weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 in the FWIW department CMC RGEM appears to deliver several inches of snow Saturday night along and just north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Moonshine production going to be effected. Prices could skyrocket. Or maple syrup production. Who ever does get some good snow deserves it this winter. I wish it were us, but that doesn't appear to be in the cards this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 South coast shouldn't write this off yet. Seemingly this wants to come just far enough north to drop snow on the beaches. Temps would/will be marginal at best. Just like last weekend, without the heavier echoes, you are left with slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 funny jumping into some of the other regional threads. i so rarely move into other sub-forums...but the same kind of personalities are in each one. i wouldn't want to be in DC or BWI right now...just feel like those spots are going to get screwed....hopefully for them it sneaks far enough north. Just my view as someone who is looking at that area, there is a big snow gradient potential near DC. They are riding the edge right now. I certainly wouldn't jump for joy with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temps would/will be marginal at best. Just like last weekend, without the heavier echoes, you are left with slop. This is not last weekend though. Last weekend was always a dead ratter. It was an open wave, lacking the mechanisms for any good banding. This storm is different. That deformation field reaches the south coast, and boom, there'll be a stripe of moderate accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is not last weekend though. Last weekend was always a dead ratter. It was an open wave, lacking the mechanisms for any good banding. This storm is different. That deformation field reaches the south coast, and boom, there'll be a stripe of moderate accumulations Let's pull a 2/7/03....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let's pull a 2/7/03....lol... Man would I give for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 BOS gets more sat night than DC gets sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is not last weekend though. Last weekend was always a dead ratter. It was an open wave, lacking the mechanisms for any good banding. This storm is different. That deformation field reaches the south coast, and boom, there'll be a stripe of moderate accumulations I'm really surprised by how much difficulty at least the NCEP models are having with this "system." Look at the s/w's involved, new ones that were on the maps days ago but vanished are back. It's going to be a very close call I think and if the 'trends' were to continue this would get southern areas. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Saturday night deal is weird. Kind of windex-like. Flash freeze stuff with marginal boundary layer in lower elevations at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 BOS gets more sat night than DC gets sun? I would bet that all day that DC wins, and not just because i live in the area. I live 60 miles from DC so i will probably end up in the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 BOS gets more sat night than DC gets sun? Sneaky little piece of energy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah the southern areas shouldnt write this off yet im still even holding out hope not much but we seen this before I'm really surprised by how much difficulty at least the NCEP models are having with this "system." Look at the s/w's involved, new ones that were on the maps days ago but vanished are back. It's going to be a very close call I think and if the 'trends' were to continue this would get southern areas. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would bet that all day that DC wins, and not just because i live in the area. I live 60 miles from DC so i will probably end up in the screw zone. LOL..that didn't take long for someone from down there to catch that post..damn. it was more in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LOL..that didn't take long for someone from down there to catch that post..damn. it was more in jest. I read all the sub forums all winter long. It is fun to see the different personalities, i figured you were kidding. Although with the new GFS you may be right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 New thread for the snow potential tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I read all the sub forums all winter long. It is fun to see the different personalities, i figured you were kidding. Although with the new GFS you may be right . Bastardi says it's convective feedback, DC still gets buried. Convective feedback is right up there with MJO, and that stratospheric warming crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We've got 60 hours to move the GFS north 500 miles. Great winter. I hate squirrels now and I blame Jerry for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 if you factor out weds GFS hiccup and a few gfs / sref ens members here and there...this storm has been remarkably well forecast by guidance. it has basically been shown to go ENE from the OBX for 5 days now. sure variations here and there, but this wasn't ever one of those guys where we had big day-to-day fluctuations between op runs. and of course...euro ftw with consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 if you factor out weds GFS hiccup and a few gfs / sref ens members here and there...this storm has been remarkably well forecast by guidance. it has basically been shown to go ENE from the OBX for 5 days now. sure variations here and there, but this wasn't ever one of those guys where we had big day-to-day fluctuations between op runs. and of course...euro ftw with consistency. yes it has It is beginning to become clear (at least I think) that the southern anomaly (as suggested by the guidance) is weaker and shallower than earlier progged, and will also be weakened substantially by latent heat release/strong diabatic processes as it passes near the GOM. In many ways it is a double whammy with both northern stream influence affecting upper height field processes/low level advective processes as well as a weaker southern anomaly which will prevent more vigorous warm sector advection as this system traverses the SE. Tropo heights on the 18Z GFS look unimpressive, so I would have to think SNE/NYC are nearly completely out of the picture here. VA and farther S locations will have to watch and see what type of height falls there are as there will be a "late to the party" CCB given the positive tilt nature of this system (i.e., this storm will be dependent upon low level height falls for profile cooling). i hope this goes back to hammering North carolina....winston salem to cary like it showed a week ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 if you factor out weds GFS hiccup and a few gfs / sref ens members here and there...this storm has been remarkably well forecast by guidance. it has basically been shown to go ENE from the OBX for 5 days now. sure variations here and there, but this wasn't ever one of those guys where we had big day-to-day fluctuations between op runs. and of course...euro ftw with consistency. King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Amazing on the Euro-wow. I'm hoping for the best for the VA crew, but given that everything's underperformed this year, wouldnt surprise me to see some busts down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 King. ha. nice find joe. that's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the southern stream trending weaker (as modeled) which barolonic instability noted last evening is interesting to me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Man would I give for that. 2/27/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 2/27/10 That still was a cool storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 lol, I thought you were dead? Ghost from the grave. I came back to give winter one more shot, but I suppose after this weekend it's back down with the worms I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 South coast shouldn't write this off yet. Seemingly this wants to come just far enough north to drop snow on the beaches. will let you know if it happens here, grounds warm again (all my daffodils are up) gonna be hard to get anything to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nothing about this storm interests me. In a normal year we all would have stopped watching it a day or two ago but this year...it's all we've got. realistically the odds the models move this north the few hundred miles to scrape the south coast are probably about 1 or 2%....it's locked pretty well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.