Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Another system, same winter. Big Big late February incoming. Euro will deliver the kill shot shortly, thus ending this 24-36 hours of hope in a hopeless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 OT: what is the season with the least snowfall in ALB-ORH-BOS ? ...is this so called futility record even possible ?? i believe bos-alb is firmly in the game ...orh ? someone's gotta know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 But the GFS errors were at h12 and h24 and then propogated out. That's unusual even for the GFS. well i'm not saying the model is terrific. i'm just saying we are hyper-sensitive in here because we look so closely at everything and every detail of every model run. they are going to shift around. but, in the end, imo they do well. of course every now and then we see an absolute egg dropped by guidance, but that's not as often as we like to think...it's just that we micro-analyze everything down to our own back yards in here...it's what we do in these forums...and it makes errors look larger but if someone is trying to hone in on a forecast for 5 days out...you wouldn't rely on just the GFS anyway (i hope) and you wouldn't take it verbatim (again, i hope)...so if it failed to verify a forecast at 5 days...or even 4 days....shame on the user for thinking it was going to be dead nuts right and shame on the forecaster for calling something so detailed at that lead time. given the number of forecast tools available, it's just a small piece to the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS looks like it's pretty spot on with the 00z ec ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS looks like it's pretty spot on with the 00z ec ens. It's like they run the GFS in an alternate universe, it's seemingly always 12 hours behind the euro lately. It'll catch up to the 12z run tonight. Another near perfect +8 to +10 day down here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 scott i know you said you are forecasting for the N.E corridor for this storm but i mean you don't give more of a 20% shot of boston seeing an inch out of this storm do you Yeah it's pretty low. But, we are 84 hrs out, and funnier things have happened with these srn guys coming out of the gulf. Any little shuffle in the s/w's and it could have a pretty big outcome..especially se areas. I've seen it too many times. However, this is a hostile pattern to really bring this storm to the 40/70 BM. Like we said yesterday, everything would have to work in perfect harmony, and I think it's just too much to ask right now...especially when you look at what's going on across NAMR. We still have stuff out in the NW Canada area and that area has been known to have modeling errors, so we may still see shifts in either direction. My gut says this will not be anything of significance for the region, but I also can't rule out a closer graze job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's like they run the GFS in an alternate universe, it's seemingly always 12 hours behind the euro lately. It'll catch up to the 12z run tonight. Another near perfect +8 to +10 day down here today. Snow showers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well i'm not saying the model is terrific. i'm just saying we are hyper-sensitive in here because we look so closely at everything and every detail of every model run. they are going to shift around. but, in the end, imo they do well. of course every now and then we see an absolute egg dropped by guidance, but that's not as often as we like to think...it's just that we micro-analyze everything down to our own back yards in here...it's what we do in these forums...and it makes errors look larger but if someone is trying to hone in on a forecast for 5 days out...you wouldn't rely on just the GFS anyway (i hope) and you wouldn't take it verbatim (again, i hope)...so if it failed to verify a forecast at 5 days...or even 4 days....shame on the user for thinking it was going to be dead nuts right and shame on the forecaster for calling something so detailed at that lead time. given the number of forecast tools available, it's just a small piece to the puzzle. good post, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Another system, same winter. I think it's almost time to fast forward to springtime. This is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Snow showers here. precip shield looks nice for you later in the pm pete enjoy. hope your snow at 1400' later scott, regarding how north this storm could go.....seems the 50/50 needs to be further N or alligned better wouldn't hurt either? or am i out to lunch on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well i'm not saying the model is terrific. i'm just saying we are hyper-sensitive in here because we look so closely at everything and every detail of every model run. they are going to shift around. but, in the end, imo they do well. of course every now and then we see an absolute egg dropped by guidance, but that's not as often as we like to think...it's just that we micro-analyze everything down to our own back yards in here...it's what we do in these forums...and it makes errors look larger but if someone is trying to hone in on a forecast for 5 days out...you wouldn't rely on just the GFS anyway (i hope) and you wouldn't take it verbatim (again, i hope)...so if it failed to verify a forecast at 5 days...or even 4 days....shame on the user for thinking it was going to be dead nuts right and shame on the forecaster for calling something so detailed at that lead time. given the number of forecast tools available, it's just a small piece to the puzzle. You can't repeat this enough. I think the 4 times a day run of the GFS leads to the bashing that some do in here. I could care less what the day 6 or even 5 op run shows, especially if the ensembles don't agree. I literally have detached myself from what it shows and have no emotion. Of course we all look at it, but you cannot take what it shows verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You can't repeat this enough. I think the 4 times a day run of the GFS leads to the bashing that some do in here. I could care less what the day 6 or even 5 op run shows, especially if the ensembles don't agree. I literally have detached myself from what it shows and have no emotion. Of course we all look at it, but you cannot take what it shows verbatim. That has nothing to do with it being totally wrong with the handling of the key s/w at 12 and 24 hours for about 6 runs. You guys are talking about D5 and D6...the reason it was wrong at D3 D4 D5 is because it was unable to forecast 12-24 hours out near BC. It's not usually anywhere near that bad which is why I wonder about the data ingest. That's piss poor, let's not sugar coat it. Everything else that came after was the result of some pretty big errors H12 to H24 on several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm wondering if we now actually want s/w 2 and 3 out of the way faster, so that s/w 6 can phase into 5 and 4 and have room to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That has nothing to do with it being totally wrong with the handling of the key s/w at 12 and 24 hours for about 6 runs. You