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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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it would have been nice if the energy over eastern KS, western MO would phase a little better with the energy over Alabama. They are remaining separate pieces for too long of a period of time. That is probably our only chance at good enough amplification, since it's not going to do a full phase with the northern stream. It looks like it is trying, but it's either not going to happen completely or a bit too late.

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it would have been nice if the energy over eastern KS, western MO would phase a little better with the energy over Alabama. They are remaining separate pieces for too long of a period of time. That is probably our only chance at good enough amplification, since it's not going to do a full phase with the northern stream. It looks like it is trying, but it's either not going to happen completely or a bit too late.

Yeah, that seems to be the one factor that can save us here. The pieces of energy behind the main southern vort are just moving too slow, and don't look like they'll catch the storm in time, before the confluence starts ripping it apart.

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If the confluence was weaker, this would have most likely went right up the coast. We are getting screwed left and right this winter.

Thank you captain obvious.

Or if there was a block, or no trough digging into the west coast..Yada yada...

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If the confluence was weaker, this would have most likely went right up the coast. We are getting screwed left and right this winter.

that's not helping the situation either, but the pieces of energy coming together to make up the southern stream storm are not phasing all that well.. that is why you are basically not seeing this storm intensify all that much. If the models are mishandling the way the pieces of energy interact with each other, it's a whole new story.

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Moderate precip not really making it past DC this run. Perhaps the NAM is even too far north if other models like the UKMET/Euro hold serve in being further south.

I really don't see this trending north, at all. The confluence is so strong and suppresses heights down into the mid atlantic which will force the storm to jumpe ENE. GFS and EURO look almost exactly alike now, waiting on the 12z run but i wouldn't expect any major jumps.

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It is beginning to become clear (at least I think) that the southern anomaly (as suggested by the guidance) is weaker and shallower than earlier progged, and will also be weakened substantially by latent heat release/strong diabatic processes as it passes near the GOM. In many ways it is a double whammy with both northern stream influence affecting upper height field processes/low level advective processes as well as a weaker southern anomaly which will prevent more vigorous warm sector advection as this system traverses the SE.

Tropo heights on the 18Z GFS look unimpressive, so I would have to think SNE/NYC are nearly completely out of the picture here. VA and farther S locations will have to watch and see what type of height falls there are as there will be a "late to the party" CCB given the positive tilt nature of this system (i.e., this storm will be dependent upon low level height falls for profile cooling).

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The GFS looked good at 36 hours because the northern vort over KS was more south and stronger than the 00Z run but nothing really came of it.

yea. it didn't really phase well at all with energy east of it.. in fact, the upper levels in the southern stream never quite look healthy enough to support an intensifying system. More than likely, it's being sustained a little more on the liftining mechanisms against the barclonicity that develops across the southeast.

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Jason (baroclinic_instability) really knows his stuff. Whatever he may be discussing, it is worth reading.. this guy is great and knows his stuff.

Yeah he's good. And 100% right in regards to this trending away from impacting areas north of philly. And it may even get worse than that.

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