CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like the trend tonight has been to increase the speed of the energy in the nrn stream, and have this be virtually all srn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ensembles are a bit south and slower than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like the trend tonight has been to increase the speed of the energy in the nrn stream, and have this be virtually all srn stream. I think that makes a miss a higher likelihood now. But given we're still 3-4 days out, can't say that it won't change drastically again...even if its all southern stream. We'll have to see how the Euro comes in as the Ukie and GGEM tend to be 2nd rate models compared to other guidance during these storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You can see what the difference is at 18z..or at least one of them. Notice the ridge over Manitoba at hr 48 on the 00z prog. It lost the ridge look that the hr 54 prog had over that area. The ridge caused meridional or southward flow so that the s/w can try and phase with the srn stream energy. It is also slower to. At hr 48, you can see the ridge is sort of wiped out and we have faster nw-se flow. That causes the nrn stream energy to shoot out quickly into the GL. 00z 18z At hr 60 on the 00z prog, you can really see the difference. Hr 66 has that ridge into southwest Hudson bay and much slower with the nrn stream energy. This energy was about to work it's way into the picture and party with the srn stream. The hr 60 image of the 00z run is instead a bit faster and also allows for more zonal flow across the northeast and keeps heights down. It just goes to show you how everything has to work together in a pattern that is not classic for big events. However, I did like how the srn stream looked pretty healthy, so that will have to be watched. Probably the reason why the GFS wasn't a flat POS. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think that makes a miss a higher likelihood now. But given we're still 3-4 days out, can't say that it won't change drastically again...even if its all southern stream. We'll have to see how the Euro comes in as the Ukie and GGEM tend to be 2nd rate models compared to other guidance during these storm threats. Euro has been faster with the nrn stream stuff all along. My guess is that it may move north, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro has been faster with the nrn stream stuff all along. My guess is that it may move north, but not much. If the northern stream is going to be a lost cause to phase, I think we just want it to completely outrun everything by a lot and give some room for the southern stream to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the northern stream is going to be a lost cause to phase, I think we just want it to completely outrun everything by a lot and give some room for the southern stream to amplify. LOL, I thought the same thing. Let it slide another 200 miles east. It's not far from doing that, but that's risky too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There are some changes in the euro. Kind of early to say how it impacts the East, but it's much slower with the nrn stream stuff as compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There are some changes in the euro. Kind of early to say how it impacts the East, but it's much slower with the nrn stream stuff as compared to 12z. The one vortmax in the n stream is much slower, but the other that the GFS phased at 18z is running out ahead...maybe it can get those other two to amplify behind it. I think any chance of phasing with that first wave is pretty low at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It made a trend to the GFS regarding the s/w's near and north of Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The one vortmax in the n stream is much slower, but the other that the GFS phased at 18z is running out ahead...maybe it can get those other two to amplify behind it. I think any chance of phasing with that first wave is pretty low at this point. It's a weird looking pattern at hr 78. You have that one s/w over the deep south with another one trying to work in over Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Man lift that confluence out just a bit, and it's all srn stream. That was a 200 mile or so shift, but need a lot more work. Still a lot of details to iron out with all these s/w interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nice amplification by the southern stream but its not enough for us...good hit for the M.A....we need either the northern stream stuff to outrun it more or the southern stream to amp up earlier which is still a distinct possibility this early in the game and given how these southern stream juicy systems like to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nice amplification by the southern stream but its not enough for us...good hit for the M.A....we need either the northern stream stuff to outrun it more or the southern stream to amp up earlier which is still a distinct possibility this early in the game and given how these southern stream juicy systems like to do that. Yeah I'm sure we'll see some more changes. Hopefully it inches a little more closer tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be shocked if the 06z GFS backed off a bit more...even if it's right or wrong. GFS sometimes will correct itself for a couple of runs.That was a good hit for DC. Perfect spot for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The ensembles may be interesting, but I don't expect a 200 mile jump nw. Maybe a tick nw. Either way I'll have to deal with this at work Friday so I'm concerned for the whole northeast, not just here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah I'm sure we'll see some more changes. Hopefully it inches a little more closer tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be shocked if the 06z GFS backed off a bit more...even if it's right or wrong. GFS sometimes will correct itself for a couple of runs.That was a good hit for DC. Perfect spot for them. A southern stream system amping up is often decent for us without too much obscene blocking (ala Feb '03)...but this is really weird because it might not be all southern stream...some of that vorticity on the escaping northern stream could get infused into the montana s/w and then we see a different outcome too....so a lot of waiting still to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A southern