tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I was thinking earlier about how every northern stream vort this year has moved out faster as we got closer to the event. Remember all the times the PV or really low heights were modeled to drop in for a few days, only to trend quicker at 48 hrs. It would be pretty comical if this were the one time it actually dropped down just enough to suppress the storm. last weekend was a perfect example... We were talking about high temps potentially in the 20-25 range at one point with 850's near -22 to -24... the eventual result.... we had slightly below normal temps.. not only that, the core of the cold air was originally forecasted to come in Monday and it ended up coming in on Sunday. We have not realized some forecasted arctic blasts this winter.... it's a progressive pattern this winter.. everything is bookin' in and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's apparently snowing pretty good up in the Hudson Highlands and probably extreme northern NJ. I cannot confirm but a second hand account and a few obs support it. Flakes down to sea level and light accumulations in the hill towns. Forecasts this morning called for primarily rain. That's what a burst of moderate precip can do in a marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's apparently snowing pretty good up in the Hudson Highlands and probably extreme northern NJ. I cannot confirm but a second hand account and a few obs support it. Flakes down to sea level and light accumulations in the hill towns. Forecasts this morning called for primarily rain. That's what a burst of moderate precip can do in a marginal airmass. I had a short duration rain/snow mix for about 20 minutes.. I'm 20 miles north of the GW bridge... that's all I'll mention about it here... i was putting obs in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's apparently snowing pretty good up in the Hudson Highlands and probably extreme northern NJ. I cannot confirm but a second hand account and a few obs support it. Flakes down to sea level and light accumulations in the hill towns. Forecasts this morning called for primarily rain. That's what a burst of moderate precip can do in a marginal airmass. Banter Thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32341-february-banter-thread/unread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro's solution does have a bit of a negative tilt to it.. looks like it would at least allow for a low pressure that would be slowly intensifying.. at the least.. but like most of the other models.. not phased with the northern stream and not particularly amplified in nature.. but a fairly tight wavelength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I dont know if its a matter of slower timing factoring in, but the new euro at 78 hrs doesnt even have precip into DC where as 90 hrs it was snowing through philly/south jersey...This run should be a miss, though I havent peaked at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro's solution does have a bit of a negative tilt to it.. looks like it would at least allow for a low pressure that would be slowly intensifying.. at the least.. but like most of the other models.. not phased with the northern stream and not particularly amplified in nature.. but a fairly tight wavelength Its a step in the right direction so that is a good thing man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 its actually a bit SE of 00z. Precip barely makes it past philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 .. and basically, it's a nice hit for Virginia... assuming temps are good there. all measurable precip stays south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This run is definitely slower. But it's going to be a graze again and a miss for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 of course, the storm begins phasing nicely when it's hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Its a step in the right direction so that is a good thing man This run is not a step in the right direction. Even DC misses out on the moderate precipitation that the euro had them getting nailed with last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This run is not a step in the right direction. Even DC misses out on the moderate precipitation that the euro had them getting nailed with last night Spoke too soon sorry. We'll see what the european ensembles look like them when they come out. They've been better than the operational. This thing is going to trend north i think and were still like 60+ hours out and its gonna change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Things don't look good today but there isn't a reason to give up just yet. I would wait until the 12z runs tomorrow to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This run is definitely slower. But it's going to be a graze again and a miss for NYC According to the SNE crew, it's barely a hit even for the DC area. It's like a funeral over there. I'd really like to see the Euro come north with the GFS so it's not on its own. Its continuing to insist on a southern track and sheared out/crap system is concerning. I could see how the northern branch cooperates a little better and allows for a better outcome, but I'd like to start seeing it soon. The foreign models all went south at 12z even despite a better looking southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 you will say the same thing tomorrow and Saturday. Things don't look good today but there isn't a reason to give up just yet. I would wait until the 12z runs tomorrow to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 you will say the same thing tomorrow and Saturday. Actually, I wouldn't. Euro hasn't been good all winter. Lets just see what the 0z models show tonight and then see what the 12z runs show tomorrow before writing this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 According to the SNE crew, it's barely a hit even for the DC area. It's like a funeral over there. I'd really like to see the Euro come north with the GFS so it's not on its own. Its continuing to insist on a southern track and sheared out/crap system is concerning. I could see how the northern branch cooperates a little better and allows for a better outcome, but I'd like to start seeing it soon. The foreign models all went south at 12z even despite a better looking southern wave. Well the southern stream looked better on the euro, too, but considering the progression of the northern stream trending faster, it is currently forecast to move through NNE at the exact worst time, right when we want the heights to amplify. If it was really slow, it would phase or not really interfere with the downstream amplification, if it's really fast, it moves out of the way in time for amplification. We are in the worst case " in between" scenario with respect to the northern stream. If it continues going faster, I think we still have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The Euro solution comes down to not having that vort near Michigan like the GFS has. Unfortunately, the GFS seldom wins when all the other guidance is against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Was checking out analogs from the GFS.. I'm not really crazy about any of them, but this 3/4/81 is about as close as I can find.. which was probably a non-event here.. It has a southwest cutoff eventually phasing with the northern stream. Thing I don't