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February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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GFS is advertising cyclogenesis no matter what way you slice it. Its deepening fairly rapidly as it slides ENE.

1000 mb low not the 988 that was advertised on last nites 18z run

- so was making it one in the same

Trough is pos tilted not neg

more of an open wave - make a ton of difference when implying dynamic cooling

and since its 50 degress 24 hrs prior to the storm , thats my issue BL SEEMS TO BE AN ISSUE TO ME IMO

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That southern vort is really looking potent now, on both GFS and NAM runs. If only that S/W over the Lakes could weaken or be delayed a bit, the trough alignment would be a lot better, the flow would back and this would come roaring right up the coast. As it is, it develops nicely up to NW GA/TN, and then gets sheared east because of the trainwrecked northern stream. If there's only some way we could weaken that or shift the features around slightly...

HAARP?

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Really this is quite close. I would argue for the storm to make a bump northwest. Unlike 2/6/10, there is no strong -NAO nor a monster 50/50 low that would prevent this from making a NW adjustment. 3 days out, a lot of things to watch out for, the strength of the southern and northern stream vorts, timing, spacing, etc etc.

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Would not take much to bump Southern Jersey precip totals up our way.

I'd rather be here than in the middle of the bullseye at this juncture. Waiting on the Euro today-hopefully it continues to tick north, and we continue the ens support.

A good 0.75-1" liquid is good for a 6-12" event, even this year and with warm ground/preceding air. I'll take that in spades.

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You can add the GGEM as well. Very south. At hour 72, there is no precip past central Virginia.

GGEM is so south, it barely gives DC .25" of precip.

Judging the UKIE precip maps at hour 72 and also the 500 maps at hour 96, the ukie also is just as south, if not more south then the GGEM as well.

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