stream system amping up is often decent for us without too much obscene blocking (ala Feb '03)...but this is really weird because it might not be all southern stream...some of that vorticity on the escaping northern stream could get infused into the montana s/w and then we see a different outcome too....so a lot of waiting still to do. This is one of those things, where you sort of marvel at computer modeling. It makes you wonder how the hell they can have even some consistency. Such a complicated flow. There are a probably 2-3 ways we can get something out of this, so hopefully one of these materializes. I do agree with your earlier comment about not probably seeing a phase job like the 18z GFS had. I think we may have to try and push for the srn stuff to do its magic. It's risky, but can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is one of those things, where you sort of marvel at computer modeling. It makes you wonder how the hell they can have even some consistency. Such a complicated flow. There are a probably 2-3 ways we can get something out of this, so hopefully one of these materializes. I do agree with your earlier comment about not probably seeing a phase job like the 18z GFS had. I think we may have to try and push for the srn stuff to do its magic. It's risky, but can happen. S stream will have to do the bulk of the work, but we can get some n stream help i think. We'll need a bit of vorticity infusion form the dominant northern stream shortwave that whiffs I think into the weaker one that tries to phase on the Euro but seems to lag behind most of the way of the southern stream. (our montana shortwave as many have been calling it)...that would probably weaken the confluence to the northeast as it steals energy from the stronger one and only make the southern wave stronger when that montana wave phases in (if it does at all)...the other way is that the northern stream simply speeds up a bit which isn't far fetched either since that has been the overwhelming trend tonight...if it speeds up more, then we have more room for the southern stream to do its work and we might start getting a low traveling up toward E TN and into interior NC which would be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 [/b] S stream will have to do the bulk of the work, but we can get some n stream help i think. We'll need a bit of vorticity infusion form the dominant northern stream shortwave that whiffs I think into the weaker one that tries to phase on the Euro but seems to lag behind most of the way of the southern stream. (our montana shortwave as many have been calling it)...that would probably weaken the confluence to the northeast as it steals energy from the stronger one and only make the southern wave stronger when that montana wave phases in (if it does at all)...the other way is that the northern stream simply speeds up a bit which isn't far fetched either since that has been the overwhelming trend tonight...if it speeds up more, then we have more room for the southern stream to do its work and we might start getting a low traveling up toward E TN and into interior NC which would be good for us. Agreed, and you could see hints of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't think much has changed since yesterday. The whiff threat is definitely there, but with 90+hrs left and seeing the complexity of this all..it's just way too early to have an idea as to what may happen. You move a s/w here or there..or changing the orientation of it, and it's a different solution. I would absolutely keep hopes in check for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah this is so crazy on the models that we are just going be left waiting...there is nothing from experience as a met that I could say which way this will go with respect to shortwaves....the only thing I will say is the ridge is pretty far east (and the ATL doesn't support it) which means I can rule out a Hudson Valley cutter....but I said that anyway during the 18z GFS run when Kevin actually asked us about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 5 inches is all we need. I am out of touch down here in Ocala....you gonna get a couple wet inches overnight tomorrow night? I see my point/click back home in Knox is 1-3". I'd rather see my left nut subsumed by a pair of plyers than see a ma special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ec ens are similar to op I see from other threads. I'm not ruling out a hit, but I'd say 90% right now this is an M.A storm. Good for them. Hopefully 6z/12z looks better. Back to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ec ens are similar to op I see from other threads. I'm not ruling out a hit, but I'd say 90% right now this is an M.A storm. Good for them. Hopefully 6z/12z looks better. Back to bed. Way too early to say anything yet given the complete chaos in the northern stream...even the southern stream isn't being handled evenly, but its better than the northern stream disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro ens mean ticked north again. We better start seeing some agreement/good developments today. We're running out of time for a good solution/phase to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro ens mean ticked north again. We better start seeing some agreement/good developments today. We're running out of time for a good solution/phase to lock in. I see a whiff for everyone if someone held a gun to my head....maybe some slop for the M.A....but maybe this will trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like the 12z and 18z gfs phase with the first piece of northern stream energy won't happen..So now we want that to move out faster so that the southern vort can potentially amplify more? 6z nam is a good amount faster with that through 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jb says euro will correct north in next 48 hours. Still has storm hitting the benchmark 40 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The old ETA and 06Z NAM now having these dual low centers late in the run off the Carolina coast and another back over GA. This happened 2 winters ago on a storm system and the NAM continued doing it for about 48 hours to nearly 1 day before the event before it resolved it, hopefully it doesnt fall into that again or it will be useless for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS is a S Coast scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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