Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interestingly this happened in Alaska in December.... More than one village/town reported 15 to 20 foot monthly totals - limited melting. A zygote record - next up AYER Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 next up AYER Mass No way. no thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sounds like a personal problem Hopefully he's not slant sticking. 18z GFS is a lot slower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 some thoughts: (1) my own inexperience: I just can't believe with such potent southern stream energy emerging off NC/VA, a +NAO, a poorly positioned high pressure and weak-appearing confluence, and at least 3 pieces of energy to interact with in the northern stream, that this wouldn't track even further NW than the bomb GFS runs... I expected the Euro to flip further NW when it eventually would catch on to a phase, and I was wrong. (2)That said, I'm still holding out hope. With so many northern stream pieces of energy, we still have a slight chance at a phase to bring home a bomb. Models can shift dramatically with 48hrs to go. And as always, give me futility, or give me blockbuster. (3) the suckiness of this winter feels inescapabe: Astonishing to look back at the euphoria and confidence that most had here, including many Pros / Mets (no need to list names, but the posts are all there), Tues PM-Wed AM. This seemed to be the best signal we've had, if not one of the best synoptic setups, for a SNE snowstorm. The mood was this would be different from all the previous miraculous fails we've had, including Feb 11. Yet another miraculous fail: northern stream energy was too fast to phase, slow enough to push away the southern stream energy. (4) neweathereye = SnowNH (with an eye infection) (5) big props to Messenger, WxWatcher91, ORH, CoastalWx, TT, Snowgoose69, Ginx, Dendrite, Earthlight, CapeCodWeather and others... totally awesome analyses throughout Amazing actually, it almost looks like a strung out meh spring time LP now, nothing powerhouse about it. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This winter will go down as one with the most over analized storms that never happened. Still appreciate the learning aspect so not a total loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 next up AYER Mass No way, no thx! Funny... I didn't realize but somehow I wound up on page one of this thread, and didn't know it - so I'm reading some post about this new GFS runs having 18" of wet snow in ORH and I'm going schit, not again - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No way. no thx! I would take it in a heartbeat just to say I made it, men survive, boys cry for their Mommas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Walked into that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 does the orientation...timing....closeness of the 50/50 low have much of a say in how far north this gets? i mean in a sense of could it be tweaked from current modeling ..thus ='ing a bit more north option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS is a good hit to DC/BWI, scrapes ACK. South of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 by the way Mods next time somebody in your Mod forum says hey we need Storm Mode, tell them to go screw them-self, LOL, the new radio show Jinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No #linsanity this threat, its #whitneyd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ya i was chuckling when we had to get into 'storm mode"yesterday for something that was never really a imminent storm threat 100 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No #linsanity this threat, its #whitneyd Lol...too soon, too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol...too soon, too soon àpropos though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS is the time machine model, always about 12 hours behind everyone else. We be whiffin' on this one...smoking cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS is the time machine model, always about 12 hours behind everyone else. We be whiffin' on this one...smoking cirrus. And the next one is too warm LOL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well....to take my mind off it all...I think I'll become linsane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 And the next one is too warm LOL: of course-no cold air. DC and BWI could be in trouble with the current one too for the same reason.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 using the boxing day analog .....like cosgrove must be ? ......the nam will catch on at 315pm tommorrow ...gfs will follow suite...they''ll be toss'd aside .....and then nam/gfs will be toss'd again at 0z ...until the euro finally goes boom and tosses the hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 using the boxing day analog .....like cosgrove must be ? ......the nam will catch on at 315pm tommorrow ...gfs will follow suite...they''ll be toss'd aside .....and then nam/gfs will be toss'd again at 0z ...until the euro finally goes boom and tosses the hpc Catch up to what though, candyland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 by the way Mods next time somebody in your Mod forum says hey we need Storm Mode, tell them to go screw them-self, LOL, the new radio show Jinx You can blame the tracka hisself 4 pullin da trigga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I want so bad to wake up tomorrow to some real changes but in my heart of hearts I know its over. #Roy Orbinson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 of course-no cold air. DC and BWI could be in trouble with the current one too for the same reason.... It's amazing how the CONUS has just been totally torched this winter, especially the northern tier, which is exactly the opposite of what you expect in a La Niña winter. You have to look all the way up to the Canadian Archipelago to find the -20C 850 isotherm on most of the 18z GFS, horrible for mid-February. Could be an early spring with the way the cold seems to have permanently retreated to Asia. 12z ECM also showed a monster SE ridge developing by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ... The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result... Christ, does anyone have the energy to even care at this point? egh. just go away winter. Just go away - I could not be ready more for spring - so much so that I'll risk April to get rid of this winter. It's just ad nauseam at this point. Yet we've got 2 weeks of February and all of March...seems like April 1 was last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's amazing how the CONUS has just been totally torched this winter, especially the northern tier, which is exactly the opposite of what you expect in a La Niña winter. You have to look all the way up to the Canadian Archipelago to find the -20C 850 isotherm on most of the 18z GFS, horrible for mid-February. Could be an early spring with the way the cold seems to have permanently retreated to Asia. 12z ECM also showed a monster SE ridge developing by the end of the month. I suppose we were due. But singularly the USA outside of AK has been warm. Europe had record cold and snow. My friend's mother in Pescara, east of Rome on the Adriatic was snowbound in her home. We have bare ground in most of the country. I agree...it could be warm this spring and even summer given the dry soil that will occur unless we have a serious pattern change. That said, the Euro ensembles look pretty good for cold and potential snow. Normally I'd be optimistic but everything that could fubar a winter lover's pattern happens this year and frankly I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 posted this in futility thread... it is possible to Trace our way to spring: anyone (Will) know what happened 1924-25? 1924 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 20.7 T T T 0.0 0.0 [21.4] T for Feb-Mar-Apr 0.7 for Oct-Nov-Dec seems like trace monthly snowfall wall-to-wall for kbos except for an anomalous January 1925 with 20.7" teleconnectors that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I come back from a lousy day of cod fishing to find there seems to be little to no hope for a weekend storm time for a drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 models have grasped reality sooner this time on the one hand, our euphoria won't implode just 24 hours before the storm like Feb 11 on the other hand, we've lost even a model fantasy to track for the next 2 days... it's gonna be so f'n boring in here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's see...Boston is at 7.8" of total snow since last July 1 - I'm assuming that everything since then counts... 9" total was a 1934-1935 least snowfall record. I got to figure the way this year goes ... and how fitting it would be, that we HAVE to eek 1.3" out of some source just to maximize this butt banger journey - HAHA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.