NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We'll probably do better than 2/6/10 in any case. All depends where you are located that storm was very unusual and unlikely to be repeated anytime soon - The set up was different also the primary traveled up the TN Valley from the gulf and transfered the energy off the coast and then the storm made a east turn at MD Coast here is the summary on that one http://www.njfreeway.../06-Feb-10.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The models have hinted all week at the confluence over the north east . Once the Low clears the lakes fri am then the resistance to the movement north will get ironed out and this should get reflected in the next day or 2 in the models . Im sure this gets shunted more north than progged . then i guess i will " worry " about precip type . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Right, but after that..it seems like it would go a little more left of the Canadian. Again, have to look at H5 and not just QPF maps. At hour 96, the surface low looks way east of Virginia, so it would appear very litle ENE movement past hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At hour 96, the surface low looks way east of Virginia, so it would appear very litle ENE movement past hour 72. I don't see hr 96 on the Plymouth site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't see hr 96 on the Plymouth site. Here you go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The purpose of the UKMET is that if the surface low is northwest of the place most other models have it from forecast hour 48 to forecast hour 72, then that is a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At hour 96, the surface low looks way east of Virginia, so it would appear very litle ENE movement past hour 72. Pointless to even comment on the UK when you can't see 72-96 hours. By the way, the UKM SLP position was 200 miles west of the GFS at 72 hours.......I think that's the point Coastal is trying to make here.....upper levels looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Pointless to even comment on the UK when you can't see 72-96 hours. By the way, the UKM SLP position was 200 miles west of the GFS at 72 hours.......I think that's the point Coastal is trying to make here.....upper levels looked good. Yes. At hour 72, H5 maps did argue for a turn NE and closer to the GFS, but the result definetely was not that. Its clear it stayed well south and exited the coast near NC and headed ENE from there and ended hundreds of miles east of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What's important is the H5 evolution of the Ukie. Not the surface representation. Is it showing that same trend of speeding up the northern stream and strengthening the southern vort... Edit, just seeing above the the upper air features looked more favorable. Goooood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 All depends where you are located that storm was very unusual and unlikely to be repeated anytime soon - The set up was different also the primary traveled up the TN Valley from the gulf and transfered the energy off the coast and then the storm made a east turn at MD Coast here is the summary on that one http://www.njfreeway.../06-Feb-10.html I was joking. Nothing approaching that level of blocking this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What's important is the H5 evolution of the Ukie. Not the surface representation. Is it showing that same trend of speeding up the northern stream and strengthening the southern vort... Edit, just seeing above the the upper air features looked more favorable. Goooood. The southern stream seems to be turning more favorable and stronger with the storm. We just need a slightly more favorable northern stream to allow the flow to back and appreciable snow to make it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GEFS has a 997 low off of Hatteras. It is slightly more northwest than the last ensemble mean run and southeast of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GEFS mean is similar to the operational. Perhaps a touch north with the precip shield, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If this doesn't phase....I really dont see how this can turn the corner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ok so we've seen some very positive runs today and one thing is for sure if the euro ensembles/operational have this kind of setup too were very very close to having a moisture loaded storm hit us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GEFS has around .25 for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Some of the SREF members at 09z have monster hits here, and most interestingly their 500mb evolutions aren't that dissimilar from the GFS, NAM, etc. Just small changes make a world of difference. 84 hours out, we have plenty of time. It could go either way still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 If this doesn't phase....I really dont see how this can turn the corner.... This southern stream vort is strong and has tons of energy & moisture. What's really screwing us right now is the northern stream -- as modeled. A shortwave swings through the Great Lakes at the absolute worst time inducing NW winds at 500mb. If this timing is even slightly different, we're going to see drastic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This southern stream vort is strong and has tons of energy & moisture. What's really screwing us right now is the northern stream -- as modeled. A shortwave swings through the Great Lakes at the absolute worst time inducing NW winds at 500mb. If this timing is even slightly different, we're going to see drastic changes. Yeah, a small tweak at 500mb can have an exponential difference at the surface. It's not all about tracking how close the surface low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This