like about this one is that this has much more of a PV influence in the northern stream where-as in our case, it's more short-wave oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Things don't look good today but there isn't a reason to give up just yet. I would wait until the 12z runs tomorrow to do so. LOL- you should really go into the New England and just read, not post... the odds of this producing anything SUBSTANTIAL at this latitude are equal to the NY Mets winning the World Series this year....so i guess you dont have to give up. The Northern Stream shortwave over the GL's either has to get the eff out of the way or dig deeper into the ohio/tenn valley...if not there is no room for any amplification of the southern stream SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 LOL- you should really go into the New England and just read, not post... the odds of this producing anything SUBSTANTIAL at this latitude are equal to the NY Mets winning the World Series this year....so i guess you dont have to give up. The Northern Stream shortwave over the GL's either has to get the eff out of the way or dig deeper into the ohio/tenn valley...if not there is no room for any amplification of the southern stream SW Yeah, if the models are correct in their northern stream depiction, this event is toast. Hopefully they're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The Euro solution comes down to not having that vort near Michigan like the GFS has. Unfortunately, the GFS seldom wins when all the other guidance is against it. yea... even the GFS is not a complete phase until it's offshore, but it's got a partial phase of some energy from Canada that basically drops due south and sort of meets up with the southern stream near Missouri... that's why it is more amped up than the others.. but it really doesn't phase complete till it's well offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 LOL- you should really go into the New England and just read, not post... the odds of this producing anything SUBSTANTIAL at this latitude are equal to the NY Mets winning the World Series this year....so i guess you dont have to give up. The Northern Stream shortwave over the GL's either has to get the eff out of the way or dig deeper into the ohio/tenn valley...if not there is no room for any amplification of the southern stream SW We have better odds than the Boston area for the storm, they need just about everything perfect while we can afford not the best solution, but we really need a trend to start soon where the northern confluence slacks off while the southern wave amplifies. The southern stream can do all it wants, but if there's a brick wall south of here that keeps dry air training in and the upper flow northwesterly, there's nothing it can do but shear out against that brick wall and escape east. There's almost certainly going to be a nasty cutoff somewhere in this kind of pattern, much like 2/6/10. We just have to hope it's a little north of us. Cape Cod still has a fighting chance too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We have better odds than the Boston area for the storm, they need just about everything perfect while we can afford not the best solution, but we really need a trend to start soon where the northern confluence slacks off while the southern wave amplifies. The southern stream can do all it wants, but if there's a brick wall south of here that keeps dry air training in and the upper flow northwesterly, there's nothing it can do but shear out against that brick wall and escape east. There's almost certainly going to be a nasty cutoff somewhere in this kind of pattern, much like 2/6/10. We just have to hope it's a little north of us. Cape Cod still has a fighting chance too. I think, and im far from an expert, i'd prefer that GL shortwave to dig and phase as opposed to it getting out of the way, that *could* still suppress the system....maybe one of the Mets can chime in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yea... even the GFS is not a complete phase until it's offshore, but it's got a partial phase of some energy from Canada that basically drops due south and sort of meets up with the southern stream near Missouri... that's why it is more amped up than the others.. but it really doesn't phase complete till it's well offshore You get the feeling that we may see the GFS go south as soon as 18z or 0z, but we'll see how things go. Without the Euro ensembles being a little north of the OP there may not be much hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think, and im far from an expert, i'd prefer that GL shortwave to dig and phase as opposed to it getting out of the way, that *could* still suppress the system....maybe one of the Mets can chime in.... I'd rather have the northern stream speed up and get out of the way, as opposed to a full phase. That would likely bring a too-warm solution and rain (and now is very unlikely). A faster northern stream makes this a southern stream feature only, and while it would be a weaker system it would still be a very wet one and deliver copious amounts of snow. It also wouldn't cut like a phased system would and it would remain SE of here. Seriously though, I'd like to see when the last time was that we had a 1000mb or lower system over N AL or MS be a complete miss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd rather have the northern stream speed up and get out of the way, as opposed to a full phase. That would likely bring a too-warm solution and rain (and now is very unlikely). A faster northern stream makes this a southern stream feature only, and while it would be a weaker system it would still be a very wet one and deliver copious amounts of snow. It also wouldn't cut like a phased system would and it would remain SE of here. Seriously though, I'd like to see when the last time was that we had a 1000mb or lower system over N AL or MS be a complete miss here. I would take the phase, Euro is a whiff and thats most likely in this pattern without a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You get the feeling that we may see the GFS go south as soon as 18z or 0z, but we'll see how things go. Without the Euro ensembles being a little north of the OP there may not be much hope. if it continues to at least partially phase over parts of the mid-west, I think it may, at the least, hold status quo. The additonal amplification is certainly what is tending to drive this model a bit further north. The chances right now of a closed off system at 500 are probably decreasing though... even, at best, the GFS closes it off well offshore... which in turn is telling you that it would be a fairly progressive system that probably wouldn't slow down.. We've seen stranger things happen though.. This thing could turn on a dime if things play out right.. I wouldn't want to discount any possible scenario at this point. I think the one thing we can say with a fairly high certainty is that temps could be a problem for some areas unless this thing turns into a bomb and can drag some colder air down at the lowest levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 @jm1220 the northern stream features this year as stated by john(earthlight) have been moving faster than modeled this year so the northerm stream feature getting out of the way in time is still a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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