wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you're looking for trends so far, they are positive...just not what we were looking at yesterday. Quicker northern stream and a stronger southern stream. We have a long ways to go and things are looking up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS is advertising cyclogenesis no matter what way you slice it. Its deepening fairly rapidly as it slides ENE. 1000 mb low not the 988 that was advertised on last nites 18z run - so was making it one in the same Trough is pos tilted not neg more of an open wave - make a ton of difference when implying dynamic cooling and since its 50 degress 24 hrs prior to the storm , thats my issue BL SEEMS TO BE AN ISSUE TO ME IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That southern vort is really looking potent now, on both GFS and NAM runs. If only that S/W over the Lakes could weaken or be delayed a bit, the trough alignment would be a lot better, the flow would back and this would come roaring right up the coast. As it is, it develops nicely up to NW GA/TN, and then gets sheared east because of the trainwrecked northern stream. If there's only some way we could weaken that or shift the features around slightly... HAARP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I also like the banana high to our northwest. If we get more lift and precip up this way, the weenies worry of BL temps will not be an issue at all. I m sure you meant someone else , so i will ignore such nonsene . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 For being 78 hours out, plenty of time to trend toward a nice hit. All we need is some small adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 .25" line touches the south shore of LI and cuts through most of Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe 0.25" to Sandy Hook this run. Definitely looking positive. If we can just rearrange the northern stream mess a little, or even just weaken that obnoxious S/W that flattens the flow up here and keep the strong southern jet, we can be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This run was a positive step in the right direction. Just need the northern stream to time better and we'd be in business for a big snowstorm becuase that STJ is loaded with moisture wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If we can get that energy in the Great Lakes to move out quicker this would definitely come more north and west. I like the southern vort trending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This run was a positive step in the right direction. Just need the northern stream to time better and we'd be in business for a big snowstorm becuase that STJ is loaded with moisture wow! This is definitely a Nino-like setup and pattern. Not what you would expect in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is definitely a Nino-like setup and pattern. Not what you would expect in a Nina. If we can get a timing worked, this can be a very large storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really this is quite close. I would argue for the storm to make a bump northwest. Unlike 2/6/10, there is no strong -NAO nor a monster 50/50 low that would prevent this from making a NW adjustment. 3 days out, a lot of things to watch out for, the strength of the southern and northern stream vorts, timing, spacing, etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is definitely a Nino-like setup and pattern. Not what you would expect in a Nina. I'm not exactly sure why, but this kind of reminds me of December 19-20, 2009. Just from an intuitive model analysis, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 For all the world if you just looked at hours 54-66 you'd think this was going to cut over NYC. The surface low track and near negatice tilt at 500 when the disturbance is over Arkansas would make you think that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z UKIE appears well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Would not take much to bump Southern Jersey precip totals up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z UKIE appears well south. You can add the GGEM as well. Very south. At hour 72, there is no precip past central Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In progressive flows, these models will tend to be too progressive You can add the GGEM as well. Very south. At hour 72, there is no precip past central Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Would not take much to bump Southern Jersey precip totals up our way. I'd rather be here than in the middle of the bullseye at this juncture. Waiting on the Euro today-hopefully it continues to tick north, and we continue the ens support. A good 0.75-1" liquid is good for a 6-12" event, even this year and with warm ground/preceding air. I'll take that in spades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You can add the GGEM as well. Very south. At hour 72, there is no precip past central Virginia. GGEM is so south, it barely gives DC .25" of precip. Judging the UKIE precip maps at hour 72 and also the 500 maps at hour 96, the ukie also is just as south, if not more south then the GGEM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The biggest difference with the GEM vs the GFS is that it has nearly the same SLP placement as the GFS at 72 and 84 but has the precip shield nowhere as far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM is so south, it barely gives DC .25" of precip. LOL...poor GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 LOL...poor GGEM. UKIE is almost exactly like it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 UKIE is almost exactly like it as well. The surface is very similar on the GFS and GGEM. UKIE always seems to be all over the place. Not to worry. If EURO follows suit then I would worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is definitely a Nino-like setup and pattern. Not what you would expect in a Nina. Without a doubt and i think this storm is gonna correct north too. The southern stream is just sooo juicy and if it does trend north its gonna drop an epic qpf bomb for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 UKIE is almost exactly like it as well. Neither model has been too good as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Neither model has been too good as of late. I don't that they fixed the southerly bias on the UKIE yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't think the Ukie was as bad as people are making it out to be. It was south at hr 72 but the low was probably goijg to go off HSE or close to it, just by looking at the height pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't think the Ukie was as bad as people are making it out to be. It was south at hr 72 but the low was probably goijg to go off HSE or close to it, just by looking at the height pattern. Precip shield is very south. Similar to the GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Precip shield is very south. Similar to the GGEM: Right, but after that..it seems like it would go a little more left of the Canadian. Again, have to look at H5 and not just QPF maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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