wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Since no one else will bite, I'll do it. 21z SREFs are the furthest south they have been. No improvement at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The GFS went 3-for-4 yesterday with the coastal solution. That, IMO was enough to consider that track as an option. The UKMET also partially hinted at this but not nearly as much as the GFS had it. Unfortunately, models loose solutions sometimes, it's just the way it works. the piece of sh-t GFS was OWNED by the Euro yet again...OWNED. Not sure how long you have been practicing modelology...but until it shows up consistently on the Euro its not happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 this is not baseless optimism. as i just posted there are still players that have to be correctly accounted for and with the models have done this year which all of you know how they have we may not a true solution till saturday when the northern stream is properly sampled. im not baselessly optimistic if it was hopeless id say it is. a very difficult forecast right now and it could as easily curl up the coast as it could slide out sea if something on the models change. im not the only one thinking this as well, this storm is not set in stone even remotely close yet. say it...dont be shy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not sure what your definition of "real threat" is, but if it includes significant snow accumulation, this storm was and still is the most "real" threat of the winter thus far. The meteorological reasons for this threat/period being legit have been covered countless times in the past couple weeks on this forum (among them being the MJO propagation through phase 8 and its direct impact on an enhanced STJ, along with the 50/50 vortex / associated confluence in sern Canada). No the pattern isn't great by any means, but that's not to say we can't get a snow event in a so-so regime. this is barely a "real threat" for DC.... FYI...i dont believe its "STJ"....its a La Nina, no subtropical jet...just southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Banter thread. honestly, 99% of snow88's post should be in the banter thread...and 90% of posts in the NYC subforum, not by a red tagger or earthlight, belong in the banter thread...usually its just random (and HORRIBLE) model reading with no met theory.... go to the NE thread....plenty of friendly "banter" and loads of GREAT, EDUCATIONAL commentary....funny how this subforum complains about banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 this is barely a "real threat" for DC.... FYI...i dont believe its "STJ"....its a La Nina, no subtropical jet...just southern stream energy. Its not a "true" STJ, that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I wish I knew what the NAM is trying to do... 0z NAM at hour 33 is noticeably different from the 18z run at hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think you guys are confusing "weak STJ" with "no STJ". There's an STJ during La Nina. Its just much weaker than during El Nino, typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0z NAM hanging back a smaller s/w across SD/NE as the main trof moves across the nrn Lakes region. Quite different from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think you guys are confusing "weak STJ" with "no STJ". There's an STJ during La Nina. Its just much weaker than during El Nino, typically. Yes, I agree. What we're seeing this weekend is a temporary "enhancement" of the sub tropical stream, as evidenced by the very strong upper jet roaring across the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 don't look now but theNAM wants to turn this thing further north already. major differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Major changes thru hr 42, the entire system is more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That one shortwave behind the southern vort is way stronger at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That one shortwave behind the southern vort is way stronger at 42. Looks like a part of the northern stream that breaks off and might try a phase with our storm. Hopefully it's not totally out to lunch and other models have it. 21z ETA also looked pretty far north, but stopped the appreciable snows near Philly. Maybe it could be the start of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 stronger at 45hr, looks much better. 1004mb entering LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This could be a huge trend tonight with that one vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow. Much faster with northern stream. 18z NAM looks like a totally different model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like a part of the northern stream that breaks off and might try a phase with our storm. Hopefully it's not totally out to lunch and other models have it. 21z ETA also looked pretty far north, but stopped the appreciable snows near Philly. Maybe it could be the start of something. Def trying at 48hr..this solution is going to be interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The vort in the great lakes is also clearing out rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NAM nearly goes neg. tilt at 48 HR. Eek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow. Much faster with northern stream. 18z NAM looks like a totally different model! The northern stream being faster helps, but so does that piece that seems to get left behind which is trying to dive into the storm and might try to phase over the upper plains. The southern stream wave again looks quite potent. Those two together could mean a very healthy solution for this area. Hopefully this is something the model sampled and gets picked up on the rest of the suite later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NAM nearly goes neg. tilt at 48 HR. Eek. In a normal setup, we'd be congrats-ing Detroit already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 def phasing with the "wild card" vort at 54hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0z NAM is a good run for Ar and probably Wv, and Va, but it's still primarily a southern stream storm. Initially the primary low will be fairly far west due to the sharpness of the s/w. But as that dampens out, it should transfer quickly to a coastal low and slide ENE. Maybe it gets up into the mid-Atlantic, but it's going to have a hard time coming up the coast without more of the northern stream dropping into the backside of the trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0z NAM is a good run for Ar and probably Wv, and Va, but it's still primarily a southern stream storm. Initially the primary low will be fairly far west due to the sharpness of the s/w. But as that dampens out, it should transfer quickly to a coastal low and slide ENE. Maybe it gets up into the mid-Atlantic, but it's going to have a hard time coming up the coast without more of the northern stream dropping into the backside of the trof. Could still be a good outcome for us as the piece of the northern stream phases in, and the confluence starts to slacken to our north. Definite steps in the right direction here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hr 69 dc crushed and Delmarva....light qpf up to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Could still be a good outcome for us as the piece of the northern stream phases in, and the confluence starts to slacken to our north. Definite steps in the right direction here. We might get brushed toward the end of the run, but I don't really like it north of the mason-dixon line. for parts of the south and southern mid-atlantic, it could be a really great run. It could be moving in a direction that could ultimately lead to snow for us, but I'd really prefer to see a lot more northern stream interaction, esp with the main polar s/w that traverses the Great Lakes on Saturday. That is the source of wave interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Snow grazes Long Island by hr 72 but looks like the low is getting sheared out. The phase looks like it happens a little too late. Heavy snow I-195 and south. Pretty much an exact 2/6/10 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is a few steps away @5H from getting good snows into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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