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2/19 East Coast Winter Storm Threat (Part 2)


OKpowdah

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funny jumping into some of the other regional threads. i so rarely move into other sub-forums...but the same kind of personalities are in each one.

i wouldn't want to be in DC or BWI right now...just feel like those spots are going to get screwed....hopefully for them it sneaks far enough north.

Just my view as someone who is looking at that area, there is a big snow gradient potential near DC. They are riding the edge right now. I certainly wouldn't jump for joy with the NAM.

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Temps would/will be marginal at best. Just like last weekend, without the heavier echoes, you are left with slop.

This is not last weekend though. Last weekend was always a dead ratter. It was an open wave, lacking the mechanisms for any good banding. This storm is different. That deformation field reaches the south coast, and boom, there'll be a stripe of moderate accumulations

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This is not last weekend though. Last weekend was always a dead ratter. It was an open wave, lacking the mechanisms for any good banding. This storm is different. That deformation field reaches the south coast, and boom, there'll be a stripe of moderate accumulations

Let's pull a 2/7/03....lol...

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This is not last weekend though. Last weekend was always a dead ratter. It was an open wave, lacking the mechanisms for any good banding. This storm is different. That deformation field reaches the south coast, and boom, there'll be a stripe of moderate accumulations

I'm really surprised by how much difficulty at least the NCEP models are having with this "system."

Look at the s/w's involved, new ones that were on the maps days ago but vanished are back. It's going to be a very close call I think and if the 'trends' were to continue this would get southern areas. JMHO.

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Yeah the southern areas shouldnt write this off yet im still even holding out hope not much but we seen this before

I'm really surprised by how much difficulty at least the NCEP models are having with this "system."

Look at the s/w's involved, new ones that were on the maps days ago but vanished are back. It's going to be a very close call I think and if the 'trends' were to continue this would get southern areas. JMHO.

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if you factor out weds GFS hiccup and a few gfs / sref ens members here and there...this storm has been remarkably well forecast by guidance. it has basically been shown to go ENE from the OBX for 5 days now. sure variations here and there, but this wasn't ever one of those guys where we had big day-to-day fluctuations between op runs.

and of course...euro ftw with consistency.

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if you factor out weds GFS hiccup and a few gfs / sref ens members here and there...this storm has been remarkably well forecast by guidance. it has basically been shown to go ENE from the OBX for 5 days now. sure variations here and there, but this wasn't ever one of those guys where we had big day-to-day fluctuations between op runs.

and of course...euro ftw with consistency.

yes it has

It is beginning to become clear (at least I think) that the southern anomaly (as suggested by the guidance) is weaker and shallower than earlier progged, and will also be weakened substantially by latent heat release/strong diabatic processes as it passes near the GOM. In many ways it is a double whammy with both northern stream influence affecting upper height field processes/low level advective processes as well as a weaker southern anomaly which will prevent more vigorous warm sector advection as this system traverses the SE.

Tropo heights on the 18Z GFS look unimpressive, so I would have to think SNE/NYC are nearly completely out of the picture here. VA and farther S locations will have to watch and see what type of height falls there are as there will be a "late to the party" CCB given the positive tilt nature of this system (i.e., this storm will be dependent upon low level height falls for profile cooling).

i hope this goes back to hammering North carolina....winston salem to cary like it showed a week ago

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if you factor out weds GFS hiccup and a few gfs / sref ens members here and there...this storm has been remarkably well forecast by guidance. it has basically been shown to go ENE from the OBX for 5 days now. sure variations here and there, but this wasn't ever one of those guys where we had big day-to-day fluctuations between op runs.

and of course...euro ftw with consistency.

King.

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South coast shouldn't write this off yet. Seemingly this wants to come just far enough north to drop snow on the beaches.

will let you know if it happens here, grounds warm again (all my daffodils are up) gonna be hard to get anything to stick

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