LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's a bit south of 12z, but still clearly better than the NAM. I'll take it given that the northern stream seemed to be a little quicker. Small steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The southern stream wave almost survives long enough to bring some light/moderate precipitation - probably snow - to ny/nj. Depending on the exact orientation of the height field and the surface low, I think the system could potentially get some snow to the area without much phasing with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It looked like the confluence was lifting out as the storm was coming up the coast. How come the GFS went towards the coast instead of going north? Becuase there is nothing to bring it up the coast. There is no phase with the northern stream so the flow remains w-e. In this progressive pattern any SW impulse is going to get shunted east, and in a hurry. We don't even have strong ridging out west which could give the SW and fighting chance by allowing it to amplify and allow hgts on east coast to rise and the trough to take on more of a tilt. Right now the trough will remain pretty broad and flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I love everything about this run. Stronger southern vort, faster northern stream. TBH, to me, if this played out as depicted at H5, we would get a snowstorm up here. Love this run. Also, wanted to say thanks for tornadojay for his analysis today. Very level-headed. There are so many variables to work out, still, just 3 days away. Models will continue jogging around until those play out. No way, that depiction at H5 is terrible if you want to see a snowstorm up here. Everyone needs to get past this perception of getting the northern stream shortwave out of the way. That is pure crap, we need some piece of energy from the northern stream to phase, or else this system will not make it up to our area. If the northern stream remains fast flow from w-e we have no shot, the storm will get shunted east. This is especially true with the progressive nature of the pattern and weak ridging. That run was putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The only reason I keep any hope alive, is because there are sooo many seperate pieces of energy associated with the northern stream. We just need one to dive south and tug the storm north, so that we can feel the impacts. But even then with the features present, I am not enthused. We are grasping at straws here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No way, that depiction at H5 is terrible if you want to see a snowstorm up here. Everyone needs to get past this perception of getting the northern stream shortwave out of the way. That is pure crap, we need some piece of energy from the northern stream to phase, or else this system will not make it up to our area. If the northern stream remains fast flow from w-e we have no shot, the storm will get shunted east. This is especially true with the progressive nature of the pattern and weak ridging. That run was putrid. The problem seemed to be that the southern wave was a little weaker this run. We need it to be very powerful in order to have a shot against the confluence. Even though the northern stream wave was a little faster, the confluence was too powerful and it ended up shearing the storm out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 its really getting annoying already with these posts of its over or its not looking good at all or face it its not happening. this storm is nowhere near being accurately forecasted yet. the northern stream shortwave has to get to the U.S. or atleast a better sampled area so we may get a better idea. tommorow especially 12z runs till saturday is going to be telling. there will be changes and it is very close to delivering for us. lots of pieces to be sorted still......relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The problem seemed to be that the southern wave was a little weaker this run. We need it to be very powerful in order to have a shot against the confluence. Even though the northern stream wave was a little faster, the confluence was too powerful and it ended up shearing the storm out to sea. I agree the southern waves can sometimes do it on their own, but not in this setup. In order for that to be possible I would need to see a pattern that would allow the southern wave to slow and significantly amplify as to allow the hgts to rise ahead of it and allow a better orientation of the trough. That is not going to happen in this pattern, the ridging to the west of the sw is moderate at best. The pattern is progressive and will keep this thing moving. The confluence will be irrelevant if we get the northern stream component (at least one of the several impulses modeled) to at minimal partially phase with the sw. This is the best shot we have of bringing this low north before it is pushed east by the deamplifying rigdge and progressive flow. The reason those big storms were shown on the gfs was because it allows a phase with the northern stream, without any resmeblance of that, this is NOT the type of pattern where you can get a storm up to our latitude. We aren't fortunate right now to be benefitting from a huge amplified PNA ridge that we saw at other points this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 its really getting annoying already with these posts of its over or its not looking good at all or face it its not happening. this storm is nowhere near being accurately forecasted yet. the northern stream shortwave has to get to the U.S. or atleast a better sampled area so we may get a better idea. tommorow especially 12z runs till saturday is going to be telling. there will be changes and it is very close to delivering for us. lots of pieces to be sorted still......relax I posted nothing but pure reasoning to support my claims. Just because I present an opposing viewpoint to yours does not mean mine deserves less credit. Sorry I just call it as I see it. I have also stated numerous times what would need to change for this to work out. Trust me I am the biggest snow lover and will find anyway to support a snowy scenario, unless I just don't see it. If you don't believe me, ask Earthlight or anyone who knows my posts from previous winters. I was even one of the few last year to say we would see big snows from the Jan 26 event, and that was because of the favorable PNA ridge I felt that way. It is a bad sign if I am concerned with a setup or not optimisitc, and for all the reasons I have stated, this setup needs big improvement quick if we are going to benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I posted nothing but pure reasoning to support my claims. Just because I present an opposing viewpoint to yours does not mean mine deserves less credit. Sorry I just call it as I see it. I have also stated numerous times what would need to change for this to work out. Trust me I am the biggest snow lover and will find anyway to support a snowy scenario, unless I just don't see it. If you don't believe me, ask Earthlight or anyone who knows my posts from previous winters. I was even one of the few last year to say we would see big snows from the Jan 26 event, and that was because of the favorable PNA ridge I felt that way. It is a bad sign if I am concerned with a setup or not optimisitc, and for all the reasons I have stated, this setup needs big improvement quick if we are going to benefit. i apologize if it came off as obnoxious im just saying till all players are on the field its not set in stone and changes are going to occur to what were seeing now. there are alot of other posters and mets saying this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The weaker H5 depiction of the southern stream short wave on the 18z GFS versus its 12z run makes sense given what's going on at 200mb (per the model). We still have a very impressive jet streak at H2 but the 18z rendition is slightly weaker and less expansive (northward), probably accounting for the less potent portrayal at H5. Personally, I think the power of this jet at H2 supports a southern stream vort more intense than both the 18z and 12z GFS runs, but we'll see what happens. 12z GFS valid Sat afternoon. Note the zone of 150+kts and area of 130+ up further north. 18z GFS valid the same time. I doubt this depiction is correct just because the exact strengths of both the nern stream s/w's and the southern vort will be almost impossible to nail down until we're virtually on top of the event. I think this is going to be one of those situations where we're seeing slight model corrections up until 12-24 hours prior. Again, in my opinion, the intensity of the upper jet supports an H5 (and sfc) reflection of a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The weaker H5 depiction of the southern stream short wave on the 18z GFS versus its 12z run makes sense given what's going on at 200mb (per the model). We still have a very impressive jet streak at H2 but the 18z rendition is slightly weaker and less expansive (northward), probably accounting for the less potent portrayal at H5. Personally, I think the power of this jet at H2 supports a southern stream vort more intense than both the 18z and 12z GFS runs, but we'll see what happens. 12z GFS valid Sat afternoon. Note the zone of 150+kts and area of 130+ up further north. 18z GFS valid the same time. I doubt this depiction is correct just because the exact strengths of both the nern stream s/w's and the southern vort will be almost impossible to nail down until we're virtually on top of the event. I think this is going to be one of those situations where we're seeing slight model corrections up until 12-24 hours prior. Again, in my opinion, the intensity of the upper jet supports an H5 (and sfc) reflection of a stronger system. i still think if its gonna correct its gonna correct north and we'll get into the snow. we've seen that alot with our big storms, dont know if that applies here but its sooo close to being big for us isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i still think if its gonna correct its gonna correct north and we'll get into the snow. we've seen that alot with our big storms, dont know if that applies here but its sooo close to being big for us isotherm. All we really need are slight corretions in the intensity of the southern vort and we'd see precip up to our area. I think it's starting to become apparent that a full phase is off the table (probably safe to say) and the chances of partial phasing w/ the northern stream are decreasing. However, a stronger southern vort would compensate for the lack of phasing and still have the potential to produce a significant event for the northern mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i apologize if it came off as obnoxious im just saying till all players are on the field its not set in stone and changes are going to occur to what were seeing now. there are alot of other posters and mets saying this too Fair enough but I have not completely dismissed the idea of a more favorable solution occurring, I have just elaborated on why it is unlikely based on the current depiction. And I also have gone out of my way to provide reasons and ways it can improve and what we need to look for if positive changes are going to occcur. I felt as though I was providing valuable insight, sorry if my posts have come off as dismissive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 its really getting annoying already with these posts of its over or its not looking good at all or face it its not happening. this storm is nowhere near being accurately forecasted yet. the northern stream shortwave has to get to the U.S. or atleast a better sampled area so we may get a better idea. tommorow especially 12z runs till saturday is going to be telling. there will be changes and it is very close to delivering for us. lots of pieces to be sorted still......relax EVERY model trended south 48 hrs out...never a good sign. Even if it comes further north, we're fringed and with no cold air, we'd get light rain or non accumulating light snow like last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 gfs ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z GEFS at 60 loaded at 1003 mb in W AL to 84 997 mb 200 to 300 miles offshore east of Norfolk... def south of OP gfs ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The problem seemed to be that the southern wave was a little weaker this run. We need it to be very powerful in order to have a shot against the confluence. Even though the northern stream wave was a little faster, the confluence was too powerful and it ended up shearing the storm out to sea. A strong wave in the Pacific/subtropical jet can do the job on its own, but it really helps to have energy diving down into the upstream side of the trof. Right now we have most of the energy on the downstream side, and therefore a dampening wave in the south. I would much rather have a little bit more northern stream interaction than a much stronger southern stream wave. A stronger wave might benefit the lower Ohio Valley through Virginia, but it will ultimately weaken and the developing surface low will reform off the SE coast and slip eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro was much better with the speed of the northern jet which made all the difference, without a phase we loose the big storm and the big precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks Tim, time to move on, and enjoy from afar, hoping our friends down south can get a great snowstorm. We will get em' next winter. We have been blessed with incredible winters over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Was checking out analogs from the GFS.. I'm not really crazy about any of them, but this 3/4/81 is about as close as I can find.. which was probably a non-event here.. Deposited 10.4" of snow at the cooperative station Westbury in Nassau County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Even with boxing day...although that storm had every model out to sea until 48 hours of the event, there were plenty of baby steps that were being taken on the models in the T-96 to T-60 period. We are clearly regressing here. I do think we'll eventually see this bump back north a bit, as I do think the northern stream will eventually trend further north and faster, but I don't think it will be further north and fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Even with boxing day...although that storm had every model out to sea until 48 hours of the event, there were plenty of baby steps that were being taken on the models in the T-96 to T-60 period. We are clearly regressing here. I do think we'll eventually see this bump back north a bit, as I do think the northern stream will eventually trend further north and faster, but I don't think it will be further north and fast enough. yea well very rarely do we actually see a storm modelled 5 days out as passing to the south actually pass to the south without having some kind of impact on us. just something to keep in mind here. its a very tricky forecast these next two days, one that may have a wild card thrown in there as well. but i really wanna see that shortwave in canada get alot closer to really see what this storm does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Deposited 10.4" of snow at the cooperative station Westbury in Nassau County... 8.6" in Central Park 3/5 and 7.4" southern Brooklyn...I doubt we get as cold as that storm was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 its really getting annoying already with these posts of its over or its not looking good at all or face it its not happening. this storm is nowhere near being accurately forecasted yet. the northern stream shortwave has to get to the U.S. or atleast a better sampled area so we may get a better idea. tommorow especially 12z runs till saturday is going to be telling. there will be changes and it is very close to delivering for us. lots of pieces to be sorted still......relax what annoying is the baseless optimism....why do people have such a hard time with the current reality? this was NEVER a real threat...a few GFS runs that hard very little support does not make for a real threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 what annoying is the baseless optimism....why do people have such a hard time with the current reality? this was NEVER a real threat...a few GFS runs that hard very little support does not make for a real threat... The GFS went 3-for-4 yesterday with the coastal solution. That, IMO was enough to consider that track as an option. The UKMET also partially hinted at this but not nearly as much as the GFS had it. Unfortunately, models loose solutions sometimes, it's just the way it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 this is not baseless optimism. as i just posted there are still players that have to be correctly accounted for and with the models have done this year which all of you know how they have we may not a true solution till saturday when the northern stream is properly sampled. im not baselessly optimistic if it was hopeless id say it is. a very difficult forecast right now and it could as easily curl up the coast as it could slide out sea if something on the models change. im not the only one thinking this as well, this storm is not set in stone even remotely close yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 what annoying is the baseless optimism....why do people have such a hard time with the current reality? this was NEVER a real threat...a few GFS runs that hard very little support does not make for a real threat... Not sure what your definition of "real threat" is, but if it includes significant snow accumulation, this storm was and still is the most "real" threat of the winter thus far. The meteorological reasons for this threat/period being legit have been covered countless times in the past couple weeks on this forum (among them being the MJO propagation through phase 8 and its direct impact on an enhanced STJ, along with the 50/50 vortex / associated confluence in sern Canada). No the pattern isn't great by any means, but that's not to say we can't get a snow event in a so-so regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not sure what your definition of "real threat" is, but if it includes significant snow accumulation, this storm was and still is the most "real" threat of the winter thus far. The meteorological reasons for this threat/period being legit have been covered countless times in the past couple weeks on this forum (among them being the MJO propagation through phase 8 and its direct impact on an enhanced STJ, along with the 50/50 vortex / associated confluence in sern Canada). No the pattern isn't great by any means, but that's not to say we can't get a snow event in a so-so regime. isotherm the pattern does argue for this to be a midatlantic special but it would not take much for this to be a big storm for alot of us on the eastern seaboard. this threat is still what it was when we first saw it. models need to take in all the data friday afternoon and saturday when the canadian wave get sampled correctly. we've seen this many times and you know too our big storms were always surpressed till 48 hours or less out. this may be different but thats one rule that cant be argued with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Excellent first post. Welcome. Thank you ive been lurking forever, but i think its time to post. Hopefully i can bring some good juju in time for this potential storm. My thoughts stand the same as in my first post however. Anxious to see 0z data tonight for any trends (H5 opposed to surface), as 18z runs are generally "meh" as far as fresh data goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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