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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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We still have 72 hours for this to correct. Hopefully we see more northern stream interaction on future runs, plus a quicker retreat of the northern branch.

Unlike 2/6/10, there is no strong -NAO so there is room for the 50/50 low to move. If you remember, this is what happened 12/19/09, models were barely showing snow getting into NYC due to the confluence caused by the 50/50, as we got closer (I think around 60 hrs?) models started to reduce the strength of the 50/50

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Sizeable snow gets up to Atlantic City, decent snow into Philly. DC gets crushed, probably a foot of snow around the area. North of Sandy Hook high and dry. Still a very good first step here.

If I've learned anything from the past years of model analysis, is that it's never a good thing to be in the bullseye on the NAM 72 hours out. Weenie statement, but just saying.

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I don't think the s/w in the northern steam is going to get out of the way fast enough. It's so obviously blocking height rises in NY and NE toward the end of the NAMs run. And even though the vortmax gets out of the way, the flow in its wake is poorly aligned. I just hope it's being poorly modeled and that the wave elongates and maybe breaks into distinct pieces, one of which drops into the backside of the southern stream. Because as currently modeled, I don't think there's too much room for northward movement. But I think PHL is actually in good shape and even NYC has a decent chance with a slight northward adjustment. But for those just to the north of NYC or in ski country, these types of runs are very frustrating.

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Unlike 2/6/10, there is no strong -NAO so there is room for the 50/50 low to move. If you remember, this is what happened 12/19/09, models were barely showing snow getting into NYC due to the confluence caused by the 50/50, as we got closer (I think around 60 hrs?) models started to reduce the strength of the 50/50

you bring up the a good point models tend to over due some features with some of these large east coast storms like 12/19/09 where the 50/50 was not as strong as modeled earlier. were still 72 hours out to see if this turns north. dont be surprised if this does trend north, remember how many storms actually modeled to be south 80+hours stayed that way instead of coming north. not very many at all. this is far from over.

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That was a huge change on the NAM as early as 30 hrs....much faster and more progressive with the northern stream feature which was really screwing things earlier. That feature is huge as immediately following it's pass through or north of the area...you get nw winds at the mid levels which will squash any chance of precip getting here.

But as myself and several others mentioned earlier this morning, the trend this entire winter has been faster and less amplified with northern stream troughs...so that could be our last moment hope.

That being said it's still gonna take another big bump like this to get us meaningful precipitation and that is really moving into unmarked territory and is highly unlikely.

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We have to hope it keeps being modeled to shift further and further north and faster, the northern stream feature, I honestly dont think its out of the realm of possibilities given that we dont have a real -NAO.

Despite the changes, look how northwesterly the flow is over the Great Lakes and New England at 57 hours. We're still going to have real trouble getting this thing up here.

http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f57.gif

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Despite the changes, look how northwesterly the flow is over the Great Lakes and New England at 57 hours. We're still going to have real trouble getting this thing up here.

http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f57.gif

The 50/50 low is too far south at this time. And chances are that we aren't going to get the southern vort to slow down much more, with trough coming into the West coast.

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This is not going to be a February 6, 2010 repeat, there is no big moisture inflow like a Nino would do, no one is getting 20-30", but there is a confluence issue with us.

That's what I meant, obviously nobody will get 20-30", but several places could pick up a foot or more because there is actually a significant amount of moisture with this one. The confluence issue could benefit places that were hammered in Feb 5-6, 2010 while we stay high and dry so that's the similarity.

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Looking closer at H5 i dont like the setup very much at all. Blocking over the DS pushes down a strong area of confluence over SE canada that really forces the vort out due east rather than coming up north like most KU's we get.

If you look at the charts, they're is an annoying piece of energy diving down from the ridge over the central US that kicks the vort OTS and adds to the already strong confluence. If we want a northerly trend, we need the confluence to weaken and if we want that to happen, that vort must weaken as well

Just my .02

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Unlike 2/6/10, there is no strong -NAO so there is room for the 50/50 low to move. If you remember, this is what happened 12/19/09, models were barely showing snow getting into NYC due to the confluence caused by the 50/50, as we got closer (I think around 60 hrs?) models started to reduce the strength of the 50/50

12/19/09 though had the ridge out west, there is no doubt that if we had a ridge out west or that system crashing into the PAC NW was later this thing would be coming up the coast. This system does bear some similarity to the 12/09 storm as well as 3/4/81 and 2/11/83 as a few others mentioned in that the southern vort wouldn't have any true northern stream interaction and would need to amplify by itself, the problem is the ridging out west aided the 12/09 and 1983 storms and in the 81 storm the -NAO and the vort rotating SW in Canada served to increase heights off the E Coast. You can add 3/81 to the list with 12/19/95 of 2 decent events that occurred with no ridge out west, but they were aided by a -NAO and a SW rotating vortex over S Canada.

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faster and the vortmax that was over michigan on the 18z run is now further NE

It's already over Central New England now at 48 hr.

The issue still is that the mid level winds are screwed behind that...it's a strong vortmax too. And the phase is still really sloppy.

Perfect recipe for a north trend that halts near our latitude.

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