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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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This is definitely not a lean towards a Euro solution...in fact it doesn't look like it's leaning any direction with the Euro and GFS obviously being the outliers in either direction. The southern stream shortwave is just a bit too slow...if it had ejected faster it likely would have looked more like the GFS.

This is going to take a while to resolve.

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Liking the H5 set up in sern Canada on the NAM. 50/50 low in perfect position prior to the storm, very nice confluence with sfc high pressure and seemingly chillier look at 850mb than the GFS. The phase is a near miss but this still looks like a monster storm for the mid atlantic.

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Looking at Sim radar at 84 hours it looks like the NAM wants to turn the corner real bad. Heavy bands up to central NJ.

It's very close to phasing with the northern stream. I'm becoming increasingly confident that an out to sea solution will probably not occur. Would be surprised if the Euro didn't come north tonight.

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IMO I'm having trouble seeing how you can have a southern slider and a strong PV with a positive NAO and no strong HP to the North. In my mind it will come down to

a. the timing of the northern and southern stream branches

b. the strength of the downstream feature coming out of British Columbia

c. the strength of the vort coming onshore in WA state behind our event

If the 0z suite begins to trend towards the three good GFS runs we had today, I would feel better about light precip. at least reaching I90 for this event. I predict the 0z GFS will be a bit further East of its previous run, but not as south as the 6z run.

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Such intricate interactions that will or won't take place between the northern and southern streams, with numerous involved shortwaves. I still think a plethora of solutions are on the table until all the pieces are on land and sampled correctly. The potential for chaos here is just enormous-imagine dropping 7 pebbles into a pond and trying to figure out the interactions between the different wavelets that are created between all of them. Amazing that any kind of forecast can be created with this kind of chaos.

Anyway, if I had to lean toward a solution right now, it would be one that leaned more toward the GFS, but perhaps not entirely so. The kicker out west and progressiveness of the flow all have to be watched, and it makes it hard for me to think that something running up the Apps or inland is likely, unless a major phase occurs and far to the west. We also have some confluence and blockiness to the north, which help us out a lot. Without that, an inland track would be considerably more likely. I think the Euro will eventually bite the bullet and come to the north, at least enough to get significant precip to the coastal plain. The ensembles today certainly laid out the possibility. I won't get excited though until at least tomorrow night when we hopefully work most of the kinks out. And again, in this kind of chaotic pattern, more surprises could be in store. But definitely a possibility of a significant snow event.

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Although there can only be tremendous uncertainty, the way I see it, much more can go wrong with this scenario for snow on the coast and along I-95 than can go right for it. The cold air in place is not very cold. If the storm climbs up the coast, the probability for what little cold air there is to get eroded is high. There are two remotely possible ways we can get significant snow out of this. One, obviously, is the perfect track slowly into the BM. The other might be a track slightly to the west of the perfect track with the storm veering to the right once it reaches our latitude producing a quick changeover to all snow just as precipitation is falling at its heaviest with the storm producing its own cold air via dynamics. But these two ideas seem less likely to me than the track up the coast that would bring rain, or the track out too far to the south and east that would bring the northernmost edge of the precipitation from central NJ to eastern Long Island and on out toward Cape Cod and the islands. Nevertheless, all options at this point, remain open for this potential storm.

WX/PT

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I still think it'll either be a cold rainstorm with maybe a brief changeover to snow at the end or an OTS solution. If the models can agree with the storm being under 48 hours, then maybe we'll talk.

Sadly true does it look like we can pull off some decent winds Atleast?

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The 84 hour NAM setup with the merging southern disturbance trying to hook up with the roating vort over SE Canada is one that histortically I have found is always a very borderline setup for the NYC metro with a SN-PL scenario while most everyone just NW is all snow, sometimes even LGA is all snow. C-S NJ usually is all rain.

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This storm being as borderline as October 29 is right on the money although the airmass is colder than late October both on the surface and aloft, if only slightly. A perfect track with a bombing low could do the trick and we'd end up with very wet, heavy significant snow but like others have said, things are much more likely to go wrong then right.

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The NAM FOUS has it over 50 on Saturday, so it better be a bomb with the perfect track or the I-95 will see rain or nothing. Any precipatition that is too light will not cool dowm the atmosphere enough.

I'm not worried at all about the BL if this thing tracks south, if we're 37/20 or 37/23 early Sun AM we're good.

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I'm not worried at all about the BL if this thing tracks south, if we're 37/20 or 37/23 early Sun AM we're good.

People shouldn't worry so much about the BL if the storm track is excellent and the storm bombs out. We've seen storms that followed temps in the 50s and 60s a day or two before it, especially in March. I think that's how March 1888 happened too.

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People shouldn't worry so much about the BL if the storm track is excellent and the storm bombs out. We've seen storms that followed temps in the 50s and 60s a day or two before it, especially in March. I think that's how March 1888 happened too.

One event, I forget when, featured 70-80 degree temps the day before the storm. Dynamics are everything.

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Although there can only be tremendous uncertainty, the way I see it, much more can go wrong with this scenario for snow on the coast and along I-95 than can go right for it. The cold air in place is not very cold. WX/PT

The NAM FOUS has it over 50 on Saturday, so it better be a bomb with the perfect track or the I-95 will see rain or nothing. Any precipatition that is too light will not cool dowm the atmosphere enough.

Two things: 1/ At hour 84 on the 0z NAM we have a 1024 mb developing anticyclone just NE of Sault Ste Marie...actually a very good spot for a High to be for an East Coast snowstorm...2/ Per the same model run, OKX falls from a 2m temp of 41.5 F with a dewpoint of 36.1F @ hour 78 to a 2m temp of 34.4 F with a dewpoint of 26.1 F @ hour 84. This shows that the cold air from the Ontario centered anticyclone is starting to bleed into the area as it drains down on a north wind...perhaps just enough to keep in cold along the coast; assuming a track of the Low far enough offshore...

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GFS is nowhere near as amped up as the 18z run through 66 hrs. The northern stream energy is definitely way faster this run.

This is gonna look a bit more like a classic BM track. Phasing is occurring a little further east.

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