ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Its def gonna come a good deal north than 18z I think...again, I think we're a lost cause, but it will prob be good for the M.A. That northern stream running out ahead like that give it a better chance to produce a light snowfall here with less wave interference. NAM has a band of light snow moving across here for Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like I'm going to win my bets with Mark and Jeff. Never bet snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Its def gonna come a good deal north than 18z I think...again, I think we're a lost cause, but it will prob be good for the M.A. That northern stream running out ahead like that give it a better chance to produce a light snowfall here with less wave interference. NAM has a band of light snow moving across here for Sat night. Be interesting to see how the others play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It still amazes me that a low in Louisiana could miss that far to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It still amazes me that a low in Louisiana could miss that far to the south. Looking at the 66HR panel on the NAm, I'm not so sure it's going to miss us H5 setup looks pretty good We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looking at the 66HR panel on the NAm, I'm not so sure it's going to miss us H5 setup looks pretty good We'll see Its a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like I'm going to win my bets with Mark and Jeff. Never bet snow this season. I have til next Friday to get my 15 and then we each owe the board 10. Will says it's gonna snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You'd have to produce a large body of evidence that it happens more there than anywhere else otherwise its just selective memory to me. We always notice a bit more when we just miss out. There's def some upslope enhancement anywhere you have terrain like that, but the heart of death bands is mid-level driven. You can get localized enhancement within larger areas of moderate to heavy precip. But if we are talking about bands like 1/12/11 and 10/29/11, then its all mid-level driven...there's a reason we said they could get death bands in those storms because it was sticking out like a sore thumb on the 700mb charts. We didn't call for death bands there in Dec 2009 or 1/27/11. They got porked in Feb 2006 too when Springfield to Hartford was getting 20-25 inches of snow and they got 3-6"...crazy gradient just to their east. Those are the 2 deathbands I've had in the 4 winters I've lived up here. In lots of other storms I feel like everyone else does better. We get our high seasonal totals from some big events but more small events that rain or mix down ya'lls way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Its a whiff Yeah. I like the trends on the NAM. This is close to being something good, albeit not what the GFS depicted yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Maybe someone can get a burst of S or S+ on Sat night from the northern stream vortmax...that's pretty nice looking sounding at 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That was really close to something much different. We're short one more piece of energy diving in at the right time. It's just the NAM, but that's a pretty huge shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Do we think we'll see various forms of this northward move on the rest of the model suite? New ingestion of drop sondes? Nam out on a limb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I highly doubt it can get far enough north to get us with that first northern stream shortwave out of the picture for phasing possibilities. It just creates too much confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Maybe someone can get a burst of S or S+ on Sat night from the northern stream vortmax...that's pretty nice looking sounding at 51 hours. Yeah, I mentioned that yesterday when the models had that over our area here that we could get some light snow on sunday from the northern stream energy looks like it has shifted further south today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I highly doubt it can get far enough north to get us with that first northern stream shortwave out of the picture for phasing possibilities. It just creates too much confluence. It's gone for us most likely. Maybe the Cape can get scraped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, I mentioned that yesterday when the models had that over our area here that we could get some light snow on sunday from the northern stream energy looks like it has shifted further south today All guidance is spitting out some qpf from that including the Euro...there def could be a band of steady snow that moves through. It almost looks windex-y with the extremely steep ML lapse rates so there could be some bursts of heavier snow if it comes together...but regardless there should be some flakes from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 All guidance is spitting out some qpf from that including the Euro...there def could be a band of steady snow that moves through. It almost looks windex-y with the extremely steep ML lapse rates so there could be some bursts of heavier snow if it comes together...but regardless there should be some flakes from that. Yeah that's the big middle finger for us going through the region. How ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Now it's something to at least watch again. The initial trajectory out of the Gulf would have it come right up over SNE, but by WV the precip begins to arc more ENE and misses. Close though...be kind of shocking if all the models now shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 continuing to see notable adjustments to the handling of the multitude of s/w's in the flow. This isn't over yet. Not suggesting any certain outcome, but we'll probably see a good ten or fifteen starkly different solutions before this is settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 All guidance is spitting out some qpf from that including the Euro...there def could be a band of steady snow that moves through. It almost looks windex-y with the extremely steep ML lapse rates so there could be some bursts of heavier snow if it comes together...but regardless there should be some flakes from that. Its kind of like getting sprinkled with a few crumbs when the main course is an arms length away, My thought was you guys had a fair shot at this one or getting scraped at worst but to have a failure like this is only par for the course this winter, Its just not meant to be and the time is ticking away on the rest of the season as we are getting long into feb heading into march which has not been friendly for winter precip over the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Started getting a little excited when catching up 2 pages back only to end up with the SOS different day. Yes Sam it's ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Started getting a little excited when catching up 2 pages back only to end up with the SOS different day. Yes Sam it's ovah. OVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's over I think, Sam. I mean look at the flow in Canada. It's constantly from the NW. Sure one shortwave moves about, but another one comes right in, with that flow. In the back of my mind, I'm reminded by previous behavior with these and the tick north in the final 48 hrs, but the flow just doesn't seem that conducive for it..other than a Cape graze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's over I think, Sam. I mean look at the flow in Canada. It's constantly from the NW. Sure one shortwave moves about, but another one comes right in, with that flow. In the back of my mind, I'm reminded by previous behavior with these and the tick north in the final 48 hrs, but the flow just doesn't seem that conducive for it..other than a Cape graze. We need the flow to shift north, in addition to that lead shortwave moving out faster. Seems like a lot to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 While we miss the storm, the NAM brings in some decent snows to the orographically favored areas of WNE on Saturday night. With instability and moisture, the potential for several inches accumulating upslope exists in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 While we miss the storm, the NAM brings in some decent snows to the orographically favored areas of WNE on Saturday night. With instability and moisture, the potential for several inches accumulating upslope exists in these parts. You do realize there's about 2 and half members in here that actually gets upslope right? One's a long haired d*** and the other loves action shots of skiing. So basically you made everyone else in here feel even worse. I'm still all in. The NAM just made a S/W appear out of nowhere, so anything is possible, especially with how these models have handled this winter. I love how Will and Scott are using words and phrases like I "Think" its over and I "highly doubt" anything gets this North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 While we miss the storm, the NAM brings in some decent snows to the orographically favored areas of WNE on Saturday night. With instability and moisture, the potential for several inches accumulating upslope exists in these parts. Yea that does look nice if the NAM is right but in words of Messenger, Viva la Noche, WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You do realize there's about 2 and half members in here that actually gets upslope right? One's a long haired d*** and the other loves action shots of skiing. So basically you made everyone else in here feel even worse. I'm still all in. The NAM just made a S/W appear out of nowhere, so anything is possible, especially with how these models have handled this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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