TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM still only out to 27 Thru then precip shield down south looks a bit north and more juicy than 33 on 12z, but we shall see what the next few frames have to say. Minute differences at h5 so far except a weaker northern stream and maybe the southern wave the slightest bit slower. out to 30 now. Thru 30 it looks to me as if the storm will head a bit north of 12z, but I want to see a few more frames before making a more definitive call on that. Hard to tell since confluence looking pretty strong so far on the Canadian vortex, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thru then precip shield down south looks a bit north and more juicy than 33 on 12z, but we shall see what the next few frames have to say. Minute differences at h5 so far except a weaker northern stream and maybe the southern wave the slightest bit slower. out to 30 now. Might be farther north this run, but not much. Still early, and its the 18z nam anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 waiting for the nam isnt so bad when theres snow falling outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At this rate you may get to see the Nam and GFS run at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18Z NAM products running 31-45 min late, status updates: http://www.nco.ncep....dex.html#TARGET (as if we should still be on the edge of our seats...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah well when the science part of it fails,you have to use your gut feeling...And yesterday and today,clearly shows that the models cannot handle these short waves and how to incorporate them into the forecast...They are computer generated models,computers screw up,bad data,..I apologize if you don't like my view... I like your view. I'd like it more if it had validity beyond a wish. But you're right...things can change. However the computing power of the 12Z suite is pretty substantial albeit with moving pieces. I still think you have HSK and I reach for my rx pad every time I see your avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jerry's squirrels have eaten the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18Z NAM products running 31-45 min late, status updates: http://www.nco.ncep....dex.html#TARGET (as if we should still be on the edge of our seats...) It's more then 15 minutes. By 4:10 the whole run is usually just about out and its out to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like your view. I'd like it more if it had validity beyond a wish. But you're right...things can change. However the computing power of the 12Z suite is pretty substantial albeit with moving pieces. I still think you have HSK and I reach for my rx pad every time I see your avatar. for all those wondering... (as we wait for NAM, totally OT but "storm mode" is nominal right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 srefs are interesting. as has been the case with the gfs ensembles there are a couple of members that are really amped and NW with just about everything else completely out to sea. the result is a unique looking precip and snow prob distribution. with relatively similar looking odds for .25 and .5 precip (almost 1" as well really) over the s coast and a similarly funny looking snow probs over the MA and NE with low probs for 1, 4 and 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 sorry for my ignorance but is cosgrove a very reliable met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's more then 15 minutes. By 4:10 the whole run is usually just about out and its out to 36. check the updates now "46-60 min late"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 sorry for my ignorance but is cosgrove a very reliable met If being wrong is reliable then yes he most certainly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 for all those wondering... (as we wait for NAM, totally OT but "storm mode" is nominal right now) Not any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 srefs are interesting. as has been the case with the gfs ensembles there are a couple of members that are really amped and NW with just about everything else completely out to sea. the result is a unique looking precip and snow prob distribution. with relatively similar looking odds for .25 and .5 precip (almost 1" as well really) over the s coast and a similarly funny looking snow probs over the MA and NE with low probs for 1, 4 and 8" Yeah, it really shows the two outliers even looking at the snowfall prob map. For instance, NW NJ only has slightly higher probs for 1" then 4" and 8" as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 for all those wondering... (as we wait for NAM, totally OT but "storm mode" is nominal right now) Fabulous!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If being wrong is reliable then yes he most certainly is. awesome so he is along the lines of a accuweather henry margusity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, it really shows the two outliers even looking at the snowfall prob map. For instance, NW NJ only has slightly higher probs for 1" then 4" and 8" as you mentioned. yeah it's not too often you see low 1" probs and low 4" probs in the same area like that - usually it's the 80% vs 40% vs 10% type of distribution. but does happen sometimes in situations like this with a big model split. you end up with a couple of models running the whole show so-to-speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 awesome so he is along the lines of a accuweather henry margusity Not as bad as him but he has been wrong alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z nam out to 54 now, doesn't look much different then 12z. Out to 60: definitely going SE of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the psu sites issues with the srefs is becoming annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not as bad as him but he has been wrong alot. If 'Wrong Alot' is the criteria, then I think they are all 'wrong alot'. Of course, without knowing the time parms of the criteria, it makes it awfully hard to comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM is suppressed and way south of 12z, interesting after seeing the srefs come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 srefs are interesting. as has been the case with the gfs ensembles there are a couple of members that are really amped and NW with just about everything else completely out to sea. the result is a unique looking precip and snow prob distribution. with relatively similar looking odds for .25 and .5 precip (almost 1" as well really) over the s coast and a similarly funny looking snow probs over the MA and NE with low probs for 1, 4 and 8" They become sort of useless, but I suppose it illustrates to the forecaster that there are a variety of solutions. Of course it's up to he or she to recognize if they are of any value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z nam out to 54 now, doesn't look much different then 12z. Out to 60: definitely going SE of 12z. Yea, the ht lines in the east seem to be sagging south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Northern stream is way too fast and the southern stream is held back on this run. Precip isnt even into dc at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM is suppressed and way south of 12z, interesting after seeing the srefs come north. SREFs are useless this winter beyond 36 or so hours. I feel bad for our friends to the south who are now being infected with the same suck we've had all winter. It's worst when you first catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I feel bad for our friends to the south who are now being infected with the same suck we've had all winter. It's worst when you first catch it. I'd argue their winter has sucked a bit worse than ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 They become sort of useless, but I suppose it illustrates to the forecaster that there are a variety of solutions. Of course it's up to he or she to recognize if they are of any value. yeah to me it actually highlights how careful you have to be with ens means. the sref probs are better closer in when the solutions are fairly similar and you can start to work through the subtle differences etc. but in this case...it's like 5 or 6 out of 15 or 21 or whatever the number is really screwing with the average. meanwhile...nam looks like it's going to screw DC too. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Northern stream is way too fast and the southern stream is held back on this run. Precip isnt even into dc at 12z Sunday. The northern s/w is a little slower vs 12z, but it just gives us the confluent middle finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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