SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What is the northern extent of he GGEM's precip? Too far south likely, the GEM has a tendency for some reason to be too restricted with the precip on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 00z GEFS are flatter and more south with the QPF than the 12z GEFS were. Almost no precipitation makes it into NYC on the 00z GEFS, while on the 12z GEFS the .1-.25 inch QPF contour was north of New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 00z GEFS are flatter and more south with the QPF than the 12z GEFS were. Almost no precipitation makes it into NYC on the 00z GEFS, while on the 12z GEFS the .1-.25 inch QPF contour was north of New York City. Just for comparison, is this north of 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The DC area looks pretty good as of now for a sizeable event. It would be delicious irony that they could be ahead of us and Boston by Monday for the season. Since 1891-92, there have been 7 seasons in which Washington, DC had more snow than both Boston and New York City. The most recent such season was 2009-10: DCA: 56.1"; NYC: 51.4"; BOS: 35.7". There was one case in which Washington, DC had more seasonal snowfall than Boston and New York City in consecutive winters: 1978-79 and 1979-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just for comparison, is this north of 18z? It's pretty much impossible to compare the SLP on the 18z GEFS to the 00z GEFS because the GEFS on the free Raliegh WX site are in 12 hour increments. Looking at total 24 hour QPF, the overall QPF field looks to have shifted a bit to the SE compared to the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not surprising when you consider the volatality of the models from run to run. Now with the 00z models so far, the trend has been more north, and faster with the northern stream. the models seem to be painting a pretty consistent theme.... and it ain't good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the models seem to be painting a pretty consistent theme.... and it ain't good for us. NYC is still fringe enough to get something out of this - maybe a better chance where I am, but I hope we all enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the models seem to be painting a pretty consistent theme.... and it ain't good for us. I'm holding until the 12z models today... after that, I will buy what the models show, because after that it's very hard to get substantial changes in the details with the models within that timeframe from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm holding until the 12z models today... after that, I will buy what the models show, because after that it's very hard to get substantial changes in the details with the models within that timeframe from the storm. From the NWS, Washington, DC area discussion: "ONE THING IS FOR SURE...GUIDANCE WILL FLUCTUATE AND THE FORECAST WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. STAY TUNED". If that is true for them it is true for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 From the NWS, Washington, DC area discussion: "ONE THING IS FOR SURE...GUIDANCE WILL FLUCTUATE AND THE FORECAST WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. STAY TUNED". If that is true for them it is true for us. That's correct. I was just saying that the margin of error will significantly diminish as we progress forward with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That's correct. I was just saying that the margin of error will significantly diminish as we progress forward with time. True, thanks! ? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 00z JMA came north. Looks like it gives the area a decent amount of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That's correct. I was just saying that the margin of error will significantly diminish as we progress forward with time. Not really, just last week most guidance had .50+ for NYC metro just 24h out and look how that one turned out? Of course this is very different setup and the one major limiting factor now is that confluence to our north, gonna be tough to nudge that north 100 miles. But it can happen just as easily as a no phase and much weaker solution that screws DC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not really, just last week most guidance had .50+ for NYC metro just 24h out and look how that one turned out? There are very few exceptions when it comes down to 24 hours before the storm. Hopefully the ECMWF comes out with a better solution for our area, I haven't heard anything about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The euro is atrocious for our area. Seems to match up well with the H5 depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro is sooo far south that it barely gives baltimore anything. It is much similar to the gfs over the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The euro is atrocious for our area. Seems to match up well with the H5 depiction. I kind of figured since no one dared to post what was going on with it. Good Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If for some reason you were still grasping at straws, don't be deceived any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am pulling for the NAM, as I will be heading down to Atlantic City on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I heard it was amped like the nam at 54-60 then just went crappy from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The euro is atrocious for our area. Seems to match up well with the H5 depiction. Lol for our area? the .10 precip line doesnt get north of Lewes DE's latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 looks like all in all, the euro had the right idea the entire time. the gfs being amped up for a few runs the past couple days/nights was obv high on crack. no matter how you slice it, when it comes to EC snows within the D7 range, its euro all the way. it might have been wrong with a couple features here and there, but the end result constantly whipped the gfs. obv its not over but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro looked good and amped like the NAM for a while, and then suddenly shunts east. Tomorrow, maybe we can improve on that feature. With that, good night. Euro hasn't been so good this year that I'd even trust it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There are very few exceptions when it comes down to 24 hours before the storm. Hopefully the ECMWF comes out with a better solution for our area, I haven't heard anything about it yet. Euro, oh well, JMA FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro looked good and amped like the NAM for a while, and then suddenly shunts east. Tomorrow, maybe we can improve on that feature. With that, good night. Euro hasn't been so good this year that I'd even trust it now. No we can't, move on. There is nothing favorable at all about this pattern depicted at H5, it does not produce snowstorms for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Lol for our area? the .10 precip line doesnt get north of Lewes DE's latitude. I wanted to be gentle, especially since so many people continued to believe in this atrocious setup. lol I figured if I was that blunt, people might react negatively haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 No we can't, move on. There is nothing favorable at all about this pattern depicted at H5, it does not produce snowstorms for us. Sorry, can't move on yet. 12z tomorrow should be telling. Even the MA forum wonders what went wrong because the Euro looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sorry, can't move on yet. 12z tomorrow should be telling. Even the MA forum wonders what went wrong because the Euro looked good. What happens in Baltimore is irrelevant to our area. There is nothing that could possibly alter the outcome for our area, areas to our south need to focus on the northern extent of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Euro is not even close to the 21Z old ETA, that means one of them is wrong, at least it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I wanted to be gentle, especially since so many people continued to believe in this atrocious setup. lol I figured if I was that blunt, people might react negatively haha haha yeah, once the low gets into the SE it moves ENE. Getting the low to turn up the coast and/or getting precip into our area is looking less and less likely. Good luck to all those in the southern mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.