Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wonder if this is one of those deals where individual details may waiver but the ultimate solution does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Probably about time for the GFS to lose this event for a run or two.... which will really send you all into a tale spin until the UKMET comes out... It will show a bit of a relaxed look compared to its 12z run, but not as bad as the GFS. The Euro then comes out and it agrees with the GGEM that nothing will happen beyond it's 12z run. Then all the Mets still awake will come out of the woodwork to inform everyone that the operational runs are the weak outliers compared to ensemble members. Meanwhile, the NOGAPS has a historic blizzard but no one took the time to check... So everyone wakes up with a dry mouth. The 12z cycle rolls around and the GFS is even worse and that's really when the eat-crow claimers start trolling... But then it happens, the ECMWF comes way back NW ...not quite to the same panache as these earlier GFS runs, but enough... 18z's GFS tomorrow is a 24" menace from DC to BOS. Gaeity returns to the forum. People who normally don't like certain people act live lovers. 00z tomorrow night, all models on board. AFDs start hoisting specials over night, and by dawn there are 3rd and 4th period watches flying with hard hitting headlines. Storm then goes out to sea - the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Seems like the gfs is still going to have a good storm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think it will phase...but the question is how late it does it and how much...meaning I don't expect a flat Euro solution on this. Yeah, sorry, I was thinking unlikely to phase in the OV where it has been and been favorable for us. Don't know why I didn't say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think it will phase...but the question is how late it does it and how much...meaning I don't expect a flat Euro solution on this. GFS dumped the s/w it had diving into the ID/ND area around 50 hours...Euro had it too. Much weaker this run. The three main s/w's are actually in pretty good alignment for a phase.....similar outcome but different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, sorry, I was thinking unlikely to phase in the OV where it has been ...favorable for us. Don't know why I didn't say that Yeah its starting to phase at 57 hours...but if its only a partial phase, it could whiff us. Regardless of what this run does, it doesn't mean too much yet. I think seeing what the other global guidance does and the ensembles will certainly tip us to which way its heading. OTS and flat has always been the bigger risk here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, sorry, I was thinking unlikely to phase in the OV where it has been and been favorable for us. Don't know why I didn't say that Rock wit you cawk out. Special run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm out to hr60. Kinda interesting how the s/w diving down the Rockies has been slower, and diving in behind the southern energy. That's leaving it a little less amplified, and lagged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's also got the ridge axis a little farther east across the MT/ND border, but very energetic still with srn stream. That sets off good cyclogenesis along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah its starting to phase at 57 hours...but if its only a partial phase, it could whiff us. Regardless of what this run does, it doesn't mean too much yet. I think seeing what the other global guidance does and the ensembles will certainly tip us to which way its heading. OTS and flat has always been the bigger risk here. Northern stream still leading the rest at hr66. But it's close At hr72, starting to lift out. Never a full phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's also got the ridge axis a little farther east across the MT/ND border, but very energetic still with srn stream. That sets off good cyclogenesis along the gulf coast. It does but it's still going to be a tough turn. It's E and SE of the earlier runs through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Probably about time for the GFS to lose this event for a run or two.... which will really send you all into a tale spin until the UKMET comes out... It will show a bit of a relaxed look compared to its 12z run, but not as bad as the GFS. The Euro then comes out and it agrees with the GGEM that nothing will happen beyond it's 12z run. Then all the Mets still awake will come out of the woodwork to inform everyone that the operational runs are the weak outliers compared to ensemble members. Meanwhile, the NOGAPS has a historic blizzard but no one took the time to check... So everyone wakes up with a dry mouth. The 12z cycle rolls around and the GFS is even worse and that's really when the eat-crow claimers start trolling... But then it happens, the ECMWF comes way back NW ...not quite to the same panache as these earlier GFS runs, but enough... 18z's GFS tomorrow is a 24" menace from DC to BOS. Gaeity returns to the forum. People who normally don't like certain people act live lovers. 00z tomorrow night, all models on board. AFDs start hoisting specials over night, and by dawn there are 3rd and 4th period watches flying with hard hitting headlines. Storm then goes out to sea - the end. