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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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Unfortunately the s/w in the south is weaker for the 2nd straight run, even though the height field relaxed slightly over New England.

Once the Euro locked into a suppressed solution it never wavered. The GFS rainstorm solution of a couple of days ago

may be one of the worst GFS misses in quite some time.

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Unless some serious improvements occur later today, I'm throwing in the towel. We really need for some kind of a phase to occur between the various pieces from the northern stream and our system, and perhaps some further weakening of the upper low to the NE. If these don't happen, I don't see this as being any kind of an event north of Philly. As I said last night, although it's far from an exact match there are quite a number of similarities to 2/6/10 here, and it's much more conducive a setup for a DC/VA/MD snowstorm.

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Sim radar shows that at hour 60, C NJ is in the moderate precipitation.

NYC is still out of it.

Yeah, there is a lot I don't like about this run. Several things went against us. Yet it still somehow managed to print out around .3 to phl and .08 to staten island. You cannot just ignore that. If something improves slightly, it might actually snow.

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Well...then we were talking about just missing 20-30 inches...here we're talking about missing 2-3....big difference

In a winter like this, missing 2-3 inches, is about as bad as missing 20-30 in a year like 2010.. All us weenies want is a legitimate snowfall.. Many snowstarved weenies would cherish a 2-3" blanket of white!

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Hm it did bring it north about 50-75 miles. Phl now 2-3 inches

and even that is questionable-daytime snows with borderline temps and only .25 of precip-alot of that's going to melt on contact unless it's a burst of snow...you really need to be in the .50 area which is down closer to BWI....

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It was. My Aunt lives in Bloomingdale which is near the last exit in Staten Island.

All I remember is the Upton AFD that afternoon was classic, they literally did not know what to do so they had to put advisories out all the way to Westchester and coastal CT. I think only SI was under a winter storm warning which wound up being right. Had that gradient occurred 80 miles north over rural areas it would have been meaningless but it setup in the worst possible place to magnify a busted forecast.

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All I remember is the Upton AFD that afternoon was classic, they literally did not know what to do so they had to put advisories out all the way to Westchester and coastal CT. I think only SI was under a winter storm warning which wound up being right. Had that gradient occurred 80 miles north over rural areas it would have been meaningless but it setup in the worst possible place to magnify a busted forecast.

I was under a wsw in Brooklyn to I think Brooklyn staten and southern queens

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I would rather see 50 and sunny than have that happen again.

It was bad enough watching multiple waves of heavy snow get eaten up by the dry air on the night of the 5th (look at how the snow line sags to the ESE through PA and NJ, just goes to show the power of that confluence here). Waking up on the 6th though to a light maybe 1" on the ground and a ridiculous snow band right off the beach was just infuriating. You could literally see the dark storm clouds right offshore, and barely even a high cloud deck to the north.

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