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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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The GFS went 3-for-4 yesterday with the coastal solution. That, IMO was enough to consider that track as an option. The UKMET also partially hinted at this but not nearly as much as the GFS had it. Unfortunately, models loose solutions sometimes, it's just the way it works.

the piece of sh-t GFS was OWNED by the Euro yet again...OWNED. Not sure how long you have been practicing modelology...but until it shows up consistently on the Euro its not happening...

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this is not baseless optimism. as i just posted there are still players that have to be correctly accounted for and with the models have done this year which all of you know how they have we may not a true solution till saturday when the northern stream is properly sampled. im not baselessly optimistic if it was hopeless id say it is. a very difficult forecast right now and it could as easily curl up the coast as it could slide out sea if something on the models change. im not the only one thinking this as well, this storm is not set in stone even remotely close yet.

say it...dont be shy.

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Not sure what your definition of "real threat" is, but if it includes significant snow accumulation, this storm was and still is the most "real" threat of the winter thus far. The meteorological reasons for this threat/period being legit have been covered countless times in the past couple weeks on this forum (among them being the MJO propagation through phase 8 and its direct impact on an enhanced STJ, along with the 50/50 vortex / associated confluence in sern Canada). No the pattern isn't great by any means, but that's not to say we can't get a snow event in a so-so regime.

this is barely a "real threat" for DC....

FYI...i dont believe its "STJ"....its a La Nina, no subtropical jet...just southern stream energy.

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Banter thread.

honestly, 99% of snow88's post should be in the banter thread...and 90% of posts in the NYC subforum, not by a red tagger or earthlight, belong in the banter thread...usually its just random (and HORRIBLE) model reading with no met theory....

go to the NE thread....plenty of friendly "banter" and loads of GREAT, EDUCATIONAL commentary....funny how this subforum complains about banter...

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I think you guys are confusing "weak STJ" with "no STJ". There's an STJ during La Nina. Its just much weaker than during El Nino, typically.

Yes, I agree. What we're seeing this weekend is a temporary "enhancement" of the sub tropical stream, as evidenced by the very strong upper jet roaring across the South.

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That one shortwave behind the southern vort is way stronger at 42.

Looks like a part of the northern stream that breaks off and might try a phase with our storm. Hopefully it's not totally out to lunch and other models have it. 21z ETA also looked pretty far north, but stopped the appreciable snows near Philly. Maybe it could be the start of something.

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Looks like a part of the northern stream that breaks off and might try a phase with our storm. Hopefully it's not totally out to lunch and other models have it. 21z ETA also looked pretty far north, but stopped the appreciable snows near Philly. Maybe it could be the start of something.

Def trying at 48hr..this solution is going to be interesting for sure.

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Wow. Much faster with northern stream. 18z NAM looks like a totally different model!

The northern stream being faster helps, but so does that piece that seems to get left behind which is trying to dive into the storm and might try to phase over the upper plains. The southern stream wave again looks quite potent. Those two together could mean a very healthy solution for this area. Hopefully this is something the model sampled and gets picked up on the rest of the suite later.

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0z NAM is a good run for Ar and probably Wv, and Va, but it's still primarily a southern stream storm. Initially the primary low will be fairly far west due to the sharpness of the s/w. But as that dampens out, it should transfer quickly to a coastal low and slide ENE. Maybe it gets up into the mid-Atlantic, but it's going to have a hard time coming up the coast without more of the northern stream dropping into the backside of the trof.

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0z NAM is a good run for Ar and probably Wv, and Va, but it's still primarily a southern stream storm. Initially the primary low will be fairly far west due to the sharpness of the s/w. But as that dampens out, it should transfer quickly to a coastal low and slide ENE. Maybe it gets up into the mid-Atlantic, but it's going to have a hard time coming up the coast without more of the northern stream dropping into the backside of the trof.

Could still be a good outcome for us as the piece of the northern stream phases in, and the confluence starts to slacken to our north. Definite steps in the right direction here.

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Could still be a good outcome for us as the piece of the northern stream phases in, and the confluence starts to slacken to our north. Definite steps in the right direction here.

We might get brushed toward the end of the run, but I don't really like it north of the mason-dixon line. for parts of the south and southern mid-atlantic, it could be a really great run.

It could be moving in a direction that could ultimately lead to snow for us, but I'd really prefer to see a lot more northern stream interaction, esp with the main polar s/w that traverses the Great Lakes on Saturday. That is the source of wave interference.

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