snowNH Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Phil has the best shot pretty clearly. The question will be does this do what the last one did and end up kind of far SE (like 200-300 miles SE of the BM). I think it's got a good shot of getting close to the BM...at least enough to give him a good poke. Dude what the hell are you talking about? You're basing this claim off of 1 run of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's a tough interaction with all the s/w's so it goes to show you how tough it is, to get those earlier GFS runs. Even after all the guidance comes in, it really wouldn't change my opinion one way or another. It looks so disjointed at 500mb...and quite unstable. I highly doubt the final solution ends up like that. It looks like a razors edge type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 one run removed from it being the nw outlier, i feel it is time to pull the "GFS SE Bias" card for 500 Alex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM will be coming north I think, more in line with the consensus of the other models. It's not going to be like the old GFS, i think just north and probably scraping by somewhere offshore close. UKIE doesn't look bad either, slower than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you like 1-3". He is north of town so verbatim he would get a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you like 1-3". whoa whoa whoa now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro will be interesting. But i have a 5am run. Peace out boy scouts. Dreaming of a tiger trampler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It looks so disjointed at 500mb...and quite unstable. I highly doubt the final solution ends up like that. It looks like a razors edge type solution. Yeah it's got all sorts of little strung out areas of higher vorticity down south, probably because of some convection. That could play a part too. This thing should have a ton of convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It looks to me like the Ukie and GGEM are totally different evolutions...they let the northern stream run ahead of it and then try to amplify the southern stream by itself behind it. Ukie only out to 72 so not sure how it would do later on, but the GGEM at 96h is hitting the M.A....I think it would be too far south of us once 108h comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM came north......thru 96 so it could possibly make a closer pass. Northern energy is further west, southern energy is SSE of it. Slower, probably has a shot at going closer than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cmc through 96 hours seems to hit RIC pretty hard but light to met in dc/bwi and nothing north. It looks to be a whiff thereafter but I don't see beyond 96. Also, it's much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Awt on cmc. Good hit up to maybe dc or just south. RIC gets it big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Off to bed. Still a work in progress. I'm starting to feel confident that dc sees a nice snowstorm out of this system and that includes bwi, Philly,maybe even NYC and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Awt on cmc. Good hit up to maybe dc or just south. RIC gets it big time. where are you guys getting every model ahead of the rest of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 where are you guys getting every model ahead of the rest of us? I swear I saw it on the cmc site but now it's the old image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM came north......thru 96 so it could possibly make a closer pass. Northern energy is further west, southern energy is SSE of it. Slower, probably has a shot at going closer than the GFS. That northern energy is totally different than the one we've been following on the GFS and NAM...go back and look at 60h and 72h...it flies way ahead of the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ok now cmc is really out. Very nice hit for bwi southward. Snow gets into central NJ. Work in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That northern energy is totally different than the one we've been following on the GFS and NAM...go back and look at 60h and 72h...it flies way ahead of the southern stream. Yeah, by 96 hours it's way, way slower...so something is amiss again. UKMET was also slower, More NCEP problems? It's getting a little silly now that there are such sharp differences at 48-72 hours. Right now the NCEP models are the fast outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is from New England Weather works....regarding the newer run of the GFS and the NOAA G4 recon data report...which tells of a different story about the track..ie which brings a major snow event to the Northeast...read on! G4 hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance data used for the 0z GFS has helped iron out some of the wrinkles, The GFS is still showing a Major snow event in the North East on SUN and MON showing Snow making it as Far North as Southern New England. With this added data from the G4 Hurricane Hunter air Craft we are becoming Much more confident that an event is now possible for the North East. Waiting on the EURO before making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is from New England Weather works....regarding the newer run of the GFS and the NOAA G4 recon data report...which tells of a different story about the track..ie which brings a major snow event to the Northeast...read on! G4 hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance data used for the 0z GFS has helped iron out some of