Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How is it handling the southern stream comparedb to earlier? Faster north, slower south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 umm, NO 1.8" and 0 visibility at 84 hrs with snow http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kbwi.txt Good spot to be in bro, better than DC verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Revision 1 OMG this is beyond awesome. Great job Jayhawk ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 How is it handling the southern stream comparedb to earlier? Faster, and more amplified. There is a more complete phase with the s/w diving down the east side of the Rockies. JUICY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not sure if anyone from the 1st topic on this storm posted this, don't have the time to go through that. From the HPC after all the 12z models came in: ..SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FRI-SAT... Sure you can blame the 12z run on bad initialization but are they calling that flag on the monster 0z hit from last night also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good spot to be in bro, better than DC verbatim. that's what I thought until I looked at DCA!; they're under heavier band http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How is it handling the southern stream comparedb to earlier? Unfortunately a bit slower. Faster, and more amplified. There is a more complete phase with the s/w diving down the east side of the Rockies. JUICY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I lol'dAnyway, hopefully someone gets heaps of snow...us or the MA, or in between...Thanks Sam and Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol are we all looking at the same NAM ?? At least Ginx and I are on the same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sure you can blame the 12z run on bad initialization but are they calling that flag on the monster 0z hit from last night also? Here is what they said concerning the 0z runs of last night, looks like no in-depth reason except they just went with the EURO: ..SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST DAY 3... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS IMPULSE. THE GFS IS NORTH OF THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. WILL RELY ON THE CONSISTENT ECMWF AT THIS POINT...AS BROADLY SUPPORTED BY THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 that's what I thought until I looked at DCA!; they're under heavier band http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt Sweet, seeing an Arctic N Stream come across my hood reminds me of Jan 05 and Walts famous AFD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol are we all looking at the same NAM ?? At least Ginx and I are on the same page GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I thought the nam looked way better was wondering the same thing lol are we all looking at the same NAM ?? At least Ginx and I are on the same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol are we all looking at the same NAM ?? At least Ginx and I are on the same page Oops...I meant the first part of the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not sure if anyone from the 1st topic on this storm posted this, don't have the time to go through that. From the HPC after all the 12z models came in: ..SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FRI-SAT... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF...WHILE THE UKMET IS SLOW AND AMPLIFIED...WITH ITS GREATER AMPLIFICATION POSSIBLY AN INDICATION OF ITS STRONG BIAS AT LATER TIME FRAMES. THUS...THE UKMET IS DISCOUNTED. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...WHILE PLAUSIBLE...IS CONSIDERED LESS LIKELY THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS NARROWER DATA ASSIMILATION WINDOW AND ULTIMATELY QUESTIONABLE INITIALIZATION PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES. (http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd) In my advanced forecasting class, my professor discussed this storm, one main issue with the 12z GFS was the longwave and how short and funky it was, he claims that the atmosphere is uncomfortable when you have a short/funky longwave. He also discussed the issues concerning the cut off low in the southwest and how bad the models do trying to predict the energy coming out of it. After over 30 years of experience, he is not sold on this storm. To him too many issues. To me, the GFS is trying to phase, when it is not phase until later. Not buying it, and until otherwise (aka, a high pressure is in Southern Canada - Ontario or Quebec), no big storm for us. The issue here isn't what's coming out of the SW feature - it gets ejected en mass in all operational runs and the majority of their respective ensemble members. If that kind of uncertainty were in play, you'd have a variety of sheared solutions ...some leaving much behind. This strictly is related to the degree of phasing with the northern stream after the fact; the difference is either flatter wave that is pure southern stream that rolls out way S vs. get pulled N during phase. This latter concern is the uncertainty in the forecast, not so much the handling of the SW feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS That might explain that then lol oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol are we all looking at the same NAM ?? At least Ginx and I are on the same page That's good news, thought I was having #linsanity issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol are we all looking at the same NAM ?? At least Ginx and I are on the same page I try not to look at the NAM outside of about 18-24 hours. The GFS has the changes noted above, and it's also muting out the intermediate s/w between the main complex in the north and the southwest s/w. This was the one prominently featured on the big GFS storm runs, but lacking on the GGEM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol are we all looking at the same NAM ?? At least Ginx and I are on the same page I was referring to the 00ZGFS. Yes, I agree the southern stream was slower on the 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 k clarification: NAM looks great. And I don't have the GFS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol are we all looking at the same NAM ?? At least Ginx and I are on the same page He was talking about the gfs I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That might explain that then lol oops I thought you were saying the new GFS was looking good...did you mean the NAM? Cuz messenger was saying it wasn't looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I was referring to the 00ZGFS. Yes, I agree the southern stream was slower on the 00Z NAM. No it isn't. The 00z NAM southern stream is faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the southern stream at 33 hours does looka bit faster than the 18z run, but the northern stream is also faster and so it may have a hard time phasing them like it did at 18z...not that it would be a surprise because that was the most northwest amped solution we've seen on operational guidance thus far...it would be natural to come back to the pack a bit. The question is potentially where the other guidance meets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 He was talking about the gfs I believe. Correct...at least relating to my original question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I dont think this will be as amped as 18z but closer to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the southern stream at 33 hours does looka bit faster than the 18z run, but the northern stream is also faster and so it may have a hard time phasing them like it did at 18z...not that it would be a surprise because that was the most northwest amped solution we've seen on operational guidance thus far...it would be natural to come back to the pack a bit. The question is potentially where the other guidance meets it. I don't see that there's any way it's similar to the 18z. Too out of phase even very early on. Heading the other direction from the extreme of earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 For the 00z GFS: At hr33, the vort lobe is faster, and unlikely to phase with the southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's almost expected that the GFS settles down a bit on this run. I don't think that is any bit of a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 For the 00z GFS: At hr33, the vort lobe is faster, and unlikely to phase with the southern energy. I think it will phase...but the question is how late it does it and how much...meaning I don't expect a flat Euro solution on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.