Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Any other year this would have come north..even earlier this winter..it would have come so far north to give us rain.. I hope this proves my point about the GFS..if it hasn't well then I don't know what to say lol. I guess this means you don't have to forever pay homage to the GFS or whatever it was you said you would do yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol. I guess this means you don't have to forever pay homage to the GFS or whatever it was you said you would do yesterday. Well he'll continue to blow forecasts if he's only hugging one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 even this would have been gone in a day or two--looks like another week of above normal temps coming...Far SNE looks to be in the 50's on 2 days We would have held onto it a little longer here with snow already in place, But the ski areas and mtns sure could have used it, Need bob to change the thread title to POSII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 To your credit, you never bought the GFS solution at all. Kudos A lot of people didn't. Very impressed, granted many knowledgeable people told you guys not to buy it. Most listened lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Alas. At least it's snowing here now. Maybe I'll get the bare patches filled back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS should not be used as any percent of anyone's forecast..EVER.. Point proven. case closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 crew to our south is convinced this comes north, Cosgrove talking about it making it to Portland Maine. Rookies in the winter of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 crew to our south is convinced this comes north, Cosgrove talking about it making it to Portland Maine. Rookies in the winter of 2012. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS should not be used as any percent of anyone's forecast..EVER.. Point proven. case closed You'll be burned more often than not, if you totally ignore it. If mets only use gfs or euro, that's their fault. That's why you have ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Any future storm threats on the euro? lol I guess not I'l be on here tonight hoping for this is the 1 out of 100 storms that comes north to slam us in this set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You'll be burned more often than not, if you totally ignore it. If mets only use gfs or euro, that's their fault. That's why you have ensembles. Let's be honest, if we didn't have Euro products forecasts wouldn't be much better today than 15 years ago. I just don't see that the NAM and GFS as currently running are significantly better in the 36-90 hour window than years ago. Of course the ETA didn't go beyond 48, but you get the drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You'll be burned more often than not, if you totally ignore it. If mets only use gfs or euro, that's their fault. That's why you have ensembles. Many of the GEFS and the mean had us getting hit or crushed..All phail's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's be honest, if we didn't have Euro products forecasts wouldn't be much better today than 15 years ago. I just don't see that the NAM and GFS as currently running are significantly better in the 36-90 hour window than years ago. Of course the ETA didn't go beyond 48, but you get the drift. But the point is, you'll always be a better forecaster if you blend a forecast with the data given, than just ripping off one model. I do that every day. It's piss poor forecasting to always use one model. There are certainly times where I throw a model out and yes the GFS sometimes is that model, but you can't ignore it..especially when you have a set of guidance known as ensembles that use multiple perturbations to simulate chaos in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well a whiff is staring us in the face, but I'd give it another 24 hrs if I was on the Cape. Still a little too early to completely dismiss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As Richard Pryor would say...."Well fuk it then!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This one is all done. The only hope was the earlier GFS solutions, once the main northern system got so far east we were screwed. Euro is a big ole' miss. GFS is still about 12 hours late to the party. Dude, how many times are you going to say its over? Cool. That means you don't need to post after every 6 hours of a model run about how bad it is. Actually that means you don't have to post at all in this thread. Ill tell you one thing. Something seems fishy about every model showing pretty much the same thing 3 days out. When the hell is the last time that happened? Also, have you guys been following the winter of 2011-2012? There hasn't been a time all year where models nailed a storm 72 hours out. Heck the last storm shifted 50 miles in the last 6 hours. The models have no effing clue on what to do with these shortwaves. Prediction: wagons north from here on out. March 2001 style. All in. Naked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dude, how many times are you going to say its over? Cool. That means you don't need to post after every 6 hours of a model run about how bad it is. Actually that means you don't have to post at all in this thread. Ill tell you one thing. Something seems fishy about every model showing pretty much the same thing 3 days out. When the hell is the last time that happened? Also, have you guys been following the winter of 2011-2012? There hasn't been a time all year where models nailed a storm 