Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The main point of the post was to illustrate the point that at 36 hours, the Euro was already hundreds of miles farther south and east..and progressive..with the northern stream feature. Cool but the flip flopping of it looks like the Euro, it looks like the GFS is aggravating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 With this many s/w in the flow, this far out in time early analysis is fairly futile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The main point of the post was to illustrate the point that at 36 hours, the Euro was already hundreds of miles farther south and east..and progressive..with the northern stream feature. True, and the Euro is a few hundred miles further NE over the Baja region. The NAM is burying the system deep. I just don't buy the NAM solution outside of the first 12-18 hours..in that time it dumped even what it was doing at 18z in terms of the first feature coming down into the Dakotas. Later it's weaker at 48 than it was earlier...and the Euro solution had a weaker northern component. Overall I'm not saying the outcome is identical by any means, but we're seeing a shift away from the earlier solution. EDIT Point being at 50-60 the euro had another s/w diving towards Idaho..NAM doesn't see that at all...instead has ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Comparing 48 hours on the 0z NAM to 54 hours on the 18z GFS, the western shortwave looks to be much further north on the NAM...above Edmonton, whereas the GFS has it diving into Montana. The NAM may have trended some but it's still a far cry from the GFS in its handling of this part of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cool but the flip flopping of it looks like the Euro, it looks like the GFS is aggravating. It's got similar handling to the Euro in the upper MS valley at 54h, but at the same time look over MT. There's no kicker at all on the NAM, has ridging in that area. Kind of surprised we're still seeing this much model diversity but we may not feel that way at 1am afte rthe full suite is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Timing is everything. I almost feel like the NAM is going to leave the southern wave behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 When has the euro been so far off consensus before? The euro and gfs seem to be the two extremes right now...the most used models. Odd. Didn't this happen one time last winter. I seem to remember Matt Noyes throwing a nutty on his livestream about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Timing is everything. I almost feel like the NAM is going to leave the southern wave behind. The NAM does look similar to the GFS in its handling of the energy near Hudson Bay...it enters the picture far enough west so that it can phase into the southern stream shortwave. That could be key as well in getting a more explosive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00Z NAM... Northern energy looks to be trending slower while southern stream is trending a bit more east with each model run. SLOWLY trending to a phase-type solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know this is 3 hours old, but did you ever see BOX toss a model run like they did the GFS earlier this evening? ONE CAUTION WITH THE GFS...IT HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING THIS SYSTEM WITH EACH RUN SO HAVE ZERO CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL AT ALL. Did CT Blizz write that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z nam has some light snow unrelated to the system for SNE at hour 72-75. Overall looks better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Moving off the coast of NC at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z nam has some light snow unrelated to the system for SNE at hour 72-75. Overall looks better than 18z. That's one feature which is typical for our biggest bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z nam has some light snow unrelated to the system for SNE at hour 72-75. Overall looks better than 18z. That's all northern stream driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Timing is everything. I almost feel like the NAM is going to leave the southern wave behind. its the nam but you'll be able to tell on the GFS very early too. Without the m/l sw tightening for a bit as it approaches the Dakotas Thursday the entire complex is able to sneak forward too much, as a result by the time everything starts riding towards the MS Valley the trough is top heavy and there's no way to get the southern s/w up here. The middle s/w is smashed this run too, but that's a function of the lack of strength in Canada. It's a big move towards the Euro. I'm sure there will still be more compromise in later models tonight, but that change in handling towards the Euro on that one feature which comprises the major portion of the top of the trough is troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's all northern stream driven. Yeah. Nam gets snow to slightly N of BWI, close to the Jersey coast before sliding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Didn't this happen one time last winter. I seem to remember Matt Noyes throwing a nutty on his livestream about it... That was either last winter or the one before, do you remember which model ended being closest to the solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Environment Canada still calling for sunny skies in both Toronto and Ottawa on Sunday. I am hoping that the GFS is going to win this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Slightly better handling of the numerous s/w in the pattern, just not enough of a phase to dig the trough enough to bring it northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That was either last winter or the one before, do you remember which model ended being closest to the solution? Boxing Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 jan 21 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah. Nam gets snow to slightly N of BWI, close to the Jersey coast before sliding east. Actually its probably raining at BWI at 12z Sunday despite a good chunk of the profile below freezinf above the surface. Shows how crappy the airmass is down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 People need to remember it's the NAM, probably the absolute worst model we have with 500mb features. Wait for the GFS etc. NAM verbatim is a close miss for the Cape...but likely a miss nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That was either last winter or the one before, do you remember which model ended being closest to the solution? I can't remember the event. It was def. last winter... maybe in Jan?Anyway, NAM looked a little better for the MA folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 jan 21 2011 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 People need to remember it's the NAM, probably the absolute worst model we have with 500mb features. Wait for the GFS etc. NAM verbatim is a close miss for the Cape...but likely a miss nonetheless. Lets just say I wouldn't put all my eggs in the NAM basket at 84h out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 On my phone, so can't compare s/w handling that well, but the system is juuuiiiccccyyyy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lets just say I wouldn't put all my eggs in the NAM basket at 84h out... Very true, but JMHO it loses what it takes to make a huge GFS type bomb very early in the run...inside of 12-24 hours. So we'll see how others handle it. Doesn't mean we can't have something else...I think we all realized the GFS was the far left outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On my phone, so can't compare s/w handling that well, but the system is juuuiiiccccyyyy! Sultan will need to go to DC to sandbag the Potomac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Very true, but JMHO it loses what it takes to make a huge GFS type bomb very early in the run...inside of 12-24 hours. So we'll see how others handle it. Doesn't mean we can't have something else...I think we all realized the GFS was the far left outlier. Yeah we all should know that by now. Without extreme phasing of the many s/w in the pattern, a gfs-esque solution won't play out. Still very possible for SNE to get into the action however. I'm actually anxious to see what the gfs says here at 0z. If its still insisting on an ultra phased solution, we are probably going to have to really get down to the nitty gritty of how it's handling everything and whether there any validity to it. But, that all remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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