PB GFI Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd rather have the northern stream speed up and get out of the way, as opposed to a full phase. That would likely bring a too-warm solution and rain (and now is very unlikely). A faster northern stream makes this a southern stream feature only, and while it would be a weaker system it would still be a very wet one and deliver copious amounts of snow. It also wouldn't cut like a phased system would and it would remain SE of here. Seriously though, I'd like to see when the last time was that we had a 1000mb or lower system over N AL or MS be a complete miss here. Bad postion western trough positioning and Confluence can do that to you . Its been a progressive pattern all year , have a day or so to see if its a miss . will wait for that though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As others have said, its the shortwave dropping down through the lakes that ruins the entire party, missing the phase and then helping to lower heights along the coast. This however is not a reason to write it off, we have seen these things change dramatically even inside 48 hours. I would say we won't know for sure until about the 12z runs on Saturday. That gives us another 8 model runs or so to get this straightened out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 HPC Experimental Snowfall graph for Sunday for four inches of snow or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if it continues to at least partially phase over parts of the mid-west, I think it may, at the least, hold status quo. The additonal amplification is certainly what is tending to drive this model a bit further north. The chances right now of a closed off system at 500 are probably decreasing though... even, at best, the GFS closes it off well offshore... which in turn is telling you that it would be a fairly progressive system that probably wouldn't slow down.. We've seen stranger things happen though.. This thing could turn on a dime if things play out right.. I wouldn't want to discount any possible scenario at this point. I think the one thing we can say with a fairly high certainty is that temps could be a problem for some areas unless this thing turns into a bomb and can drag some colder air down at the lowest levels. I would like to see the Euro Ensemble mean come in furtherNorth than the OP for me not to believe the GFS has the wrong idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As others have said, its the shortwave dropping down through the lakes that ruins the entire party, missing the phase and then helping to lower heights along the coast. This however is not a reason to write it off, we have seen these things change dramatically even inside 48 hours. I would say we won't know for sure until about the 12z runs on Saturday. That gives us another 8 model runs or so to get this straightened out. Agree with all of that except your avatar lol, plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 While it certainly appears that though there may be some sort of "trend" developing, there are actually numerous depictions of the 500mb level which are producing differentiating outcomes that seem to be the same. The northern stream is the killer(or hero) in this case, and with it being absolutely loaded with pieces of energy it would be hard to accept any given modeled solution at this point until that stream can be better sampled once some features start getting on land and closer in timespace. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F16%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=054&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F16%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=054&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M The first glance at these maps may not look vastly different, however there are discernable differences between the GFS/NAM at 54 hours in regards to 500mb pattern. First on the GFS... It is sharper with a piece of energy spinning along the base of the polar vortex, this piece of energy may be what is forcing the first piece diving into Michigan to dive in further and essentially force the phase earlier(or at least partially). Also, the energy in the PAC NW is alot stronger at 54 then on the NAM, allowing it to pump up the ridge in the west ever so slightly more then on the NAM (however, on the GFS, the piece around the PV in addition to the PAC NW make for the ridge axis to be backed west by a couple hundred miles). On the NAM, the feature in the PAC NW is weaker, and the ridge axis is further east, since the ridge isnt as "pumped up" it appears as though the s/w coming into Michigan is not forced to dive as far south as on the GFS. These are miniscule differences in the 500mb pattern as we are talking about placements of features merely 50-200 miles at most apart on the models, however, the surface depictions downstream result in MUCH variance in possible outcomes. At this point, it is not wise to go against the trend of the entire winter which is to move that shortwave coming into Michigan along quicker, this in turn leads to a more NAM like solution. What is interesting about this though, is that the NAM(as well as others) are actually "trending" towards a stronger southern stream solution. This MAY indeed work out better for our area, as the confluence diminishes across the northeast with the passing of the energy, as well as raises the heights along the coast thus creating a more north track. As is right now on the models, the timing appears as if the northern stream is too fast for a phase, but slow enough that it sticks around to suppress the storm south. However, instead of monitoring surface depiction trends right now, I'd much more closely be watching the evolution of the northern stream, as well as the eventual strength of the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Srefs out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Srefs out yet? 2:40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z JMA looks good http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z JMA looks good http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_96HR.gif even that is a bit south of its previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z JMA looks good http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif That is pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That track is well south of the benchmark 12z JMA looks good http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z JMA looks good http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_96HR.gif I weight that model about what I weight the Nogaps. It's not in the realm of the big 4 or 5 like the Euro, GFS, UKMET, Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That track is well south of the benchmark It still brings .50 QPF to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I weight that model about what I weight the Nogaps. It's not in the realm of the big 4 or 5 like the Euro, GFS, UKMET, Canadian. JMA ranks better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JMA track isn't good for us at all.... the precip is overdone and too wide spread... thats snow shower track for here. 500 map looks good on the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Guys how do you know the northern stream is being sampled the proper way. it hasnt even made it into the U.S. And we remember what happen with boxing day debacle when it finally did get sampled the proper way. The correct solution or there abouts will most likely be friday night or saturday when tha shortwave is in U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JMA track isn't good for us at all.... the precip is overdone and too wide spread... thats snow shower track for here. There seems to be a lot of moisture on the JMA. It's possible that the precip reaches the NYC area with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think everyone needs to be very careful about treating the surface the same as H5. Some trends are not visible at the surface, and at H5, the trend on every single model today has been positive - faster northern stream and stronger southern vort. Give it time to evolve. Sure, the surface may never catch up...in fact, H5 may ultimately be playing catchup to the surface....but we've all seen this before. Models are still VERY close to giving us at least a moderate snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting GSP AFD from NC says the 12Z Euro initialized poorly so it should be taken with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GSP AFD from NC says the 12Z Euro initialized poorly so it should be taken with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting So did the 12z GFS run from 3 days before 12/26/10 that gave us a blizzard. Too bad that one was such a whiff. People make too much out of small initialization errors, and even with that other models seem to be going south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I didn't see HPC note any of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 15z SREFs are farther north with the precipitation shield. There were a few big hits on the 09z run...I would think there must be a few more this run. Surface low is still pretty far east but there's a good spread still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From GSP ...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING SYSTEM FOR SAT-SUN WITH THE SLOWER NAM POORLY INITIALZED AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. THE 12 ECMWF ALSO INITLIALZED POORLY SO IT WAS NOT USED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 15z SREFs are farther north with the precipitation shield. There were a few big hits on the 09z run...I would think there must be a few more this run. Surface low is still pretty far east but there's a good spread still. We're in the top of the 9th..I think if things are going to shift at all, we'll start seeing it between 18z and 00z tonight. Hopefully we can see subtle shifts starting with the euro ensembles and 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So did the 12z GFS run from 3 days before 12/26/10 that gave us a blizzard. Too bad that one was such a whiff. People make too much out of small initialization errors, and even with that other models seem to be going south as well. Even with other guidance going south, it's highly unlikely we've reached the final solution at this time frame, given the highly complex nature of this synoptic evolution. I wouldn't be concerned even if the GFS went south tonight; we can see pretty sharp corrections w/ only 1 or 2 runs 24-48 hours prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 .25" line through NYC now on the new srefs. The 9z run barely had the .10" line on NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Definitely a pretty good amount of northward spread on the SREFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lots of spread still, so I am sure a certain grouping of SREF members are helping to increase the precip. .25" line through NYC now on the new srefs. The 9z run barely had the .10" line on NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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