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2/19 East Coast Winter Storm Threat (Part 2)


OKpowdah

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NAM actually did come a touch north since it weaken the confluence over New England/Nova Scotia...but it's not even close to enough. Scraps the south coast/Nantucket with some qpf.

It looks like its north as far as getting qpf to the south coast/Nantucket...but south with the meaningful qpf in MD. Although it doesn't looks like any qpf actually makes it to the south coast but I could be wrong.

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What the NAM is doing is slowing the northern lobe of vorticity that's moving through the TN Valley. It speeds up the initial impulse so like Phil said, it dumbells a bit, sagging around DC but gets lifted north a bit more by the delayed SW etc.

It's plausible. If we were going to get hit on the coast that's how it'd have to happen. Euro is slower with both features, NAM moved slower with the 2nd piece, faster with the first. One's right, one is very wrong...I'll take the odds on favorite for now. But will be interesting to see ye old late data.

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move it north 50 to 75 miles and everyone around here would very happy but every knows that model isnt even close to what is going to happen..

This pattern sucks now. It's neither nice nor snowy. 50 and yuck blows. This winter is a train wreck it really is.

Did Bastardi really say go with the JMA btw?

CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif

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move it north 50 to 75 miles and everyone around here would very happy but every knows that model isnt even close to what is going to happen..

Forecasts should be about 95% based on the Euro down south. GFS/NAM are garbage. 18z GFS started to handle the s/w complex much more like the Euro. It's pulled the trailing sw NE by quite a bit and I suspect in the later run tonight will show they really don't "phase" but are two disjointed lobes of energy...again like the Euro.

GFS went strongly that way at 18z. If this was us under the gun, the red flags would be flying and the weenies be buggin'.

Not going to be pretty tonight.

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move it north 50 to 75 miles and everyone around here would very happy but every knows that model isnt even close to what is going to happen..

Not that it matters, but QPF graphics on that JMA are extremely misleading if you are used to the NCEP ones... dark blue is less than 0.25". Purple is only a half an inch. On NCEP that dark blue is 0.5+.

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