HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So an amped up STJ SS heads due east at the NC border, Pos NAO with lifting out confluence. Nice, put that in your analogs and smoke it. This has been a winter of extremely weird ways to screw NE... just another feather in the old cap.Worse than '79/'80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This has been a winter of extremely weird ways to screw NE... just another feather in the old cap.Worse than '79/'80? Very much so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Srefs bumped north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 And to be fair, some of us only need it to come north by 30 miles or so. Not sure about Cosgrove beyond thinking he's not very good at this forecasting business. Good luck, You have a better chance of that verifying then us getting this beyond 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EC ensembles looked similar to the op. Maybe a hair faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EC ensembles looked similar to the op. Maybe a hair faster. It wasn't as flat exiting NC as the op was, but that really is a moot point with the overall depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey we all can look forward to the -23 850s at day 15! SREFS kiss SNE but all the spread is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Love that analisys SnowNH....its true..and I believe the models will do an about face late tonight and tomorrow regarding this system...And once again by tomorrow we will all be wondering..WTF is going on....I agree with you bout the short waves...just to many varibles in the pot of concern here...The earlier GFS was discounted because of bad data input..I don't know or care what others think here..but I just think its a bit early to write this off for New England... my opinion only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Love that analisys SnowNH....its true..and I believe the models will do an about face late tonight and tomorrow regarding this system...And once again by tomorrow we will all be wondering..WTF is going on....I agree with you bout the short waves...just to many varibles in the pot of concern here...The earlier GFS was discounted because of bad data input..I don't know or care what others think here..but I just think its a bit early to write this off for New England... my opinion only... Every model and its ENS say whiff bro, maybe tomorrow will be different but besides your gut there is zero scientific support for anything worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Love that analisys SnowNH....its true..and I believe the models will do an about face late tonight and tomorrow regarding this system...And once again by tomorrow we will all be wondering..WTF is going on....I agree with you bout the short waves...just to many varibles in the pot of concern here...The earlier GFS was discounted because of bad data input..I don't know or care what others think here..but I just think its a bit early to write this off for New England... my opinion only... hmmmmm.... supports my earlier claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F16%2F2012+15UTC&rname=PRECIP+MEANSPRD&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=087&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M SREFs bumped north. Spread far north too. Why do I do this to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 hmmmmm.... supports my earlier claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still a weird spread at 500mb, at hr 72. Seems like some of the models are a bit of a disagreement with how they handle the nrn stream. However, the mean didn't look all that bizarre to me. Looked sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 nam is running 15 to 30 minutes late wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 nam is running 15 to 30 minutes late wonder why? It takes time to enter those initialization errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 must be becasue to me threw 15 it looks alot better It takes time to enter those initialization errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah well when the science part of it fails,you have to use your gut feeling...And yesterday and today,clearly shows that the models cannot handle these short waves and how to incorporate them into the forecast...They are computer generated models,computers screw up,bad data,..I apologize if you don't like my view... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 crew to our south is convinced this comes north, Cosgrove talking about it making it to Portland Maine. Rookies in the winter of 2012. Can you tell me where I can read Cosgrove's take on this? Or where the reference comes from? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can you tell me where I can read Cosgrove's take on this? Or where the reference comes from? thanks. Facebook I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 what is the NAM doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 just read in the mid atlantic thread that the euro had initialization errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 what is the NAM doing? Waiting for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From Larry Cosgrove There are two factors which support the weekend storm threat taking a 1) farther north track and 2) having greater intensity and warmer thermal array. Check out the GOES WEST full disk and the firehose subtropical jet stream (see http://goe...s.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_sml_png/latest.png) that tapes the equatorial pacific Ocean. This will give the storm (now over the Sonoran Desert) a latitude boost and energize the precipitation potential through added convection and general mTw advection. Also, I noticed that the GFS ensemble group is a shade north with its 500MB disturbance. Bottom line: the big cities get some rain with the snow, but everybody below Portland ME should se something from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Taking its sweet time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 just read in the mid atlantic thread that the euro had initialization errors When a model doesn't show a hit there's always initialization errors to fall back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Like I said on DT's page, Cosgrove is about the only hope left for NE. There are other mets who think this has a small CHANCE to be a hit here, but he's the only one I've seen left that thinks it is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From Larry Cosgrove There are two factors which support the weekend storm threat taking a 1) farther north track and 2) having greater intensity and warmer thermal array. Check out the GOES WEST full disk and the firehose subtropical jet stream (see http://goe...s.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_sml_png/latest.png) that tapes the equatorial pacific Ocean. This will give the storm (now over the Sonoran Desert) a latitude boost and energize the precipitation potential through added convection and general mTw advection. Also, I noticed that the GFS ensemble group is a shade north with its 500MB disturbance. Bottom line: the big cities get some rain with the snow, but everybody below Portland ME should se something from this storm. That sounds like a track that avoids GC--or at best gives minimal qpf. Meanwhile, things whitening up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 "Alright, who broke the NAM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM still only out to 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 When a model doesn't show a hit there's always initialization errors to fall back on. I was just going to say the same thing. People will write anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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