CooL Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 50/50 low and the strong area of confluence really suppresses heights off the east coast into an unfavorable fashion to get the storm to turn up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 3z srefs a good bump north of 21z, orange marking on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 3z srefs a good bump north of 21z, orange marking on the benchmark. It would be fitting for some sort of insane tease run to come from the NAM or GFS at 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It would be fitting for some sort of insane tease run to come from the NAM or GFS at 06Z. You see the arw and nmm?pretty amped up at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Euro is not even close to the 21Z old ETA, that means one of them is wrong, at least it usually does. lol, wouldn't one of them have to be wrong if they arent even close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Of course the 06Z NAM comes in slightly more suppressed, typically the NAM follows the SREFs on its run, the exception always seeming to be the 06Z NAM almost always varies from the 03Z SREFS, have never understood the reason for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It is really only two SREF members that may be the reason for the bump poleward of the mean QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 lol, wouldn't one of them have to be wrong if they arent even close? The 03Z old ETA was about 30 miles more south but still way north of the Euro with its precip. Again, I am not a big fan of the Euro inside 72 hours when most other guidance shows something else, in this case the MSLP tracks are not too different among most models but the Euro and GEM are suppressing the precip sheilds a bit more than reality. I don't believe DC stays dry and thats what the Euro would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just awful. This northern stream and confluence are just killing any chance at this getting north of Philly. Either the southern vort has to be much stronger, phase happen quicker, or the confluence weaken significantly for us to have a shot. Worth watching until 0z runs tonight, but if there's no marked improvement by then, this threat's about done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 9z SREFs are awful. Further south than 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unless... there's a hidden shortwave in Canada behind the primary northern stream wave that appears near the upper great lakes @48hr. We would need such a phantom wave to phase with the southern stream and create a s/w ridge in Ontario and in the lower Lakes. I think then we'd be in business. Gettin there. That shortwave near Minneapolis was not there at 12z, or rather, was much further northeast and associated with lower height contours. If that minor change is real and it's modeled slightly stronger, we should get a little s/w ridging in the lower Lakes. That should get us at least light precip to the southern metro. Frankly I think the NYC area still has a decent shot at a moderate hit. Unfortunately on the 06z run the southern wave was also a little weaker, so the results were mixed. I think we do better at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Going to need a miracle to get anything of substance in NYC region--northern fringe won't do it as that's non accumulating snow with the warm temps...even Philly is in trouble at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Gettin there. That shortwave near Minneapolis was not there at 12z, or rather, was much further northeast and associated with lower height contours. If that minor change is real and it's modeled slightly stronger, we should get a little s/w ridging in the lower Lakes. That should get us at least light precip to the southern metro. Frankly I think the NYC area still has a decent shot at a moderate hit. Unfortunately on the 06z run the southern wave was also a little weaker, so the results were mixed. I think we do better at 12z. Unless those northern stream features can speed up somehow and catch the southern feature, the phase will likely happen too late and the wave(s) will begin to dampen and weaken against the confluence. We need the phasing to happen sooner, so we have a much stronger overall system pushing up against the confluence. The upper low over the Maritimes weakening or shifting north a little would be very helpful too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unless those northern stream features can speed up somehow and catch the southern feature, the phase will likely happen too late and the wave(s) will begin to dampen and weaken against the confluence. We need the phasing to happen sooner, so we have a much stronger overall system pushing up against the confluence. The upper low over the Maritimes weakening or shifting north a little would be very helpful too. I agree that at this juncture it's probably too late for a significant phase since the primary northern stream shortwave is misaligned. I can only recall one instance where a miracle unmodeled phase happened this late in the game from this far off, but I will not mention that storm. So I'm conceeding that the southern wave will dampen. But there's still a ton of moisture heading into the mid-Atlantic, and a surface low could still strengthen slowly even if the mid-levels are weakening. So I'm rooting for a slight northward shift in the precip shield just before it slides eastward. Salvaging a snowy Sunday (something like 2-4") would really ease the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's difficult to say for certain, but through 30hrs it looks like the NAM might be trying to clear a bit more space to the north. The s/w's near Nebraska and North Dakota