eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Another good run for the mid-Atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 A close miss for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sim radar shows that at hour 60, C NJ is in the moderate precipitation. NYC is still out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unfortunately the s/w in the south is weaker for the 2nd straight run, even though the height field relaxed slightly over New England. Once the Euro locked into a suppressed solution it never wavered. The GFS rainstorm solution of a couple of days ago may be one of the worst GFS misses in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unless some serious improvements occur later today, I'm throwing in the towel. We really need for some kind of a phase to occur between the various pieces from the northern stream and our system, and perhaps some further weakening of the upper low to the NE. If these don't happen, I don't see this as being any kind of an event north of Philly. As I said last night, although it's far from an exact match there are quite a number of similarities to 2/6/10 here, and it's much more conducive a setup for a DC/VA/MD snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Once the Euro locked into a suppressed solution it never wavered. The GFS rainstorm solution of a couple of days ago may be one of the worst GFS misses in quite some time. and it's still quite a bit south of the Nam solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 .25" line almost gets to Sandy Hook on this run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 A close miss for the area Literally, to the inch, like 2/6/10. I'd rather gouge my eyes out than repeat that disaster. And the real shame is, it's a fair possibility here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hm it did bring it north about 50-75 miles. Phl now 2-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Literally, to the inch, like 2/6/10. I'd rather gouge my eyes out than repeat that disaster. And the real shame is, it's a fair possibility here. Well...then we were talking about just missing 20-30 inches...here we're talking about missing 2-3....big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sim radar shows that at hour 60, C NJ is in the moderate precipitation. NYC is still out of it. Yeah, there is a lot I don't like about this run. Several things went against us. Yet it still somehow managed to print out around .3 to phl and .08 to staten island. You cannot just ignore that. If something improves slightly, it might actually snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hm it did bring it north about 50-75 miles. Phl now 2-3 inches Doubt it. It's toasty this weekend, and not sure how much is wasted on saturation. Rh fields aren't too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well...then we were talking about just missing 20-30 inches...here we're talking about missing 2-3....big difference In a winter like this, missing 2-3 inches, is about as bad as missing 20-30 in a year like 2010.. All us weenies want is a legitimate snowfall.. Many snowstarved weenies would cherish a 2-3" blanket of white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The precip shield expanded to the north from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Once the Euro locked into a suppressed solution it never wavered. The GFS rainstorm solution of a couple of days ago may be one of the worst GFS misses in quite some time. The Euro got the speed of northern stream right. The GFS likes to start phasing out West too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hm it did bring it north about 50-75 miles. Phl now 2-3 inches and even that is questionable-daytime snows with borderline temps and only .25 of precip-alot of that's going to melt on contact unless it's a burst of snow...you really need to be in the .50 area which is down closer to BWI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Literally, to the inch, like 2/6/10. I'd rather gouge my eyes out than repeat that disaster. And the real shame is, it's a fair possibility here. I received 2 inches from that storm while Staten Island got 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well...then we were talking about just missing 20-30 inches...here we're talking about missing 2-3....big difference Granted the amounts won't be the same, but it would still be gruesome to watch good snows falling just a few miles away from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I received 2 inches from that storm while Staten Island got 7 inches. Damn, where on SI did they see 7 inches? It must have been the far SW tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Damn, where on SI did they see 7 inches? It must have been the far SW tip. It was. My Aunt lives in Bloomingdale which is near the last exit in Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 so so close for NYC..... this might be the 'perfect' just miss scenario. It does look slower in the west, and the northern stream is slightly less suppressed over the NE vs. 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It was. My Aunt lives in Bloomingdale which is near the last exit in Staten Island. All I remember is the Upton AFD that afternoon was classic, they literally did not know what to do so they had to put advisories out all the way to Westchester and coastal CT. I think only SI was under a winter storm warning which wound up being right. Had that gradient occurred 80 miles north over rural areas it would have been meaningless but it setup in the worst possible place to magnify a busted forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Damn, where on SI did they see 7 inches? It must have been the far SW tip. There were flurries and maybe a light dusting at the Battery, a heavy coating by the S.I. Ferry, and 6-7" on the far sw end...insane. What is that 10-15 miles tops? Even within my town in NJ it went from 10-15 inches north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Damn, where on SI did they see 7 inches? It must have been the far SW tip. bulls head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 All I remember is the Upton AFD that afternoon was classic, they literally did not know what to do so they had to put advisories out all the way to Westchester and coastal CT. I think only SI was under a winter storm warning which wound up being right. Had that gradient occurred 80 miles north over rural areas it would have been meaningless but it setup in the worst possible place to magnify a busted forecast. I was under a wsw in Brooklyn to I think Brooklyn staten and southern queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Meanwhile I measured the most dissapointing 8" in my life on Cook Campus/Rutgers (I was amazed and partially grateful though considering the NYC folk)...It went down as 6.8" officially at the COOP site down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would rather see 50 and sunny than have that happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would rather see 50 and sunny than have that happen again. Let's make it 65 while we're at it. Seriously though, if we can't get snow... I hope the MA gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would rather see 50 and sunny than have that happen again. It was bad enough watching multiple waves of heavy snow get eaten up by the dry air on the night of the 5th (look at how the snow line sags to the ESE through PA and NJ, just goes to show the power of that confluence here). Waking up on the 6th though to a light maybe 1" on the ground and a ridiculous snow band right off the beach was just infuriating. You could literally see the dark storm clouds right offshore, and barely even a high cloud deck to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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