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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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lol, wouldn't one of them have to be wrong if they arent even close?

The 03Z old ETA was about 30 miles more south but still way north of the Euro with its precip. Again, I am not a big fan of the Euro inside 72 hours when most other guidance shows something else, in this case the MSLP tracks are not too different among most models but the Euro and GEM are suppressing the precip sheilds a bit more than reality. I don't believe DC stays dry and thats what the Euro would say.

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Just awful. This northern stream and confluence are just killing any chance at this getting north of Philly. Either the southern vort has to be much stronger, phase happen quicker, or the confluence weaken significantly for us to have a shot. Worth watching until 0z runs tonight, but if there's no marked improvement by then, this threat's about done.

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Unless... there's a hidden shortwave in Canada behind the primary northern stream wave that appears near the upper great lakes @48hr. We would need such a phantom wave to phase with the southern stream and create a s/w ridge in Ontario and in the lower Lakes. I think then we'd be in business.

post-1474-0-13118100-1329486373.jpg

Gettin there.

That shortwave near Minneapolis was not there at 12z, or rather, was much further northeast and associated with lower height contours. If that minor change is real and it's modeled slightly stronger, we should get a little s/w ridging in the lower Lakes. That should get us at least light precip to the southern metro. Frankly I think the NYC area still has a decent shot at a moderate hit.

Unfortunately on the 06z run the southern wave was also a little weaker, so the results were mixed. I think we do better at 12z.

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post-1474-0-13118100-1329486373.jpg

Gettin there.

That shortwave near Minneapolis was not there at 12z, or rather, was much further northeast and associated with lower height contours. If that minor change is real and it's modeled slightly stronger, we should get a little s/w ridging in the lower Lakes. That should get us at least light precip to the southern metro. Frankly I think the NYC area still has a decent shot at a moderate hit.

Unfortunately on the 06z run the southern wave was also a little weaker, so the results were mixed. I think we do better at 12z.

Unless those northern stream features can speed up somehow and catch the southern feature, the phase will likely happen too late and the wave(s) will begin to dampen and weaken against the confluence. We need the phasing to happen sooner, so we have a much stronger overall system pushing up against the confluence. The upper low over the Maritimes weakening or shifting north a little would be very helpful too.

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Unless those northern stream features can speed up somehow and catch the southern feature, the phase will likely happen too late and the wave(s) will begin to dampen and weaken against the confluence. We need the phasing to happen sooner, so we have a much stronger overall system pushing up against the confluence. The upper low over the Maritimes weakening or shifting north a little would be very helpful too.

I agree that at this juncture it's probably too late for a significant phase since the primary northern stream shortwave is misaligned. I can only recall one instance where a miracle unmodeled phase happened this late in the game from this far off, but I will not mention that storm.

So I'm conceeding that the southern wave will dampen. But there's still a ton of moisture heading into the mid-Atlantic, and a surface low could still strengthen slowly even if the mid-levels are weakening. So I'm rooting for a slight northward shift in the precip shield just before it slides eastward. Salvaging a snowy Sunday (something like 2-4") would really ease the pain.

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It's difficult to say for certain, but through 30hrs it looks like the NAM might be trying to clear a bit more space to the north. The s/w's near Nebraska and North Dakota are slightly stronger and further west. And the s/w in the lakes is slightly further east.

Slightly optimistic for a QPF bump north. I would like to see the .1 contour reach Staten Island.

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It's difficult to say for certain, but through 30hrs it looks like the NAM might be trying to clear a bit more space to the north. The s/w's near Nebraska and North Dakota are slightly stronger and furtherwest. And the s/w in the lakes is slightly further east.

Slightly optimistic for a QPF bump north. I would like to see the .1 contour reach Staten Island.

In order to really lock down accums, I'd like to see 0.25+ anywhere near the coast. Light, spotty stuff could be a mix, or wouldn't accumulate well on the warm ground.

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Too bad again there's no blocking-that would be great at forcing these northern stream waves south and causing a major phase. The storm would then be forced into a favorable track because of the block. The block directly made the difference between a likely whiff last 12/26 and the major storm/blizzard we got. The block forced the northern energy due south and directly into the southern stream, and forced the resulting storm to take a hard left and nail us. Now, we just have to hope the waves speed up a little bit so they can catch each other. Much more reliant on luck.

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In order to really lock down accums, I'd like to see 0.25+ anywhere near the coast. Light, spotty stuff could be a mix, or wouldn't accumulate well on the warm ground.

I'd like to see .5 to NYC and .75 to PHL. And I still think it's possible. But first I want to see a real synoptic trend that could actually allow the storm to come further north. For me, evidence of such a trend would be the .1 contour nearing our location. That would still give time for continued trending. And the .25 and .5 contours are not far behind the .1.

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The NAM looks farther south with the vortmax over New England...I would be surprised if this run didn't go south a bit with the precipitation shield. Barring the unforseen, this one's over.

Like I said earlier in the week..this storm had the potential, given the synoptic setup around it, to bring us an 8th or 9th inning comeback on the winter. But, as it seems now, we left a bunch of guys stranded on base. Fits the script of the winter pretty well.

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The NAM looks farther south with the vortmax over New England...I would be surprised if this run didn't go south a bit with the precipitation shield. Barring the unforseen, this one's over.

Like I said earlier in the week..this storm had the potential, given the synoptic setup around it, to bring us an 8th or 9th inning comeback on the winter. But, as it seems now, we left a bunch of guys stranded on base. Fits the script of the winter pretty well.

I see a slight relaxation in the height field near NYS at 42hrs. I think the precip shield could still approach NYC, even if it doesn't this run. Southern stream storms occasionally send precip further north than modeled. A bombing low off the delmarva solution is very unlikely at this point, but I'm not ready to give up on any hope of snow. Not just yet.

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Not for nothing, but most of the models have been fairly consistent w/ bringing this storm south and east of our region for the last 24 hours.. What we've all been doing is hoping and praying that the models weren't reading a shortwave there, or another intricuite detail there, correctly.. Well, we have i guess 1 more shot (the 00z model runs tonight) to see if this thing is going to come north a bit, but I think as John has said - it pretty much over folks.. You win some and you lose some.. This winter is definitely a loser.. There is no other way to put it.. Bring on Spring!

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The s/w that screws us over looks like it may try and phase instead of kicking the storm SE... Look over ND and compare to the 0z run

Yeah, noted above. At least a portion of the s/w. The mid-level flow is still generally suppressive out of the NW or W, especially in northern NYS, but we might be able to get just enough southerly flow to get some moisture into the area.

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