72 hours out. Heck the last storm shifted 50 miles in the last 6 hours. The models have no effing clue on what to do with these shortwaves. Prediction: wagons north from here on out. March 2001 style. All in. Naked. Good insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As Richard Pryor would say...."Well fuk it then!" As sad as it is, I suspect there are some folksk on this board who don't know who Richard Pryor is--or was as the case may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dude, how many times are you going to say its over? Cool. That means you don't need to post after every 6 hours of a model run about how bad it is. Actually that means you don't have to post at all in this thread. Ill tell you one thing. Something seems fishy about every model showing pretty much the same thing 3 days out. When the hell is the last time that happened? Also, have you guys been following the winter of 2011-2012? There hasn't been a time all year where models nailed a storm 72 hours out. Heck the last storm shifted 50 miles in the last 6 hours. The models have no effing clue on what to do with these shortwaves. Prediction: wagons north from here on out. March 2001 style. All in. Naked. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well a whiff is staring us in the face, but I'd give it another 24 hrs if I was on the Cape. Still a little too early to completely dismiss it. I would put the chances of NYC north getting a storm at 20% ... a bit higher towards the Cape/Islands... but the ironic thing is there may be BL issues along the coast so it may be a moot point... bottom line I'm not completely ready to write this off as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 crew to our south is convinced this comes north, Cosgrove talking about it making it to Portland Maine. Rookies in the winter of 2012. In a normal winter with a system that amped and its locale, It would end up a hugger or an inland runner, Not this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Any future storm threats on the euro? lol yep - November 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 But the point is, you'll always be a better forecaster if you blend a forecast with the data given, than just ripping off one model. I do that every day. It's piss poor forecasting to always use one model. There are certainly times where I throw a model out and yes the GFS sometimes is that model, but you can't ignore it..especially when you have a set of guidance known as ensembles that use multiple perturbations to simulate chaos in the atmosphere. 1) There's a difference between a professional forecaster and WOTY. 2) I remember my Tropical Met prof saying that it's been mathematically proven that even a bad/terrible forecast improves the forecast consensus - I'd love to have a look at that proof, lol, but it illustrates your point above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yep - November 16, 2012 Sweet, early start to winter next year, sounds good. Btw guys, DT's first call map is coming out at 5pm apparently...I'm guessing this will be the jinx we need to send this north. That felt like a really snowNH thing to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would put the chances of NYC north getting a storm at 20% ... a bit higher towards the Cape/Islands... but the ironic thing is there may be BL issues along the coast so it may be a moot point... bottom line I'm not completely ready to write this off as of yet. There is usually something weird that happens with these. Either it defies everything I know and moves east of SAV or somehow swings northeast and gets the Cape. However, working against most of the stereotypes, is the flow across Canada and wavelength spacing, which sucks. I have little hope for areas around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In a normal winter with a system that amped and its locale, It would end up a hugger or an inland runner, Not this year.. And to be fair, some of us only need it to come north by 30 miles or so. Not sure about Cosgrove beyond thinking he's not very good at this forecasting business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So an amped up STJ SS heads due east at the NC border, Pos NAO with lifting out confluence. Nice, put that in your analogs and smoke it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dude, how many times are you going to say its over? Cool. That means you don't need to post after every 6 hours of a model run about how bad it is. Actually that means you don't have to post at all in this thread. Ill tell you one thing. Something seems fishy about every model showing pretty much the same thing 3 days out. When the hell is the last time that happened? Also, have you guys been following the winter of 2011-2012? There hasn't been a time all year where models nailed a storm 72 hours out. Heck the last storm shifted 50 miles in the last 6 hours. The models have no effing clue on what to do with these shortwaves. Prediction: wagons north from here on out. March 2001 style. All in. Naked. You have not had a meltdown in a few days. This one should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So an amped up STJ SS heads due east at the NC border, Pos NAO with lifting out confluence. Nice, put that in your analogs and smoke it. Well it still has 84 hrs to give se areas some snow, so I wouldn't rule that out. Doesn't look great for the rest of us, but we'll see how the next 24 hrs go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nam only out to 3hr but there is already alot of changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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