SBUWX23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 at 48 hr, the northern vort max is over eastern NY while it was over the eastern lakes at 54 hr on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Despite the adjustment with the vortmax over New England, the GFS doesn't seem to want to amplify the height field ahead of the trough axis near the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Despite the adjustment with the vortmax over New England, the GFS doesn't seem to want to amplify the height field ahead of the trough axis near the MS river. That energy is lagging- if that could enter into the base of the trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the vortmas is much weaker at 60 than it was at 54 and is further east. Still looks messy though, but i think its better than previous It's already over Central New England now at 48 hr. The issue still is that the mid level winds are screwed behind that...it's a strong vortmax too. And the phase is still really sloppy. Perfect recipe for a north trend that halts near our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Despite the adjustment with the vortmax over New England, the GFS doesn't seem to want to amplify the height field ahead of the trough axis near the MS river. Going to be a nice hit for dc....if preciep does make it hear...temp issues were grossly over talk about by a few posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's already over Central New England now at 48 hr. The issue still is that the mid level winds are screwed behind that...it's a strong vortmax too. And the phase is still really sloppy. Perfect recipe for a north trend that halts near our latitude. Yeah, that's how it looks to me too. Unless... there's a hidden shortwave in Canada behind the primary northern stream wave that appears near the upper great lakes @48hr. We would need such a phantom wave to phase with the southern stream and create a s/w ridge in Ontario and in the lower Lakes. I think then we'd be in business. And seriously there are always new waves popping up in the flow. But I am still having trouble imagining how this gets much north of CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 H5 chart just screams mid-Atlantic snowstorm. The flow is west to east from Chicago to Boston. And there's nothing to change the trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The good thing about the Nam and GFS is that the northern stream was faster. That's a big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Check out the rgem,looks pretty damn fast. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Check out the rgem,looks pretty damn fast. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_048.jpg I'm assuming you're refering to the northern stream energy, which the GFS and NAM also showed to be faster than previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 To me the 42-54 hour period on the GFS/NAM are where this thing is still alive. If that piece of energy over KS/NE can manage to phase with the main system over AR in that range there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 00z UKMET: Looks like it's a near miss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 21Z Old ETA...it does not get much closer than this. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAEAST_0z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 21Z Old ETA...it does not get much closer than this. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/etaloop.html And THAT is why this storm needs to be watched. A 10 mile shift north on the 21z ETA and C NJ will be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That upper low and strong NW flow associated with it just north of Maine is infuriating. Just won't let it come any further north than 40N, and demolishes any attempt at coming further with dry air. If you look at the 2/6/10 charts, you definitely see some similarities. The associated confluence and the storm themselves are stronger in that case, but you can definitely see in both how the confluence is destroying any chance this has at consolidating into more of a coastal storm feature. Instead, the storm shears out and has to go out to sea. The upper low in this case is a little further east than 2/6/10, but the overall effect seems to be the same. There's going to be one hell of a northern edge to the snow, and people just north are going to go ballistic. I just hope that's not us this time. The DC area looks pretty good as of now for a sizeable event. It would be delicious irony that they could be ahead of us and Boston by Monday for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 And THAT is why this storm needs to be watched. A 10 mile shift north on the 21z ETA and C NJ will be in the game. In the game for a slushy mix of rain and wet snow with accumulations mainly on grassy surfaces if any. Temperatures are still an issue here. Unless you are in a much higher elevation (mountains) or close enough to the storm's center that it can make its own cold air via dynamics, temperatures are an issue with this storm. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 In the game for a slushy mix of rain and wet snow with accumulations mainly on grassy surfaces if any. Temperatures are still an issue here. Unless you are in a much higher elevation (mountains) or close enough to the storm's center that it can make its own cold air via dynamics, temperatures are an issue with this storm. WX/PT Dynamic cooling with heavy precipitation can overcome marginal surface warmth like we saw with the October Snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Highly doubtful with the passage of an arctic front coming through sunday morning. Tds will crash into the teens or so and if you bring in decent precip we will have ageo flow out of the north funneling in the cold air from the high to our NW. In the game for a slushy mix of rain and wet snow with accumulations mainly on grassy surfaces if any. Temperatures are still an issue here. Unless you are in a much higher elevation (mountains) or close enough to the storm's center that it can make its own cold air via dynamics, temperatures are an issue with this storm. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dynamic cooling with heavy precipitation can overcome marginal surface warmth like we saw with the October Snowstorm. Temperatures were an issue then too. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temperatures were an issue then too. WX/PT I was in the low to mid 30's with that storm. The dry slot killed the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temperatures were an issue then too. WX/PT I got six inches of snow from that particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GGEM bumped north but not enough for the area. The northern stream is faster than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The DC area looks pretty good as of now for a sizeable event. It would be delicious irony that they could be ahead of us and Boston by Monday for the season. If you look at the thermal profiles down there on the latest models it sure looks like that probably is going to happen, its possible a few other places such as BWI, ILG, PHL will as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 If you look at the thermal profiles down there on the latest models it sure looks like that probably is going to happen, its possible a few other places such as BWI, ILG, PHL will as well. Good for them. I really hope they get buried. It would be nice if we could get some stuff up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 HPC just updated and they said that their forecast has low confidence. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 HPC just updated and they said that their forecast has low confidence. Jeez. Not surprising when you consider the volatality of the models from run to run. Now with the 00z models so far, the trend has been more north, and faster with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GGEM bumped north but not enough for the area. The northern stream is faster than the 12z run. What is the northern extent of he GGEM's precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What is the northern extent of he GGEM's precip? South Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 South Jersey Going to be one hellacious snow cutoff on this storm somewhere. Still 72 hours to iron these kinks out but the nightmare of 2/6/10 still rings very fresh in my mind. And there very well could be 50 miles between nothing and over 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Going to be one hellacious snow cutoff on this storm somewhere. Still 72 hours to iron these kinks out but the nightmare of 2/6/10 still rings very fresh in my mind. And there very well could be 50 miles between nothing and over 6-8". Again, being on the fringe warrants about as much watching as say if you were in the snow zone, as slight changes in the h5 allignment (as we saw with the northern stream energy speeding up) can change the outcome of the situation significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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