40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hard to believe the combo of warm and dry is as bad as it is. I just remember telling you in 10 as bad as you perceived it, it could be much worse. Now you know what I mean't. Remember I grew up in SRI, but even there this is the worst. 2010 is still up there for me, but for different reasons. This season is 100x more boring...weenies down. That season just had so many near misses of huge events...all I could do was peer through the window as others danced naked and engaged in a 200yr meterological orgy. At least this year, we're all impotent....nothing but limp, distraught innies for thousands and thousands of miles, for as far as the eye can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Its really not that big a difference...I think its just happened a couple times in the past winter to make it seem like it does more...1/12/11 and 10/29/11...I mean, remember they got porked in the 1/27/11 storm when the death band set up over Ginx/NW RI. Don't forget 12/19/09 either. The differences in average snowfall is almost all elevation driven and some upslope enhancement depending on what side of the Berkshire crest you are on. A slightly lesser phenomenon occurs in the ORH hills. Oh it's more than a couple of times. Hard to quantify offshore misses of deforms versus deforms in the interior. Of course there are southern examples where they were missed but I am not alone in noticing that deform bands are much more common in that arc than they are here. Part of the reason I believe is frictional, partly thermoclinic, and partly intensity. I need to find that Eastern post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The last time I got in the sweet spot of historic deform band was probably Dec 9, 2005....it has not happened much. Jan 2005 was just widespread 20"+ because of insane rations....the real heart of that band was a bit se of me. March 2001 was a little west of me and Jan '96 was of course se of me. I'd have to say that I def. caught it in April 1997. It just seem like I never catch the outside of it and leave a spot like ORH on the outside looking in. Jan 2011 the sweetest band was w of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hurricane 2011 season + winter 2011-2012 may be the single worst season of wx in Boston area EVER! I don't even think I got to see any legit boomers this past summer. There obviously was some rare tornado and convective events West of the metro this year...but friggin A this SUCKS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just seem like every half way decent storm, GC ends up with a 30" death zone......I have to sell my soul to the devil to pull a 20-spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Oh it's more than a couple of times. Hard to quantify offshore misses of deforms versus deforms in the interior. Of course there are southern examples where they were missed but I am not alone in noticing that deform bands are much more common in that arc than they are here. Part of the reason I believe is frictional, partly thermoclinic, and partly intensity. I need to find that Eastern post. You'd have to produce a large body of evidence that it happens more there than anywhere else otherwise its just selective memory to me. We always notice a bit more when we just miss out. There's def some upslope enhancement anywhere you have terrain like that, but the heart of death bands is mid-level driven. You can get localized enhancement within larger areas of moderate to heavy precip. But if we are talking about bands like 1/12/11 and 10/29/11, then its all mid-level driven...there's a reason we said they could get death bands in those storms because it was sticking out like a sore thumb on the 700mb charts. We didn't call for death bands there in Dec 2009 or 1/27/11. They got porked in Feb 2006 too when Springfield to Hartford was getting 20-25 inches of snow and they got 3-6"...crazy gradient just to their east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There's no question over in our area, Orange County NY always pulls deformation bands and high totals out of their ass. It could be a storm that mainly is a NYC east event yet somehow they pull out the highest total of anyone west of that line and come close to the highest one on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like I'm going to win my bets with Mark and Jeff. Never bet snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There's no question over in our area, Orange County NY always pulls deformation bands and high totals out of their ass. It could be a storm that mainly is a NYC east event yet somehow they pull out the highest total of anyone west of that line and come close to the highest one on LI. Dendrite to GC is like that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like I'm going to win my bets with Mark and Jeff. Never bet snow this season. 45 minutes to epic failure. What's a deformation band? Is that what happened when it snowed in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just seem like every half way decent storm, GC ends up with a 30" death zone......I have to sell my soul to the devil to pull a 20-spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There's no question over in our area, Orange County NY always pulls deformation bands and high totals out of their ass. It could be a storm that mainly is a NYC east event yet somehow they pull out the highest total of anyone west of that line and come close to the highest one on LI. Westchester and Rockland usually miss the death bands in major coastals and end up with 12-16" while NJ, central LI, and Orange County always seem to be ground zero for ridiculous snowfalls. I only had 13", 14.5", and 14" in the three major events last year in Dobbs Ferry, also had much less in 12/19/09 and 2/10/10 than parts of LI with moderate snowfalls in both events. Uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Westchester and Rockland usually miss the death bands in major coastals and end up with 12-16" while NJ, central LI, and Orange County always seem to be ground zero for ridiculous snowfalls. I only had 13", 14.5", and 14" in the three major events last year in Dobbs Ferry, also had much less in 12/19/09 and 2/10/10 than parts of LI with moderate snowfalls in both events. Uncanny. I grew up in northern NJ and we always were close to the jackpot with some epic events in the 1950s and 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I grew up in northern NJ and we always were close to the jackpot with some epic events in the 1950s and 60s. Yeah, 3/60 was probably huge there (and in Dobbs Ferry where 28" fell)....as well as the 60-61 events (all 18+ in Westchester, with 24" falling in the 2/61 event.) You probably made out really nicely in the late-season storms of 66-67 and 57-58 as well. Westchester did really nicely in the two March 1958 events getting like 30" down at Dobbs Ferry that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 21 srefs completely whiff everyone, northern nj >nyc>longisland and all of sne. The end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, 3/60 was probably huge there (and in Dobbs Ferry where 28" fell)....as well as the 60-61 events (all 18+ in Westchester, with 24" falling in the 2/61 event.) You probably made out really nicely in the late-season storms of 66-67 and 57-58 as well. Westchester did really nicely in the two March 1958 events getting like 30" down at Dobbs Ferry that month. I was already in college during 1966-7 but yes on 57-58. March of 1956 was epic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 21 srefs completely whiff everyone, northern nj >nyc>longisland and all of sne. The end. SREFs are old news in a situation like this. If every 0z model changed they wouldn't have trended much...would be the 3z or 9z. NAM looks different, who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM looks different, holding back the northern stream s/w a tad compared to 18z, probably won't mean much tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 SREFs are old news in a situation like this. If every 0z model changed they wouldn't have trended much...would be the 3z or 9z. NAM looks different, who cares. I think the southern vort at 30 hrs. has a meeting with one of the cartels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, 3/60 was probably huge there (and in Dobbs Ferry where 28" fell)....as well as the 60-61 events (all 18+ in Westchester, with 24" falling in the 2/61 event.) You probably made out really nicely in the late-season storms of 66-67 and 57-58 as well. Westchester did really nicely in the two March 1958 events getting like 30" down at Dobbs Ferry that month. Lived in N. Morris cty 1950-71, and we had a run of big storms that beats anything I've experienced in Maine: 3/18-18/56: 24" 2/58: 15-16" and very cold 3/21-22/58: 24" 3/3/60: 18" (1st of 4 in less than a year) 12/60: 18" (NJ deer eason opener) 1/61: 20" (the JFK inaugural storm) 2/61: 24" (Snowpack to over 40", maybe 45". Nearby loc. 47-52") 1/64: 18" 1/66: 15-18" (cheating: Baltimore blizzard while I was at Hopkins) 2/69: 18" (the Lindsay storm) No biggies in March 67, but 30"+ for the month, and 15" storms 12/24/66 and early Feb. Over 100" for the season, incl. 3" on 4/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the southern vort at 30 hrs. has a meeting with one of the cartels Hopefully it's the one who shoots snow into the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the southern vort at 30 hrs. has a meeting with one of the cartels Of most interest to me is that intermediate s/w that's disconnected from the others - that's what the old GFS was doing to an extent. Had a s/w that swung down, helped to get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nam looks crazy....the southern stream is overpowering the northern one, and looks to be waiting for a second vort to follow out to 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 00z nam looks more like the 18z gfs (not exact) than the 18z nam. I still expect a turd at 78, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, 3/60 was probably huge there (and in Dobbs Ferry where 28" fell)....as well as the 60-61 events (all 18+ in Westchester, with 24" falling in the 2/61 event.) You probably made out really nicely in the late-season storms of 66-67 and 57-58 as well. Westchester did really nicely in the two March 1958 events getting like 30" down at Dobbs Ferry that month. Where's Dobbs Ferry? Never heard you mention it before ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Havent followed the 0z nam in awhile.. Does it always come out this slowly, or, is it suffering from the same ailment that struck the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That northern stream s/w in Wisconsin is really racing out ahead much more than previous runs...that might let the stuff behind it amplify more...won't help us I don't think but perhaps our friends to the south it helps out more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That's a major change. The upper end of the "trough" is sitll a mess, but what we have down south is what the older gungho solutions had. That's going to wind up pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 juiced up low in TX? i'd be thinking OV runner, but not this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That northern stream s/w in Wisconsin is really racing out ahead much more than previous runs...that might let the stuff behind it amplify more...won't help us I don't think but perhaps our friends to the south it helps out more. Yeah, going to be tough still for us I'd think...but big improvement for those to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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