or painful depending on where you live. Just look at all that shear from the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Jeeze, that 30db dot is just over IMBY in Monmouth Co and then nothing 7 mi North. Regardless though, it will be cool to see someone from RIC to PHL Get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ... or painful depending on where you live. Just look at all that shear from the North. I guess my sarcasm via italics didn't shine through, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 it would have been nice if the energy over eastern KS, western MO would phase a little better with the energy over Alabama. They are remaining separate pieces for too long of a period of time. That is probably our only chance at good enough amplification, since it's not going to do a full phase with the northern stream. It looks like it is trying, but it's either not going to happen completely or a bit too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the confluence was weaker, this would have most likely went right up the coast. We are getting screwed left and right this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z gfs is drier with the northern extent through 57 hrs wehen compared to 63 on the 6z...but it may just be subtle timing differences with that. i noticed the trough evolution was a bit slower on this run...In the end, this run isnt going to change anything for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 it would have been nice if the energy over eastern KS, western MO would phase a little better with the energy over Alabama. They are remaining separate pieces for too long of a period of time. That is probably our only chance at good enough amplification, since it's not going to do a full phase with the northern stream. It looks like it is trying, but it's either not going to happen completely or a bit too late. Yeah, that seems to be the one factor that can save us here. The pieces of energy behind the main southern vort are just moving too slow, and don't look like they'll catch the storm in time, before the confluence starts ripping it apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the confluence was weaker, this would have most likely went right up the coast. We are getting screwed left and right this winter. Thank you captain obvious. Or if there was a block, or no trough digging into the west coast..Yada yada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the confluence was weaker, this would have most likely went right up the coast. We are getting screwed left and right this winter. that's not helping the situation either, but the pieces of energy coming together to make up the southern stream storm are not phasing all that well.. that is why you are basically not seeing this storm intensify all that much. If the models are mishandling the way the pieces of energy interact with each other, it's a whole new story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 No major changes on the 12z gfs...a little weaker with the surface reflection, a little south with the 0.01 cutoff.. Probably looks a little more like the 00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Outside wed 18z GFS the models have been fairly consistenet arguing confluence - Minor differences of 50 miles run to run of where it establishes .10 - etc , but if Euro holds serve , hard to argue with it is what it is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Moderate precip not really making it past DC this run. Perhaps the NAM is even too far north if other models like the UKMET/Euro hold serve in being further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 UKIE looks very similar to the 0z euro of last night. DC gets about .25". Almost nothing north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The GFS looked good at 36 hours because the northern vort over KS was more south and stronger than the 00Z run but nothing really came of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Moderate precip not really making it past DC this run. Perhaps the NAM is even too far north if other models like the UKMET/Euro hold serve in being further south. I really don't see this trending north, at all. The confluence is so strong and suppresses heights down into the mid atlantic which will force the storm to jumpe ENE. GFS and EURO look almost exactly alike now, waiting on the 12z run but i wouldn't expect any major jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How does the 12z RGEM compare to the GFS and the rest of the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is going to be awesome to watch unfold.... Didnt this happen in March of 1999? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It is beginning to become clear (at least I think) that the southern anomaly (as suggested by the guidance) is weaker and shallower than earlier progged, and will also be weakened substantially by latent heat release/strong diabatic processes as it passes near the GOM. In many ways it is a double whammy with both northern stream influence affecting upper height field processes/low level advective processes as well as a weaker southern anomaly which will prevent more vigorous warm sector advection as this system traverses the SE. Tropo heights on the 18Z GFS look unimpressive, so I would have to think SNE/NYC are nearly completely out of the picture here. VA and farther S locations will have to watch and see what type of height falls there are as there will be a "late to the party" CCB given the positive tilt nature of this system (i.e., this storm will be dependent upon low level height falls for profile cooling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The GFS looked good at 36 hours because the northern vort over KS was more south and stronger than the 00Z run but nothing really came of it. yea. it didn't really phase well at all with energy east of it.. in fact, the upper levels in the southern stream never quite look healthy enough to support an intensifying system. More than likely, it's being sustained a little more on the liftining mechanisms against the barclonicity that develops across the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Jason (baroclinic_instability) really knows his stuff. Whatever he may be discussing, it is worth reading.. this guy is great and knows his stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Jason (baroclinic_instability) really knows his stuff. Whatever he may be discussing, it is worth reading.. this guy is great and knows his stuff. Yes he does. He was talking about how the boxing day storm was going to shift west when the models had it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Euro really owned the forecast on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Jason (baroclinic_instability) really knows his stuff. Whatever he may be discussing, it is worth reading.. this guy is great and knows his stuff. Yeah he's good. And 100% right in regards to this trending away from impacting areas north of philly. And it may even get worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.