guys are talking about D5 and D6...the reason it was wrong at D3 D4 D5 is because it was unable to forecast 12-24 hours out near BC. It's not usually anywhere near that bad which is why I wonder about the data ingest. That's piss poor, let's not sugar coat it. Everything else that came after was the result of some pretty big errors H12 to H24 on several runs. Yeah it blew that, and the euro also mishandled some stuff up to the north of the MT/Canada border too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You can't repeat this enough. I think the 4 times a day run of the GFS leads to the bashing that some do in here. I could care less what the day 6 or even 5 op run shows, especially if the ensembles don't agree. I literally have detached myself from what it shows and have no emotion. Of course we all look at it, but you cannot take what it shows verbatim. Slight tangent but I wish everyone would do this with all models runs beyond 72h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm wondering if we now actually want s/w 2 and 3 out of the way faster, so that s/w 6 can phase into 5 and 4 and have room to amplify That's what we were saying this morning..well I think that's what you mean. Get the nrn stuff out quicker. Don't know if it's doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm wondering if we now actually want s/w 2 and 3 out of the way faster, so that s/w 6 can phase into 5 and 4 and have room to amplify That's my hope, slower is mucho better. How much rain did LA have yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You can't repeat this enough. I think the 4 times a day run of the GFS leads to the bashing that some do in here. I could care less what the day 6 or even 5 op run shows, especially if the ensembles don't agree. I literally have detached myself from what it shows and have no emotion. Of course we all look at it, but you cannot take what it shows verbatim. i think that's one of the hardest things to do but something i have been working on for quite some time now. i think these bad winters actually help with that a bit. lol. that's kinda of what i was getting at yesterday or the day before with respect to these day 7 "threats" sucking. they suck when there is nothing meaningful in front of them to forecast because as someone who enjoys weather, it's hard not to look and analyze a pending storm...but it's so not worth the effort for something that 1) may just not happen at all and/or 2) the details of which won't be known until you down inside of a few days or hours. there is definitely some truth to "i don't want to be in the bullseye 5 days out!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks to be a couple distinct camps on the 12z GFS ensm members. About 50/50 wiff vs grazing http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i think that's one of the hardest things to do but something i have been working on for quite some time now. i think these bad winters actually help with that a bit. lol. that's kinda of what i was getting at yesterday or the day before with respect to these day 7 "threats" sucking. they suck when there is nothing meaningful in front of them to forecast because as someone who enjoys weather, it's hard not to look and analyze a pending storm...but it's so not worth the effort for something that 1) may just not happen at all and/or 2) the details of which won't be known until you down inside of a few days or hours. there is definitely some truth to "i don't want to be in the bullseye 5 days out!" It's hard not to get excited when you see a day 5 bomb, but then I think back to the disappointments...lol. It is a hard thing to do..even for pros. I usually raise an eyebrow if I see the ensembles and other guidance hint at it, but even that isn't a lock for a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That has nothing to do with it being totally wrong with the handling of the key s/w at 12 and 24 hours for about 6 runs. You guys are talking about D5 and D6...the reason it was wrong at D3 D4 D5 is because it was unable to forecast 12-24 hours out near BC. It's not usually anywhere near that bad which is why I wonder about the data ingest. That's piss poor, let's not sugar coat it. Everything else that came after was the result of some pretty big errors H12 to H24 on several runs. yeah i know what you are saying. it failed with that issue. no real argument there at all. but if we look at the overall picture...it's not really a big deal in the grand scheme of forecasting..i guess that's what i'm saying. regardless...doesn't change the fact that this blows. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the euro will be a bit flatter, than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's what we were saying this morning..well I think that's what you mean. Get the nrn stuff out quicker. Don't know if it's doable. In a progressive pattern, this is doable. This has been the trend this winter. It's being discussed in th NYC forum, but remember how the PV last weekend was forecast to enter NNE, and instead of moved out really quickly? I'm not sure if it'll be enough, but I definitely think there's a good chance the northern stream stuff keeps trending faster, along with a stronger southern stream. Additionally, last weekend, the southern stream disturbance trended stronger with time, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks to be a couple distinct camps on the 12z GFS ensm members. About 50/50 wiff vs grazing http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html couple of OK ones in there. hopefully the euro isn't a complete swing and miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In a progressive pattern, this is doable. This has been the trend this winter. It's being discussed in th NYC forum, but remember how the PV last weekend was forecast to enter NNE, and instead of moved out really quickly? I'm not sure if it'll be enough, but I definitely think there's a good chance the northern stream stuff keeps trending faster, along with a stronger southern stream. Additionally, last weekend, the southern stream disturbance trended stronger with time, too. You'll need the southern stuff to be slower as well...sort of both in tandem. Euro is actually slowing the srn stuff down right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 couple of OK ones in there. hopefully the euro isn't a complete swing and miss. probably an open wave hitting Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, I might be wrong with my initial thoughts. It's slower with the srn stream energy and grabs a piece of nrn stream vorticity at hr 72 over NB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You'll need the southern stuff to be slower as well...sort of both in tandem. Euro is actually slowing the srn stuff down right now. Slower then 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You'll need the southern stuff to be slower as well...sort of both in tandem. Euro is actually slowing the srn stuff down right now. True. It's slower which I like, but it still appears to be a bit flatter up in the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro kinda screws the DC folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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