southern stream vort is strong and has tons of energy & moisture. What's really screwing us right now is the northern stream -- as modeled. A shortwave swings through the Great Lakes at the absolute worst time inducing NW winds at 500mb. If this timing is even slightly different, we're going to see drastic changes. Maybe without any decent blocking, the 50/50 slides further east allowing the southern stream to lift further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This southern stream vort is strong and has tons of energy & moisture. What's really screwing us right now is the northern stream -- as modeled. A shortwave swings through the Great Lakes at the absolute worst time inducing NW winds at 500mb. If this timing is even slightly different, we're going to see drastic changes. yep... and the northern stream situation is extremely complex.. you can see the number of shortwaves involved.. in fact, about 3 or so are forecasted to move through between now and the forecasted event... the fact that the models have come into some sort of relative consensus on a mainly mid-atlantic hit does not disturb me at all, because we've seen so many times the situation where one model makes a move and they all then follow suit after. This system potentially might not be a forecast lock until inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe without any decent blocking, the 50/50 slides further east allowing the southern stream to lift further north. I was thinking earlier about how every northern stream vort this year has moved out faster as we got closer to the event. Remember all the times the PV or really low heights were modeled to drop in for a few days, only to trend quicker at 48 hrs. It would be pretty comical if this were the one time it actually dropped down just enough to suppress the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Need I remind everyone the Boxing day storm was a near miss 48 hours prior to the event -- we're still out at 75-80 hours, more than enough time for this to trend NW. The southern stream vort looks potent enough to produce a significant snow event even if it misses the nern stream energy, then pumps heights and comes northward. Obviously if we can get the northern stream involvement we'd see a bomb off the east coast, down to 980-85mb like we saw on previous model runs. But I think we'd all gladly take a 995mb low near the VA capes in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I was thinking earlier about how every northern stream vort this year has moved out faster as we got closer to the event. Remember all the times the PV or really low heights were modeled to drop in for a few days, only to trend quicker at 48 hrs. It would be pretty comical if this were the one time it actually dropped down just enough to suppress the storm. Yeah, it may also come down to the other spoke of energy that may not be getting sampled too well yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This southern stream vort is strong and has tons of energy & moisture. What's really screwing us right now is the northern stream -- as modeled. A shortwave swings through the Great Lakes at the absolute worst time inducing NW winds at 500mb. If this timing is even slightly different, we're going to see drastic changes. Over the last 24hrs we have seen the models trend much faster with the northern stream energy. I see no reason in this fast/progressive flow why this wont continue. If we continue to see a faster northern stream disturbance I really think that southern stream vort can turn the corner. I know this is our best possibility at this juncture but I think this is actually also our best chance at a mostly snow event as the northern stream disturbance cools our antecedent airmass down a bit. With that juicy STJ if this thing turns the corner, even with the fast speed as there isn't much to slow it down, it would be a big snow-maker. Lets hope that the trends continue with a faster northern stream s/w, a slower ejection of the southern stream disturbance, or some combination of the two. The only caveat to this is if there is too much spacing between the two but with <90 hrs to go I doubt it trends THAT much. The uber-phased solution was cool to look at but with weak confluence and nothing to stop it from hugging the coast I think we can all agree it would've been disappointing for most unless it literally had PERFECT timing (ie the storm escaped east a bit before it phased). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Your absolutely right john about the northern stream shortwaves. They were quicker than modeled and that would pay dividends here and get this storm to slam us. Todays and tommorows runs are pinnacle in nailing down the northern stream. One thing we do know is that this southern stream system is gonna be BIG and loaded with moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Your absolutely right john about the northern stream shortwaves. They were quicker than modeled and that would pay dividends here and get this storm to slam us. Todays and tommorows runs are pinnacle in nailing down the northern stream. One thing we do know is that this southern stream system is gonna be BIG and loaded with moisture Some spots in the SE could see a significant severe outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the southern stream confinues to slow and amplify, we could see more gulf interaction which would lead to latent heat release, causing a positive feedback which would raise the heights out ahead of it further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Some spots in the SE could see a significant severe outbreak. our biggest storms also bought severe weather outbreak to the south while we got a dumping of snow 03' had that i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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