ski MRG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS is a S Coast scraper. Right where we want it in this time frame. The southern system is going to end up cranking and tracking in tight. lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Right where we want it in this time frame. The southern system is going to end up cranking and tracking in tight. lock it up. It's not as easy as that since the northern stream will only let this go so far north. FWIW though the EC ens were north of the op and the 12z ens. The ens get the 0.25" mean up to about Kevin and 0.50" to near PHL so there has to be some amped up members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's not as easy as that since the northern stream will only let this go so far north. FWIW though the EC ens were north of the op and the 12z ens. The ens get the 0.25" mean up to about Kevin and 0.50" to near PHL so there has to be some amped up members. Unless the NS races ahead. Trust me. I have higher verification scores than the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not surprising the turn of events overnight. I'm glad I didn;t get overly emotionally invested in this. I have a feeling this will get us with a couple of inches..The Euro ens mean having 2-4 up to the Mass border means there is room for this to come north..But that just doesn't seem all that likely. The funny thing is the GFS is right where you'd want it and think it would be at this stage..but not having ANY of the other modles hitting us makes you think the big snows stay south and we only get a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Unless the NS races ahead. Trust me. I have higher verification scores than the JMA. Lol. I'll be bummed to be stranded at BWI on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Other years I think we'd all feel very confident that this comes all the way north..but this year everyone is gunshy. Hopefully the last 3 day NW trend that we usually see happens..but if the Euro stays south again today and nothing else comes north it's prob time to fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well...if this hits MD/PA/NJ...they could have higher rotals for the year than us in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well...if this hits MD/PA/NJ...they could have higher rotals for the year than us in some places. I think they will get hit but I don't think they can rack up more than 3-5/6 inches in any non elevated area. Temperatures for them are not so hot. If anyone gets buried it will be further north areas and even the upper MA if the storm bombs, slows, and crawls north. Neither are likely at this moment but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 very good model agreement right now. we'll see what today holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You could see that the most robust original solutions were gone very early in last nights run. When we didn't get the kink early today coming down towards ND that first impulse in the northern stream was going to be too fast. It was that quick and that easy. No kink=too fast=no big earlier phase. So moving beyond that Will presented some other options. It looks like the non American guidance wants to give this a shot in phasing with some later energy. So now we wait and watch. Getting this to or nw of the bm will be tough. Bm or within 100 miles se more probable.if I had to bet I'd think decent hit mid atl and a south coast cape scrapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, the 06Z NOGAPS is not THAT suppressed by NOGAPS standards so thats something to hang your hat on if you want this thing coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like we will get pooched by the northern stream lobe unless we get it to slow down and dig, It does bring some light snows thru here but meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Other years I think we'd all feel very confident that this comes all the way north..but this year everyone is gunshy. Hopefully the last 3 day NW trend that we usually see happens..but if the Euro stays south again today and nothing else comes north it's prob time to fold The whiff has been on the table and is the biggest concern. It's just not a classic pattern for anyone in the East right now, but is enough to give a moderate deal to some..maybe borderline major for a very narrow area in the higher elevations down there. We'll know later today is this just holds steady or tries to go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 very good model agreement right now. we'll see what today holds. Agreed. Couple things I'm watching. The confluence to the N. 1st, If that can lift N or move out just a tad faster, this can come N, and vice-versa. 2nd, if that s/w diving out of the midwest can phase with that s/w across the gulf coast earlier and get this trough negative faster, we could see a low come a bit closer. There are still so many moving parts with this system. I see another s/w on the 06z GFS that looks like it tries to phase with this system just as it's coming off the mid atl coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like we will get pooched by the northern stream lobe unless we get it to slow down and dig, It does bring some light snows thru here but meh Hvy hvy non-event for us, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hvy hvy non-event for us, most likely. That what i had said yesterday, Getting it to this lat has a lot of things to have to go right, We could get some light snows though from the northern stream vort if things go totally in the toilet with the southern piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Agreed. Couple things I'm watching. The confluence to the N. 1st, If that can lift N or move out just a tad faster, this can come N, and vice-versa. 2nd, if that s/w diving out of the midwest can phase with that s/w across the gulf coast earlier and get this trough negative faster, we could see a low come a bit closer. There are still so many moving parts with this system. I see another s/w on the 06z GFS that looks like it tries to phase with this system just as it's coming off the mid atl coast. I almost feel at this point, that we should probably just hope this becomes more srn stream, with some of that nrn stream vorticity injected into it...like what the euro showed. Never say never in this field, but I think the 18z solution yesterday is pretty much off the table. No surprise there, right? So basically we want the nrn stream energy that is flattening out the height field over this region, to move east quickly. That opens the door to the southern stream upper level low to help amplify and get a kick in the butt, from some of that nrn stream energy. This is not an easy feat, as you can imagine...but I think that's what needs to be done if we want something. For now, my expectations remain low until we see some of this occur on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I