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This might be a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Pretty much all srn stream here. Snow gets to SNH by hr 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This might be a scraper. It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Pretty much all srn stream here. Snow gets to SNH by hr 90. Yeah, that's what I was saying before. We get a sort of partial phase, but the northern stream s/w then never can amplify into the southern wave and slow, so it lifts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 right on schedule...not the same appeal really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If these two models are right and we see a similar evolution to the older Euro the window is closing on getting this way west like the earlier GFS runs. That's not a surprise, just saying. It gets to a tipping point where the northern system outruns the southern stream by so much (beacause the northern is weaker) there's a wall. The trend on both was to move to the Euro handling on those critical features, happened very early in the run so I don't think we can expect a change back the other way unless NCEP finds an error. It's weird because the NCEP models were fine in the early stages today but something propogated out after 6-12 hours carrying some oddities. 0z GFS/NAM don't seem unreasonable to me, gettting this up to the BM is going to be a tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nice hit for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 earthlight saying this goes directly over the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't usually post on this forum, but this made my night! Classic! Probably about time for the GFS to lose this event for a run or two.... which will really send you all into a tale spin until the UKMET comes out... It will show a bit of a relaxed look compared to its 12z run, but not as bad as the GFS. The Euro then comes out and it agrees with the GGEM that nothing will happen beyond it's 12z run. Then all the Mets still awake will come out of the woodwork to inform everyone that the operational runs are the weak outliers compared to ensemble members. Meanwhile, the NOGAPS has a historic blizzard but no one took the time to check... So everyone wakes up with a dry mouth. The 12z cycle rolls around and the GFS is even worse and that's really when the eat-crow claimers start trolling... But then it happens, the ECMWF comes way back NW ...not quite to the same panache as these earlier GFS runs, but enough... 18z's GFS tomorrow is a 24" menace from DC to BOS. Gaeity returns to the forum. People who normally don't like certain people act live lovers. 00z tomorrow night, all models on board. AFDs start hoisting specials over night, and by dawn there are 3rd and 4th period watches flying with hard hitting headlines. Storm then goes out to sea - the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What a surprise- a near total miss for Canada. Toronto's snow drought looks to continue. This city has not see a major snowfall in a few years now and is on track for one of the most snow free winters of the past century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 earthlight saying this goes directly over the bm. Nah, its about 100 miles due south of the BM at 96 hours...its close, but def south. If it was over the BM, most of SNE would be getting hammered. Its a typical scraper track where the south coast and the Cape get hit the hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nice hit for the Cape. Phil has the best shot pretty clearly. The question will be does this do what the last one did and end up kind of far SE (like 200-300 miles SE of the BM). I think it's got a good shot of getting close to the BM...at least enough to give him a good poke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Probably about time for the GFS to lose this event for a run or two.... which will really send you all into a tale spin until the UKMET comes out... It will show a bit of a relaxed look compared to its 12z run, but not as bad as the GFS. The Euro then comes out and it agrees with the GGEM that nothing will happen beyond it's 12z run. Then all the Mets still awake will come out of the woodwork to inform everyone that the operational runs are the weak outliers compared to ensemble members. Meanwhile, the NOGAPS has a historic blizzard but no one took the time to check... So everyone wakes up with a dry mouth. The 12z cycle rolls around and the GFS is even worse and that's really when the eat-crow claimers start trolling... But then it happens, the ECMWF comes way back NW ...not quite to the same panache as these earlier GFS runs, but enough... 18z's GFS tomorrow is a 24" menace from DC to BOS. Gaeity returns to the forum. People who normally don't like certain people act live lovers. 00z tomorrow night, all models on board. AFDs start hoisting specials over night, and by dawn there are 3rd and 4th period watches flying with hard hitting headlines. Storm then goes out to sea - the end. Put so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's a tough interaction with all the s/w's so it goes to show you how tough it is, to get those earlier GFS runs. Even after all the guidance comes in, it really wouldn't change my opinion one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Towson Tiger Trampler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 3/4 precip all snow for me, running to the bank and locking it up. Hired best security in town, 2 crackheads thinking they are protecting Fort Knox. Boyare they going to beissed when I pay them in sno icecream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Towson Tiger Trampler If you like 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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