earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As we all await tonight's 00z suite, we've been given a tremendous array of solutions over the past 24 hrs. It's going to be an interesting few days. As usual please keep the banter to a minimum. If you are going to say something about the models, use some reasoning. It starts with the SREFs momentarily. Good luck, and wishing you all feet of wind driven snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As we all await tonight's 00z suite, we've been given a tremendous array of solutions over the past 24 hrs. It's going to be an interesting few days. As usual please keep the banter to a minimum. If you are going to say something about the models, use some reasoning. It starts with the SREFs momentarily. Good luck, and wishing you all feet of wind driven snow. Havent heard this In a while lets go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Without having to extrapolate any of the shorter term models, we should at least get some clues tonight as to where they may lean, as a lot of the players on the field are important very early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 srefs are in, here's 500mb http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+21UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+MEANSPRD&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 87 hour SLP on the SREFs is over Cape Hatteras, it appears based on the trajectory from 81-87 it would pass just south of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 87 hour SLP on the SREFs is over Cape Hatteras, it appears based on the trajectory from 81-87 it would pass just south of the benchmark the good news is its more gfs like in regards to a cleaner phase of the different streams and not the disfunctional look the 18z nam had of the cutoff getting held back. Members leaning more north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 H5 looks fairly good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 87 hour SLP on the SREFs is over Cape Hatteras, it appears based on the trajectory from 81-87 it would pass just south of the benchmark Key here though is that the SREFs phase the northern and southern streams. The 21z SREFs seem like a good compromise of the overly phased GFS and the unphased ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 All kinds of win on the SREFS.... Edit: if you know how to extrapolate the spread in the means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 87 hour SLP on the SREFs is over Cape Hatteras, it appears based on the trajectory from 81-87 it would pass just south of the benchmark Thats what I like to hear. On a side note, what is it with presidents day weekend? Correct me if I'm wrong, but we're usually tracking some sort of storm for presidents day every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interested to see what the individual members of the 21z SREFs on E-Wall look like when they come out, because a lot of members appeared to be leaning a little bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREF definitely looks like a good compromise track between the GFS and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NAM looks very progressive with the shortwave north of Montana at 24 hours. The 12 and 18z GFS runs were much farther west and more amplified with that shortwave. In fact it's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM not very useful after 54 hrs. I am waiting for the GFS, the GEM and ECMWF runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Very ugly. That disturbance off the PNW is pretty crucial- the 18z was modeling that a bit stronger, thus enabling the ridge to pump ahead and the disturbance around Montana to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Very ugly. That disturbance off the PNW is pretty crucial- the 18z was modeling that a bit stronger, thus enabling the ridge to pump ahead and the disturbance around Montana to dig. The NAM height field looks fairly similar to the 18z GFS. For reference, the NAM has a shortwave and trough axis over Eastern Montana valid 12z Friday. The GFS had it in a very similar spot -- almost identical. The 12z Euro valid at the same time had this trough axis over Western Iowa...hundreds of miles faster and south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NAM height field looks fairly similar to the 18z GFS. For reference, the NAM has a shortwave and trough axis over Eastern Montana valid 12z Friday. The GFS had it in a very similar spot -- almost identical. The 12z Euro valid at the same time had this trough axis over Western Iowa...hundreds of miles faster and south/east. Hopefully we can get some northern stream interaction with the southern vort, but hopefully it will occur a little later than the GFS, so we don't get a super amped up inland solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 21Z Old ETA looks nothing like the Euro, thats a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NAM height field looks fairly similar to the 18z GFS. For reference, the NAM has a shortwave and trough axis over Eastern Montana valid 12z Friday. The GFS had it in a very similar spot -- almost identical. The 12z Euro valid at the same time had this trough axis over Western Iowa...hundreds of miles faster and south/east. Yea, but that energy from MT has consistently phased in before the SW was ejected- to some extent on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yea, but that energy from MT has consistently phased in before the SW was ejected- to some extent on the GFS The 00z NAM looks like a little less northern stream interaction than what the 18z GFS depicted, which is good, considering the GFS had a phased inland solution, and if we can get a later phase, then we have a better chance at getting more snow than rain out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM looks like it is beginning to phase the northern and southern streams at hour 48 at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A bit more confluence in the NE. But looks very similar to 18z NAM...good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Without having to extrapolate any of the shorter term models, we should at least get some clues tonight as to where they may lean, as a lot of the players on the field are important very early on. Apparently this was awful analysis, considering how different the NAM looked at 24 vs where it ended up after 36 hours. Is it just a timing thing out west with that energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The southern stream s/w is slightly faster compared to 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The southern stream s/w is slightly faster compared to 12z and 18z. Yes. And almost negatively tilted at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 558 dm heights on the 18z NAM were not phased with the s/w at hour 66. At hour 60 of the 00z NAM, they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 558 dm heights on the 18z NAM were not phased with the s/w at hour 66. At hour 60 of the 00z NAM, they are. The northern stream is hanging back a little bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 srn stream wave stronger and going neg tilt at 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NAM looks like it's going to just barely miss the phase here...but oddly enough it looked similar to the 18z GFS with the northern stream. It is slower in ejecting the southern stream vort and the height field over the Eastern 1/3 of the US is significantly less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NAM looks like it's going to just barely miss the phase here...but oddly enough it looked similar to the 18z GFS with the northern stream. It is slower in ejecting the southern stream vort and the height field over the Eastern 1/3 of the US is significantly less amplified. The slower ejection of the sw is the biggest difference. Holding that energy back always the northern features to swing through with no interaction missing the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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