almost feel at this point, that we should probably just hope this becomes more srn stream, with some of that nrn stream vorticity injected into it...like what the euro showed. Never say never in this field, but I think the 18z solution yesterday is pretty much off the table. No surprise there, right? So basically we want the nrn stream energy that is flattening out the height field over this region, to move east quickly. That opens the door to the southern stream upper level low to help amplify and get a kick in the butt, from some of that nrn stream energy. This is not an easy feat, as you can imagine...but I think that's what needs to be done if we want something. For now, my expectations remain low until we see some of this occur on guidance. I see what your saying there. I think also some of the problem we're having up here is this system, as modeled, develops a low so far S, that it takes time for it to chug up the coast and with the progressive nature of the pattern and kicker hot on its heels, there is only so much amplification this can do. I do think we need some N stream interaction to tug this this in, otherwise where huffing cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I see what your saying there. I think also some of the problem we're having up here is this system, as modeled, develops a low so far S, that it takes time for it to chug up the coast and with the progressive nature of the pattern and kicker hot on its heels, there is only so much amplification this can do. I do think we need some N stream interaction to tug this this in, otherwise where huffing cirrus. Yeah there are multiple things here. Although, one positive feedback gulf lows have, is the latent heat released from convection helping to pump up the se ridge. Now this can't shift a storm 200 miles nw, but it does have an effect on ridging in the south east. It's not often that you have a storm north of New Orleans and see nothing up this way. It can happen and maybe this is one of them..but it's sort of an old timer saying here..lol. Anyways, there is science behind that. However, a progressive nrn stream like we've had all season is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 storm mode again PHAIL, replaced the radio show as the kiss of death. This has all the looks of a whiff now. I agree with Will unless the SS really amps up and slows down allowing the N stream to keep trucking and confluence to scoot out we are screwed. fitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Weather chanel was just loving the GFS for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 storm mode again PHAIL, replaced the radio show as the kiss of death. This has all the looks of a whiff now. I agree with Will unless the SS really amps up and slows down allowing the N stream to keep trucking and confluence to scoot out we are screwed. fitting I don't think that could happen, but the other options have a small chance. IOW, this has to be mostly SS with some nrn stream injected into it..like the vortmax in Montana. Combine that with the nrn stream energy being quicker to move east of New England to allow amplification. Maybe that's what you mean. That's what Will and I were talking about last night. We'll see, but expectations should be low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't think that could happen, but the other options have a small chance. IOW, this has to be mostly SS with some nrn stream injected into it..like the vortmax in Montana. Combine that with the nrn stream energy being quicker to move east of New England to allow amplification. Maybe that's what you mean. That's what Will and I were talking about last night. We'll see, but expectations should be low right now. Yeah, I don't think a purely southern stream storm is going to cut it in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't think that could happen, but the other options have a small chance. IOW, this has to be mostly SS with some nrn stream injected into it..like the vortmax in Montana. Combine that with the nrn stream energy being quicker to move east of New England to allow amplification. Maybe that's what you mean. That's what Will and I were talking about last night. We'll see, but expectations should be low right now. I expect little but I do expect you will be posting more in the MA thread than ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 regardless of verification statistics over the past decades, I'd put money on the fact that the GFS has owned the EURO (and almost every model) in the 2-7 day range over the past 60-90 days; with every storm, we've been rooting against the GFS cause it showed crap, and that's what ended up happening...IMO, that's just something to keep in mind with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The whiff has been on the table and is the biggest concern. It's just not a classic pattern for anyone in the East right now, but is enough to give a moderate deal to some..maybe borderline major for a very narrow area in the higher elevations down there. We'll know later today is this just holds steady or tries to go north. You think we'll at least get some snow..even if just northern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You think we'll at least get some snow..even if just northern stream? No way this is purely a northern stream even. Come on Kev. Look at the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No way this is purely a northern stream even. Come on Kev. Look at the maps. I think he means when the nstream passes through there is snow, which I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 regardless of verification statistics over the past decades, I'd put money on the fact that the GFS has owned the EURO (and almost every model) in the 2-7 day range over the past 60-90 days; with every storm, we've been rooting against the GFS cause it showed crap, and that's what ended up happening...IMO, that's just something to keep in mind with this event Well the GFS is in danger of being too far se, if the ensembles are right. The euro ensembles are now more bullish. I don't completely agree with your statement, and this also doesn't mean much beyond day 5 when op models can show whatever they want..since that solution likely won't happen anyways. It's when you get inside day 4, where it counts. Also, many times when you have wide open solutions, models will compromise or move towards each other. When models are hundreds of miles apart, the end result can still be no snow in your back yard so although you may think one model crapped the bed...that's only because locally it took away your snow. You have to be objective with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I expect little but I do expect you will be posting more in the MA thread than ours. I have to deal with it, for work purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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