are slightly stronger and further west. And the s/w in the lakes is slightly further east. Slightly optimistic for a QPF bump north. I would like to see the .1 contour reach Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's difficult to say for certain, but through 30hrs it looks like the NAM might be trying to clear a bit more space to the north. The s/w's near Nebraska and North Dakota are slightly stronger and furtherwest. And the s/w in the lakes is slightly further east. Slightly optimistic for a QPF bump north. I would like to see the .1 contour reach Staten Island. In order to really lock down accums, I'd like to see 0.25+ anywhere near the coast. Light, spotty stuff could be a mix, or wouldn't accumulate well on the warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Too bad again there's no blocking-that would be great at forcing these northern stream waves south and causing a major phase. The storm would then be forced into a favorable track because of the block. The block directly made the difference between a likely whiff last 12/26 and the major storm/blizzard we got. The block forced the northern energy due south and directly into the southern stream, and forced the resulting storm to take a hard left and nail us. Now, we just have to hope the waves speed up a little bit so they can catch each other. Much more reliant on luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 In order to really lock down accums, I'd like to see 0.25+ anywhere near the coast. Light, spotty stuff could be a mix, or wouldn't accumulate well on the warm ground. I'd like to see .5 to NYC and .75 to PHL. And I still think it's possible. But first I want to see a real synoptic trend that could actually allow the storm to come further north. For me, evidence of such a trend would be the .1 contour nearing our location. That would still give time for continued trending. And the .25 and .5 contours are not far behind the .1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NAM looks farther south with the vortmax over New England...I would be surprised if this run didn't go south a bit with the precipitation shield. Barring the unforseen, this one's over. Like I said earlier in the week..this storm had the potential, given the synoptic setup around it, to bring us an 8th or 9th inning comeback on the winter. But, as it seems now, we left a bunch of guys stranded on base. Fits the script of the winter pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The s/w that screws us over looks like it may try and phase instead of kicking the storm SE... Look over ND and compare to the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NAM looks farther south with the vortmax over New England It's also significantly faster with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's also significantly faster with the northern stream. I guess you could say that. But by 45 hr the stronger vortmax passing near our area has already done the damage. The height field is less amplified and our mid level winds are screaming out of the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like its headed for basically the same solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NAM looks farther south with the vortmax over New England...I would be surprised if this run didn't go south a bit with the precipitation shield. Barring the unforseen, this one's over. Like I said earlier in the week..this storm had the potential, given the synoptic setup around it, to bring us an 8th or 9th inning comeback on the winter. But, as it seems now, we left a bunch of guys stranded on base. Fits the script of the winter pretty well. I see a slight relaxation in the height field near NYS at 42hrs. I think the precip shield could still approach NYC, even if it doesn't this run. Southern stream storms occasionally send precip further north than modeled. A bombing low off the delmarva solution is very unlikely at this point, but I'm not ready to give up on any hope of snow. Not just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The s/w that screws us over looks like it may try and phase instead of kicking the storm SE... Look over ND and compare to the 0z run forky, I think you might be right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not for nothing, but most of the models have been fairly consistent w/ bringing this storm south and east of our region for the last 24 hours.. What we've all been doing is hoping and praying that the models weren't reading a shortwave there, or another intricuite detail there, correctly.. Well, we have i guess 1 more shot (the 00z model runs tonight) to see if this thing is going to come north a bit, but I think as John has said - it pretty much over folks.. You win some and you lose some.. This winter is definitely a loser.. There is no other way to put it.. Bring on Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The s/w that screws us over looks like it may try and phase instead of kicking the storm SE... Look over ND and compare to the 0z run Yeah, noted above. At least a portion of the s/w. The mid-level flow is still generally suppressive out of the NW or W, especially in northern NYS, but we might be able to get just enough southerly flow to get some moisture into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unfortunately the s/w in the south is weaker for the 2nd straight run, even though the height field relaxed slightly over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 West Virginia actually does do very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 By 54hr I see no meaningful improvement. In fact, due to the weaker, duller southern s/w, I think it's slightly worse. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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