the wrinkles, The GFS is still showing a Major snow event in the North East on SUN and MON showing Snow making it as Far North as Southern New England. With this added data from the G4 Hurricane Hunter air Craft we are becoming Much more confident that an event is now possible for the North East. Waiting on the EURO before making a forecast. I'm not real sure the data is helping. Time will tell...but the 0z GFS is way faster than the two other globals we have right now. So either it got data others didn't, or it used that data very differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is from New England Weather works....regarding the newer run of the GFS and the NOAA G4 recon data report...which tells of a different story about the track..ie which brings a major snow event to the Northeast...read on! G4 hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance data used for the 0z GFS has helped iron out some of the wrinkles, The GFS is still showing a Major snow event in the North East on SUN and MON showing Snow making it as Far North as Southern New England. With this added data from the G4 Hurricane Hunter air Craft we are becoming Much more confident that an event is now possible for the North East. Waiting on the EURO before making a forecast. Man that cornea looks classic. Herpes simplex with a prominent epithelial lesion. Classic dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks like the ggem gets measurable up to the south shore of li and due east from there, pretty drastic move north since 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't know where to start with how many things are wrong - text book wise - with this overall synoptic layout. This is a progressive omega construct from the Pacific Coast to the Atlantic Coast. I don't have an analog in mind where that created much of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Joe yep big tick north. It's great that we're seeing the entire solution cone come into better agreement. Anyone have the later ukmet? Curious if that went Ggem. I remember one other time where the gfs was extreme and it was discarded. It's just so much slower. Is this a case of the flight data really making an impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Joe yep big tick north. It's great that we're seeing the entire solution cone come into better agreement. Anyone have the later ukmet? Curious if that went Ggem. I remember one other time where the gfs was extreme and it was discarded. It's just so much slower. Is this a case of the flight data really making an impact? It is basically like the Nam and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Alright, this is very embarassing, but I'm a complete armchair QPF map guy. What we are looking for is something like this on the 500 map, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, by 96 hours it's way, way slower...so something is amiss again. UKMET was also slower, More NCEP problems? It's getting a little silly now that there are such sharp differences at 48-72 hours. Right now the NCEP models are the fast outliers. That chart still shows wave interference with the N stream though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ggem almost had to come north it was so suppressed, ukmet went south a little..........seems like besides the 0zgfs guidance is clustering just south of our area, hopefully the euro will look more like the 12z mean. Its been a brutal year, trying to find positives in all of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ggem almost had to come north it was so suppressed, ukmet went south a little..........seems like besides the 0zgfs guidance is clustering just south of our area, hopefully the euro will look more like the 12z mean. Its been a brutal year, trying to find positives in all of this I made a joke out of it in that early post but this is pretty much what I thought would happen. Gist: fun runs collapse a bit... It's exact. sucks. Not sure where this goes from here, but this depiction of a trough over the Rockies with a narrow ridge in the middle, and an attempt at a meridional link up in the E is very suspect. Particularly when the whole thing is progressive while its doing so? Those earlier UKMET and GFS runs were fun...perhaps even plausible, but when too many thing have to be perfect that's asking a lot for D4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I made a joke out of it in that early post but this is pretty much what I thought would happen. Gist: fun runs collapse a bit... It's exact. sucks. Not sure where this goes from here, but this depiction of a trough over the Rockies with a narrow ridge in the middle, and an attempt at a meridional link up in the E is very suspect. Particularly when the whole thing is progressive while its doing so? Those earlier UKMET and GFS runs were fun...perhaps even plausible, but when too many thing have to be perfect that's asking a lot for D4.5 I am sick of pressing my nose against the window looking at the floodlight trying to manufacture fantasy dendrites out of putrid airmasses and poorly amplified, shredded vorticies that somehow defy logic and deamplify as they approach the coast. I have hope for this system, especially since after this weekend things are not looking particularly wintery to say the least. At least down here, the clock is ticking, sure March features shorter wavelengths and potential cutoff s and anything can happen.............but the general vibe this winter has left me, says it better snow Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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